I can't drop any hitters obviously and I cant drop Lyon because i need 3 closers plus i have bailey on DL if i drop Lyon, so my question is with Jordan Zimermann pitching thursday, is it smart to add him and drop one of my SPs? They have all been excellent lately, but is Zimmerman better for the rest of the season? THIS IS A RE-DRAFT league! 100% WHIR!!!!!
Standard H2H 5x5 12 Man League C-John Buck 1B-Albert Pujols 2B-Robinson Cano 3B-Ryan Zimmerman SS-Hanley Ramirez OF-Josh Hamilton OF-Carlos Quentin OF-Shin soo choo UTIL-Utley
Nice rotation! If you really wanted Zimmerman, I'd drop Niese. I've read the Mets are putting him on a pitch count and are concerned about durability. If you think you can wait, I'd see how Zim does against the Cards before picking him up.
I think Zimmermann is a great add for keeper leaguers playing for 2011, but I don't think he has much value in shallow mixed leagues like this one. Rumor has it the Nats are going to have an even more restrictive pitch count on Zimmermann than they did on Strasburg......
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act, but a habit.
I wouldn't drop anyone pitching well for a guy they've already said is only going 5 innings max every start. His #'s look great, its just going to be very tough getting W's knowing you need a lead after 5 and the pen then has to hold it 4 innings each start
I would consider dropping Duensing. He's got a pretty ERA and W-L record so far, but there's a lot going on that screams regression imminent. His BABIP is .249, LOB% 84.5%, and HR/FB is 6.3%. Individually, each one of those numbers looks pretty unsustainable. If even just one or two of them regress as expected, he won't be nearly as useful moving forward as he has been. If they all do, he's a replacement level arm (at least fantasy-wise, as in he's no better than a lot of arms available for free on the wire). If I had to guess, I'd say of the three he might maintain the HR/FB. Its the least drastic of the three and Target Field has played pretty big, but if he slots into a small ballpark series like @TEX or @CWS sometime soon that number could easily regress as well. The averages for each are roughly .300 BABIP, 72.0% LOB%, and 9.0% HR/FB. Except in very unique cases, its pretty safe to assume pitchers can be projected to perform at these rates moving forward. There are always outliers, but generally speaking, for most pitchers each of these marks has more to do with luck than skill, and these are what most pitchers put up with average luck.
Personally, I would rather have Zimmermann than Duensing going forward, and almost certainly in a H2H league (in roto it would depend partly on what you need). Zimmermann is likely to have better peripherals and therefore more consistent week-to-week performance, as well as a higher rate of K/IP and a lower ERA. Even if he does throw fewer innings each remaining week of the season, I still think I'd prefer him. There's no reason to assume you'll be weak on wins, all of your other pitchers are solid and none are on dreadful teams, and most have quality offensive and bullpen support that should help you in that category. Wins the one cat where Duensing has more upside than Zimmermann, and its the least important one for your current roster, so I say go with Zimm.
I should add: You do have a number of arms who look like risks to be in innings limits, have their turns skipped, to be shut down, or perhaps sent to the pen. Latos, Niese, Hudson, and Minor are all concerns in this regard, and Zimmermann would be another, so its worth factoring that. Latos and Niese are probably both pretty safe, though expect their innings to be monitored and pitch counts to be strict. Hudson will probably get to about 170 IP before he becomes a risk to be shut down since he threw about 150 last year. He's at about 140 now, so that's 30 more, which means he's pretty safe for five more starts, while taking his regular turn in the rotation for the rest of the year he'd probably get more like seven. He's not a huge risk, but I wouldn't expect to get the same number of innings from him as a typical starter, and I wouldn't be prepared to rely on him in the season's final weeks, when in many H2H leagues it can count most. It looks like Minor is going to be skipped as frequently as the Braves can afford to skip him. I believe they're even stretching Kenshin Kawakami back out in the minors as insurance. They'll likely use Minor when they need a fifth starter since he's the better option, at least until/if they clinch a playoff spot. After they do clinch, I expect him to be shut down for the year, so keep an eye on the Braves performance. If they go on a winning streak, its probably a bad thing for Minor. I still think I'd prefer Zimmermann to Duensing, but if there is someone more stable available I would seriously consider it, even if they have a bit less upside.
I like your staff a lot, it seems like you've invested very little in pitching and are getting a whole lot out of it. I'm starting to think Westbrook is really undervalued. His peripherals have skyrocketed since coming to the NL, and he certainly wouldn't be the first ground-ball pitcher to see a complete reinvention under Dave Duncan. The Cardinals also have a very favorable schedule over the next few weeks. Outside of September 3-12th, when they face three of the NLs best offenses in the Reds, Brewers, and Braves, they have seven games against the Pirates (16th in the NL in runs scored), six against the Cubs (12th), four against the Nationals (14th), four against the Padres (9th), and three against the Astros (15th) before closing a season with a makeup game against the Rockies. That's 24 out of the remaining 35 games against pretty crappy offensive teams. Outside of the Rockies, they won't face an above average offense after Week 22, so depending on how your league is structured, if you can make it to the second round of the playoffs or put yourself in a good position in the standings by week 23, Westbrook could be a real ace-in-the-hole.
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by jdip5 » Tue Aug 24, 2010 4:52 pm 
