Keepers for next season - having trouble picking

[reshef316]

Hi to all

This year is my first ever playing fantasy baseball, and I fear I may have fallen into a black hole from which there's no return...
But, with the year almost done i'm nearing the point where I may need to start picking my keepers...and this is where I'm having problems...

Until this year I did not follow MLB that fanatically so my knowledge of players & stats is not that great, and i kind of "lucked" into a decent team (i'm fourth in a 10 team league) so I'm still learning the ins & outs of the league and the game.

That being said, I'm here to ask for your opinion on how to plan for my next season, and here's the info on my league & team...

as mentioned - it's a 10 team league, H2H points.
roster breakdown is:
1 - 1B, 1 - 2B, 1 - SS, 1 - 3B, 1 - C, 1 - 2B/SS, 1 - 1B/3B, 5 - OF, 1 - UTIL, 8 - P, 2 - RP, 4 - Bench, 2 - DL.

batting points - 1 point per base hit (2 for double, etc.), 1 point per run, 1 point per RBI, 2 points per SB, -0.5 point per K, 1 point per BB, -2 points per GIDP, -1 points per CS,

pitching points - 2 points per inning pitched, 1 points per K, 10 points per W, 10 points per Save, -0.5 points per BB, 5 points per HD, 3 points per QS, -5 points per BS, -5 points per L, -1 points per ER, -0.5 points per H, 5 points per SO, 5 points per CG, 15 points per NH, 25 points per PG.

other things about league rules - lineups lock at start of week, player acquisition system is waivers, waiver wait period is 2 days, and you're moved to last after a claim.

For next season we can only have 6 keepers...
and here's my team this week (including guys on the DL) -

C - Miguel Olivo
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Ricky Weeks
3B - Jose Bautista (don't blame me - espn lists him as OF/3B)
SS - Derek Jeter
2B/SS - Alex Gonzalez
1B/3B - James Loney
OF - Alex Rios
OF - Chris Young
OF - Ryan Ludwick
OF - Johnny Damon
OF - Austin Jackson
UTIL - Jonny Gomes
Bench - Nelson Cruz
Bench - Colby Rasmus
Bench - Gaby Sanchez

P - Roy Halladay
P - Matt Garza
P - Jared Weaver
P - Brett Cecil
P - Jonathon Niese
P - Dallas Braden
P - Kevin Correia
P - Randy Wolf
RP - Rafael Soriano
RP - John Axford
Bench - Jason Vargas
DL - Andy Pettite
DL - Carlos Silva

So...here's what I'm thinking...
Keeping Halladay is a no brainer, so is Ryan howard...but that's when things get messy for me...
can Weeks and Bautista have repeat seasons? can Weaver be such a K machine again? is Garza worth keeping or should I got for Soriano instead? and what about Jeter?

6 keepers (though i can keep less and get another pick in the draft)...what would you do?
Any help would be greatly appreciated

Respectfully - A fantasy Noob.

[onitapgr]

You've got to think who of your players would you take in the first 6 rounds next year, if there were no keepers?

Definitely Howard and Halladay......I would also also keep Rios, Weeks, and Cruz...Weaver could go either way...but he's the only one I would pick for your 6th spot...Definitely don't keep a closer, you can probably get Soriano in the 11th-12th round.

[pressley87]

1. Howard
2. Rios
3. Halladay
4. Cruz

Then i would be willing to bet you can get someone better than weeks. but if not hold onto weeks. but keep those 4 for sure. Cruz has shown top 5 when healthy. Can't discard him.

[dleoboyd]

Here's my take:

1. Roy Halladay (will probably return 1st round value)
2. Ryan Howard (on the decline, but still powerful and solid in the 2nd round)
3. Nelson Cruz (in his peak - if he can stay healthy and get 550 ABs he will outperform most 3rd round picks)
4. Jered Weaver (even if his K/9 decreases he's a solid value in the 4th round)
5. Colby Rasmus (his power numbers this year are really raising eyebrows. He's got some contact issues this year, but has been better in the past. Look for him to consolidate a bit in 2011 - he's got a good shot at .270-.280 with 30 HRs and 15 SB)
6. Jose Bautista (I'm not a firm believer, but how can you let a guy who hits 40+ HRs and qualifies at 3B slip away? There's nothing fluky about his numbers other than the fact that he's never approached this type of production previously).

[daswah]

Howard
Halladay
Weeks
Bautista
C. Young
Cruz

[silverlionlb]

Hmm, the first five that stand out to me are:

Howard
Halladay
Cruz
Weaver
Rios

The last spot is a bit of a toss up. I would probably go with Weeks as of right now, but it's hard to find fault with Rasmus or Bautista.