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The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

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Re: The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

Postby StlSluggers » Mon Aug 16, 2010 2:13 pm

knapplc wrote:Barring calamity, China will be #1 and remain #1 for some time.

That'll take a little while... but, yeah.

And that's not exactly a pleasant thought to me, either. :-/
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Re: The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

Postby The Artful Dodger » Mon Aug 16, 2010 2:23 pm

The government is still the biggest restriction to China's growth, given that doing business as a foreign company is tough (i.e. forced joint venture, IP rights don't carry the same clout, privacy issues). That said, there's a massive demand for all kinds of products and services in China and it's too good to pass up on the sheer market opportunity. Personally, I'd move to China if the government wasn't so dodgy.
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Re: The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

Postby RedHopeful » Mon Aug 16, 2010 2:52 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:Personally, I'd move to China if the government wasn't so dodgy.

Interesting. For instance, their different methods of hygiene don't bother you?
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Re: The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

Postby StlSluggers » Mon Aug 16, 2010 3:09 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:Personally, I'd move to China if the government wasn't so dodgy.

I've thought about this, too. When the democratic mainstays of the world economy finally max out, the countries that will be the up-and-comers are nowhere most of us would want to live.

If you asked me where else I'd want to live, I'd say China has the economic future but I'll take Australia - the most reasonable government benefiting from China's ascension.
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Re: The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon Aug 16, 2010 3:11 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:Personally, I'd move to China if the government wasn't so dodgy.



are people in China restricted from going on the Fantasy Baseball Cafe?
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Re: The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Aug 16, 2010 5:07 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:The government is still the biggest restriction to China's growth, given that doing business as a foreign company is tough (i.e. forced joint venture, IP rights don't carry the same clout, privacy issues). That said, there's a massive demand for all kinds of products and services in China and it's too good to pass up on the sheer market opportunity. Personally, I'd move to China if the government wasn't so dodgy.


And that's the rub. The Chinese government makes it harder to do business in China if you are a foreign company. The want to foster the domestic companyies and they want technology to stay within their borders. Once the cost of labor rises something will have to change or the economy won't keep up this kind of growth.
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Re: The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

Postby StlSluggers » Mon Aug 16, 2010 5:31 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:The government is still the biggest restriction to China's growth, given that doing business as a foreign company is tough (i.e. forced joint venture, IP rights don't carry the same clout, privacy issues). That said, there's a massive demand for all kinds of products and services in China and it's too good to pass up on the sheer market opportunity. Personally, I'd move to China if the government wasn't so dodgy.


And that's the rub. The Chinese government makes it harder to do business in China if you are a foreign company. The want to foster the domestic companyies and they want technology to stay within their borders. Once the cost of labor rises something will have to change or the economy won't keep up this kind of growth.

Except that their commu-capitalist socio-economic combination gives them the luxury of keeping those wages artificially suppressed (granted, they can't completely enslave their people, but they can keep their labor force cheaper than most others). For that reason, their economic output is more likely capped at the lesser of population+technology (i.e.-productivity) or worldwide consumption.
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Re: The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

Postby The Artful Dodger » Mon Aug 16, 2010 5:43 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:The government is still the biggest restriction to China's growth, given that doing business as a foreign company is tough (i.e. forced joint venture, IP rights don't carry the same clout, privacy issues). That said, there's a massive demand for all kinds of products and services in China and it's too good to pass up on the sheer market opportunity. Personally, I'd move to China if the government wasn't so dodgy.


And that's the rub. The Chinese government makes it harder to do business in China if you are a foreign company. The want to foster the domestic companyies and they want technology to stay within their borders. Once the cost of labor rises something will have to change or the economy won't keep up this kind of growth.


Not only that but the censorship issue. For example, Facebook and Google are blocked from time to time, not always but it happens frequently enough that if you have a business that piggybacks on their traffic, then it's difficult to maneuver around that. Instead what you have in China are copycat businesses of successful companies in the free market world or a copycat of a successful Chinese-based company. For instance, social network sites aren't consolidated like here with Facebook, but rather there are literally hundreds of them, each of them drawing a sizable chunk. Also, about 20-25% of China's population has an Internet connection, which is a rough estimate of 400 million users and that will keep growing, as more money is dedicated to the infrastructure. Certainly a huge reason why Google renewed their license to do business in China, six months or so after refusing to operate in China in opposition to censorship of their search results.

As far as labor costs go, they are rising among "knowledge workers" (especially developers and engineers). From personal experience, hiring a developer from China for a project is a hit-or-miss thing, because the skill sets and depth of such knowledge vary greatly, relative to among developers in the industrialized world.
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Re: The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

Postby StlSluggers » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:56 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:Certainly a huge reason why Google renewed their license to do business in China, six months or so after refusing to operate in China in opposition to censorship of their search results.

I'll be damned

That sure didn't make the same splashy news headlines their withdrawal made, did it? And from the sounds of it, they didn't really seem to fix the censorship problem, either.

:-t
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Re: The Economy, Stock Market, and Whatever...

Postby The Artful Dodger » Tue Aug 17, 2010 12:04 am

StlSluggers wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:Certainly a huge reason why Google renewed their license to do business in China, six months or so after refusing to operate in China in opposition to censorship of their search results.

I'll be damned

That sure didn't make the same splashy news headlines their withdrawal made, did it? And from the sounds of it, they didn't really seem to fix the censorship problem, either.

:-t


No, it really didn't make big news. Then again, it wasn't shocking to see Google kiss and make up with the Chinese government, with little to no progress made, just because the market potential is too good to pass up.
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