Move Hamilton to Upgrade Pitching ??

[mm92280]

I have quietly made Josh Hamilton available in my 20 team H2H keeper league to see what type of offers I could get for him, as I know I need pitching help. I feel that I need one more pretty good starting pitcher and another closer to help my team out.

Well, another owner has offered me this deal:

I give:
Josh Hamilton
Drew Stubbs
Ryan Dempster
Carlos Marmol

I would get:
Brett Gardner
Adam LaRoche
Roy Oswalt
Carl Pavano
Francisco Cordero


Now, my thinking in doing a trade centering around Hamilton is that I need to get a good SP to upgrade my staff along with a closer to help Marmol while also not killing my offense (which means I need a little offense back). This seems to give me some offense back, as LaRoche, while somewhat maligned, does actually have 17 homers and 71 RBIs, which is only 4 RBIs shy of Hamilton's season total. Of course, he doesn't have Hamilton's BA or OPS but I don't expect to get anything remotely close to Hamilton's numbers in those cats in return. Gardner could be a quality outfield option, as long as his playing time isn't curtailed too much (since the Yankees are stacked at just about every position). I would have to think he's certainly a clear upgrade over Drew Stubbs at this point and would contribute in every category except HR and RBI. Stubbs started for me probably two-thirds of the season as a utility guy but I've had no choice but to bench him over the last month or so because he's been so awful and his batting average and OPS and have been a killer during that stretch. Overall, I would lose some pop but it doesn't seem to be the cliff that it might have been on the surface.

My starting pitching would seem to get the biggest bump from the deal, as I would get Oswalt and Pavano while losing Dempster. Don't get me wrong, Dempster has been good for me for most of the season but he's hit a bit of a down period in the last 4-6 weeks or so. Oswalt has had a good year and has moved to a better situation in Philly (albeit a hitter's park but so was Minute Maid Park) and Pavano has been excellent as well. So, that would be a clear plus.

My relief pitching takes a slight downgrade here. Marmol has been excellent but, being stuck on a bad team, gets fewer save opportunities than Cordero. Cordero is okay but his other numbers don't really match up against Marmol. I'm not crazy about this part of the swap, since Marmol is certainly the better closer and it doesn't do anything to get me a 2nd closer (which is part of what I'm looking for right now).

What do you guys think of his offer to me? Is their enough value to truly consider doing this? Just so you know, Pretty much everyone he would give me would slot into a starting spot or utility spot for me. I was trying to do a deal without killing my offense, as I have one of the top 2 or 3 offenses in my league and it hasn't actually truly hit its peak just yet (with Rollins out for most of the year and Choo missing some time). So, getting something back offensively was a bit of a priority for me. To give you even more info, I am currently in 6th place (again, out of 20 teams) but have been steadily moving up in the standings as my guys have gotten healthy. 10 teams make the playoffs in our league, so I'm clearly going to make the playoffs and be a factor, so winning now is important to me even though it is a keeper league.

Just FYI, my league uses standard scoring except we also count OPS and Holds.

Here is my team, as it stands now:

C: J. Jaso (C)
1B: R. Howard (DL - 1B)
2B: C. Barmes (2B, SS)
SS: J. Rollins (SS)
3B: M. Reynolds (3B, 1B)
LF: C. Gonzalez (LF, CF, RF)
CF: J. Hamilton (CF, LF, RF)
RF: S. Shoo Choo (RF, LF)
Util: B. Zobrist (2B, RF, CF)
Util: N. Walker (2B, 3B)
Bn: D. Stubbs (CF)
Bn: C. Patterson (CF, LF)
Bn: R. Bernadina (CF, RF)
DL: M. Cameron (CF)

SP: C. Hamels
SP: R. Dempster
SP: T. Cahill
P: J. Garland
P: J. Westbrook
P: M. Thornton
RP: C. Marmol
RP: O. Dotel
Bn: S. Baker



I would appreciate whatever thoughts anyone wants to provide, as moving Hamilton would certainly be the biggest deal that I would do all year and be make-or-break for my team.

[Jenken]

I dont like the return...the only real pitcher you would get in this deal would be Oswalt, who I think is overrated. Marmol for Cordero is basically a wash, and Pavano is just..meh.

I would want more coming my way for Hamilton, thats for sure.

Help? viewtopic.php?t=417935

[mschulm2]

I agree with the above poster. Oswalt is not much better than Dempster is and Pavano should expect to regress somewhat. The slight improvement in pitching is not enough to warrant trading hamilton for.

[mm92280]

I appreciate your input on this. He knows that I don't like the closer swap in this potential deal, as I view Marmol > Cordero. So, he's modified the deal to where it would be just this:

I give:
Josh Hamilton
Drew Stubbs
Ryan Dempster

I get:
Brett Gardner
Adam LaRoche
Roy Oswalt
Carl Pavano


I certainly understand the idea that I would be selling short on Hamilton but I do sort of feel that LaRoche would give me back 80-85% of the RBI and HR production that I would be losing from Josh (LaRoche actually has almost as many RBIs). The biggest difference between the two is is AVG and OPS, where I know Hamilton can't be replaced. Gardner would seem to be a good step up from Drew Stubbs, who has been useless for 5 or 6 weeks.

I think people are understating the value of Oswalt and Pavano and only see this as a minor upgrade. Oswalt has ace-like numbers in every category except ERA (3.50) and that is due to pitching in hitter's parks (Minute Maid and Citizen's Bank) and moving to Philly should help him quite a bit in the wins department. I think Pavano is a bit underrated right now. He's been excellent for almost the entire year and consistent from month-to-month ( April - 3.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP May - 4.24 ERA and 1.21 WHIP June - 2.25 ERA and 0.90 WHIP July - 2.91 ERA and 1.04 WHIP). He also has 13 wins, which is tied for 5th most in all of baseball. Now, is Pavano going to regress? He could a little but there isn't any indication that he's going over a cliff, as his WHIP has been consistently good-to-great with good walk-to-strikeout ratios. I would be giving up Dempster, who has overall been good but inconsistent ( good months in April and June, bad months in July and May). Dempster is a on a bad team that makes wins hard to come by and his WHIP is a little high (1.31) due largely to walks. I like him but I do tend to think Oswalt and Pavano for Dempster is more than a minor improvement to my pitching staff.

So, I'm bumping this to get some more thoughts on this one, particularly since he dropped the closer swap from his proposal.