Game is tied, top of 9, Phillies at bat. ZERO outs, runners on 1st and 3rd. Jayson Worth has just singled. The Phillies Win Expectancy is almost 80%.
Dom Brown grounds out to Gaby Sanchez who is playing on the bag. Raul Ibanez, for some reason, runs home on contact. He is promptly tagged out.
Phillies WE down to about 60%. Jayson Werth then decided to get picked off 2nd base, ostensibly because he was thinking about stealing 3rd base. See the following article for my exact thoughts on the situation. It almost directly mirrored the play that Dave Cameron wrote about yesterday in the Angels game.
But we're not done. Dom Brown, whom you might remember from earlier, decides to steal 2nd base. I don't have to tell you what happens.
The Phillies manage to drop their WE from about 80% to 25% with ONLY ONE BATTER MAKING AN OUT AT THE PLATE (and not even that really, a fielder's choice).
I'm eagerly awaiting Charlie Manuel blubbering about "making things happen" on the base paths and the other incomprehensible babbling that he is so good at.
how does their "win expectancy" drop all the way to 25%? OK, the Marlins still get to bat in the ninth, but isn't 25% a little low given the fact that they have a 50% mathematical chance of winning?
angelo285 wrote:how does their "win expectancy" drop all the way to 25%? OK, the Marlins still get to bat in the ninth, but isn't 25% a little low given the fact that they have a 50% mathematical chance of winning?
I don't understand why you think it's 50/50 to win the game going into the bottom of the 9th...
The "mathematical chance of winning" is 25% for the Phillies going into the bottom of the 9th. What do you mean by mathematical chance of winning. What is your formula?
angelo285 wrote:how does their "win expectancy" drop all the way to 25%? OK, the Marlins still get to bat in the ninth, but isn't 25% a little low given the fact that they have a 50% mathematical chance of winning?
I don't understand why you think it's 50/50 to win the game going into the bottom of the 9th...
The "mathematical chance of winning" is 25% for the Phillies going into the bottom of the 9th. What do you mean by mathematical chance of winning. What is your formula?
I don't think its 50/50, I just don't think it should be 75/25 just because the marlins have the final at bat. I was thinking more like, 60/40 or 65/35, but I don't have the statistics on that. I could definitely be wrong, but 75/25 seems a bit extreme.
angelo285 wrote:how does their "win expectancy" drop all the way to 25%? OK, the Marlins still get to bat in the ninth, but isn't 25% a little low given the fact that they have a 50% mathematical chance of winning?
I don't understand why you think it's 50/50 to win the game going into the bottom of the 9th...
The "mathematical chance of winning" is 25% for the Phillies going into the bottom of the 9th. What do you mean by mathematical chance of winning. What is your formula?
I don't think its 50/50, I just don't think it should be 75/25 just because the marlins have the final at bat. I was thinking more like, 60/40 or 65/35, but I don't have the statistics on that. I could definitely be wrong, but 75/25 seems a bit extreme.
The numbers specifically for last night Phillies/Marlins game do seem a little bit higher than the generic WE that the situation dictates. I'm seeing .634 on the table I'm looking at right now. I would suspect that Fangraphs inputs other variables such as who is pitching, hitting, etc. but that's purely a guess. A good catch on your part.
Does the fact that the Marlins won that game in the bottom of the ninth, only to have the win taken away on an outrageously bad foul bal call from umpire Bob Davidson, have any effect on Phillies chances of winning?
kaiser wrote:Does the fact that the Marlins won that game in the bottom of the ninth, only to have the win taken away on an outrageously bad foul bal call from umpire Bob Davidson, have any effect on Phillies chances of winning?
In fairness to the ump, he didn't have a great look at it.
"The government cannot give to anyone anything that it does not first take from someone else"
So the Phillies and their fans were frustrated in the top of the 9th.
The Marlins and their fans were frustrated in the bottom of the 9th.
The Braves and their fans were also frustrated in the bottom of the 9th (when the bad call cost the Marlins a win and cost the Braves adding a game to their lead in the NL East).
And Balk-A-Day Bob Davidson sits in a nice, comfy chair in his hotel room, drinking a beer.
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by LloydChristmas » Thu Aug 05, 2010 10:30 pm 
