The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Postby LloydChristmas » Thu Aug 05, 2010 10:30 pm

Phillies - Marlins
August 5

Game is tied, top of 9, Phillies at bat. ZERO outs, runners on 1st and 3rd. Jayson Worth has just singled. The Phillies Win Expectancy is almost 80%.

Image

Dom Brown grounds out to Gaby Sanchez who is playing on the bag. Raul Ibanez, for some reason, runs home on contact. He is promptly tagged out.

Phillies WE down to about 60%. Jayson Werth then decided to get picked off 2nd base, ostensibly because he was thinking about stealing 3rd base. See the following article for my exact thoughts on the situation. It almost directly mirrored the play that Dave Cameron wrote about yesterday in the Angels game.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -the-year/

But we're not done. Dom Brown, whom you might remember from earlier, decides to steal 2nd base. I don't have to tell you what happens.

The Phillies manage to drop their WE from about 80% to 25% with ONLY ONE BATTER MAKING AN OUT AT THE PLATE (and not even that really, a fielder's choice).

I'm eagerly awaiting Charlie Manuel blubbering about "making things happen" on the base paths and the other incomprehensible babbling that he is so good at.
LloydChristmas
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 157
Joined: 6 Jan 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Postby Ursa » Thu Aug 05, 2010 10:50 pm

On the bright side, they did manage to win it.
Ursa
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1935
(Past Year: 24)
Joined: 12 May 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Minneapolis

Re: The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Postby angelo285 » Fri Aug 06, 2010 10:02 am

how does their "win expectancy" drop all the way to 25%? OK, the Marlins still get to bat in the ninth, but isn't 25% a little low given the fact that they have a 50% mathematical chance of winning?
angelo285
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 195
Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Postby LloydChristmas » Fri Aug 06, 2010 10:07 am

angelo285 wrote:how does their "win expectancy" drop all the way to 25%? OK, the Marlins still get to bat in the ninth, but isn't 25% a little low given the fact that they have a 50% mathematical chance of winning?


I don't understand why you think it's 50/50 to win the game going into the bottom of the 9th...

The "mathematical chance of winning" is 25% for the Phillies going into the bottom of the 9th. What do you mean by mathematical chance of winning. What is your formula?

Read this and the subsequent links.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-win-expectancy/

Edit: The Phillies were actually 27.8% to win at the start of the bottom of the 9th for accuracy's sake
Last edited by LloydChristmas on Fri Aug 06, 2010 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
LloydChristmas
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 157
Joined: 6 Jan 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Postby angelo285 » Fri Aug 06, 2010 10:10 am

LloydChristmas wrote:
angelo285 wrote:how does their "win expectancy" drop all the way to 25%? OK, the Marlins still get to bat in the ninth, but isn't 25% a little low given the fact that they have a 50% mathematical chance of winning?


I don't understand why you think it's 50/50 to win the game going into the bottom of the 9th...

The "mathematical chance of winning" is 25% for the Phillies going into the bottom of the 9th. What do you mean by mathematical chance of winning. What is your formula?

Read this and the subsequent links.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-win-expectancy/


I don't think its 50/50, I just don't think it should be 75/25 just because the marlins have the final at bat. I was thinking more like, 60/40 or 65/35, but I don't have the statistics on that. I could definitely be wrong, but 75/25 seems a bit extreme.
angelo285
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 195
Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Postby LloydChristmas » Fri Aug 06, 2010 10:17 am

angelo285 wrote:
LloydChristmas wrote:
angelo285 wrote:how does their "win expectancy" drop all the way to 25%? OK, the Marlins still get to bat in the ninth, but isn't 25% a little low given the fact that they have a 50% mathematical chance of winning?


I don't understand why you think it's 50/50 to win the game going into the bottom of the 9th...

The "mathematical chance of winning" is 25% for the Phillies going into the bottom of the 9th. What do you mean by mathematical chance of winning. What is your formula?

Read this and the subsequent links.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-win-expectancy/


I don't think its 50/50, I just don't think it should be 75/25 just because the marlins have the final at bat. I was thinking more like, 60/40 or 65/35, but I don't have the statistics on that. I could definitely be wrong, but 75/25 seems a bit extreme.


The numbers specifically for last night Phillies/Marlins game do seem a little bit higher than the generic WE that the situation dictates. I'm seeing .634 on the table I'm looking at right now. I would suspect that Fangraphs inputs other variables such as who is pitching, hitting, etc. but that's purely a guess. A good catch on your part.
LloydChristmas
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 157
Joined: 6 Jan 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Postby kaiser » Fri Aug 06, 2010 10:32 am

Does the fact that the Marlins won that game in the bottom of the ninth, only to have the win taken away on an outrageously bad foul bal call from umpire Bob Davidson, have any effect on Phillies chances of winning?
Image
kaiser
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe Ranker
Posts: 5474
(Past Year: 428)
Joined: 8 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Genco Olive Oil Co.

Re: The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Postby Bloody Sox » Fri Aug 06, 2010 10:43 am

kaiser wrote:Does the fact that the Marlins won that game in the bottom of the ninth, only to have the win taken away on an outrageously bad foul bal call from umpire Bob Davidson, have any effect on Phillies chances of winning?

In fairness to the ump, he didn't have a great look at it. %-6
"The government cannot give to anyone anything that it does not first take from someone else"
Bloody Sox
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2147
(Past Year: 20)
Joined: 27 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Fenway Park, RF Roof Deck

Re: The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Postby kaiser » Fri Aug 06, 2010 10:56 am

So the Phillies and their fans were frustrated in the top of the 9th.

The Marlins and their fans were frustrated in the bottom of the 9th.

The Braves and their fans were also frustrated in the bottom of the 9th (when the bad call cost the Marlins a win and cost the Braves adding a game to their lead in the NL East).

And Balk-A-Day Bob Davidson sits in a nice, comfy chair in his hotel room, drinking a beer.

The world is a frustrating place.
Image
kaiser
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe Ranker
Posts: 5474
(Past Year: 428)
Joined: 8 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Genco Olive Oil Co.

Re: The Most Frustrating Inning of Baseball Ever Played

Postby m16a » Fri Aug 06, 2010 12:54 pm

As happy as I am that the Phils won, that was clearly a fair ball. A wild game nonetheless. ;-D
m16a
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

Cafe WriterFootball Mod
Posts: 462
(Past Year: 53)
Joined: 22 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Evil lightside fiend...!


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ray Zorback, Surfs up and 10 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Apr. 18
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Toronto at Cleveland
(2:20 pm)
LA Angels at Detroit
(7:05 pm)
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
St. Louis at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Miami at Miami
(7:08 pm)
indoors
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Seattle at Seattle
(7:10 pm)
Atlanta at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Baltimore at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Chi White Sox at Texas
(8:05 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Philadelphia at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
Houston at Oakland
(10:05 pm)
Arizona at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)
San Francisco at San Diego
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact