Closer...Short Term/Long Term?

[Wadderboiz]

I'm holding onto 2nd place...making a desperate push for 1st...trying to fend off the guy behind me. I can move up in saves and wins.

Right now I have:
R. Franklin
J. Axford

Waiver Wire:
Kuo
Lyon
Takahashi

Best guess which of the 2 finishes with the most saves for the rest of the year...its a keeper league so I guess which 2 do you think hold their job for next year as well?

[dleoboyd]

Ryan Franklin doesn't have typical closer-stuff and fell apart last year down the stretch. I don't trust him.

Axford has a very spotty MiLB record but has made a big jump in his BB/9 ratio this year at both the major and minor league levels. He's a GB guy and has had a great k/9 throughout his professional career, including this year in the majors. Despite Hoffman pilfering saves from time to time I think that Axford is clearly the #1 guy on this list for both this year and next year.

Kou us short for the job and is even fighting for saves with Dotel while Broxton is out. I wouldn't consider him a significant source for saves this year or next.

Lyon sucks - plain and simple. He may get a few saves this year, but it's just as likely he blows up and looses his job before he even has a chance to record a handful of saves. No upside here for next year.

Takahashi has the stuff to close and will be given the opportunity for the rest of the year. He's a lefty but could also get a shot at being the closer next year.

I guess the "safer" bet for saves this year and next is Franklin - mostly because he's got the most job security. If you're a gambling man and prefer to favor the peripherals when making roster decisions Takashashi could pay out huge, but he's far from a sure-thing.

If it was me and I was pushing for first and really needed saves, but also wanted to keep an eye on my keeper list and '11 roster, I'd go with Axford and Franklin.