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Papelbon and Bard

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Papelbon and Bard

Postby Stu2k5 » Wed Aug 04, 2010 1:07 pm

Any insight for 2011?

I find it hard to believe BoSox will let Papelbon walk. So I'm guessing he is still arbitration eligible so they will go through the same thing in 2011 that happened in 2010, leaving Bard as the 8th inning guy.

What is the word on the street?

Thanks!
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Re: Papelbon and Bard

Postby thedude » Wed Aug 04, 2010 6:07 pm

Papelbon is not a free agent until after 2011. I would not be shocked if the Red Sox traded him this winter and moved Bard into the closer role. Papelbon has lost his splitter and has lost velocity on his fastball; plus he is getting expensive. While Bard has been much better this year (and is cheap).

I also would not be surprised if the Red Sox kept Papelbon. If they keep Papelbon he will be the closer.
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Re: Papelbon and Bard

Postby nsulham » Wed Aug 04, 2010 6:23 pm

Yeah I won't be surprised at all when his name's floated out there this offseason. If he comes back, great, but then I'm pretty sure '11 will be his last year in Boston. If they can get some offensive help or a stud prospect or two for him this winter then he might be a goner.

Either way I'd expect Theo to make the bullpen a focus this winter. Whether it's the returning Papelbon or newly-minted closer Bard heads up that pen is the question.
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Re: Papelbon and Bard

Postby nsulham » Wed Aug 04, 2010 7:16 pm

Funny the way things work sometimes:

Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon has been claimed on waivers by an American League team.
The Red Sox will almost certainly pull him back and retain him, so it's nothing to freak out about just yet. Most players are placed on waivers in August and Papelbon is under team control through next season via salary arbitration. If he is going to be dealt, and if the Red Sox are going to hand ninth-inning duties to Daniel Bard, it probably won't happen until mid-2011.
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Re: Papelbon and Bard

Postby thedude » Wed Aug 04, 2010 7:25 pm

nsulham wrote:Funny the way things work sometimes:

Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon has been claimed on waivers by an American League team.
The Red Sox will almost certainly pull him back and retain him, so it's nothing to freak out about just yet. Most players are placed on waivers in August and Papelbon is under team control through next season via salary arbitration. If he is going to be dealt, and if the Red Sox are going to hand ninth-inning duties to Daniel Bard, it probably won't happen until mid-2011.



That bolded part makes no sense. If the Red Sox making a change at closer, I see it happening in the off season. I doubt they would want to mess with the late inning bullpen mid-season (assuming they are in contention). The Red Sox, like all teams, won't want to have to rebuild the bullpen mid-season, and which changing closers would mean the bull pen is being rebuilt.

All of that of course assumes papelbon is still moderately effective next year. If he has an ERA of 6.00 in June the Red Sox would of course make a mid-season change.
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Re: Papelbon and Bard

Postby DaSh 1s » Wed Aug 04, 2010 8:52 pm

Uh, what?

The Twins are in contention and they rebuilt the bullpen with Capps Mid-Season? What difference does it matter when a CL is instated? Managers make a change for the better, and if replacing Papelbon midseason represents a upgrade so be it. Sure no teams want to do it, but sometimes its necessary.
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Re: Papelbon and Bard

Postby dAnzac » Thu Aug 05, 2010 12:41 am

DaSh 1s wrote:Uh, what?

The Twins are in contention and they rebuilt the bullpen with Capps Mid-Season? What difference does it matter when a CL is instated? Managers make a change for the better, and if replacing Papelbon midseason represents a upgrade so be it. Sure no teams want to do it, but sometimes its necessary.


It makes a difference here because they are trying to maximise the value they get from Papelbon. If they all of a sudden relegate him now, they won't get as good a return when they trade him in the winter.
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Re: Papelbon and Bard

Postby kab21 » Thu Aug 05, 2010 1:14 am

dAnzac wrote:
DaSh 1s wrote:Uh, what?

The Twins are in contention and they rebuilt the bullpen with Capps Mid-Season? What difference does it matter when a CL is instated? Managers make a change for the better, and if replacing Papelbon midseason represents a upgrade so be it. Sure no teams want to do it, but sometimes its necessary.


It makes a difference here because they are trying to maximise the value they get from Papelbon. If they all of a sudden relegate him now, they won't get as good a return when they trade him in the winter.

The closer role is overrated. there's not a huge difference to losing the lead in the 8th or the 9th. What's important is that you have go-to guys for the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. And that's why I think it's unlikely that they trade papelbon since they would weaken the 7th and 8th innings by moving Bard to the closer role. But he's walking as a FA imo and that gives them another year to strengthen the rest of the bullpen.

and Capps was brought in to strengthen the rest of the Twins bullpen (and because he's in arb for one more year). It wasn't a move to upgrade from Rauch necessarily but more that the Twins didn't really have confidence in the their 6th/7th inning guys.
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Re: Papelbon and Bard

Postby carter » Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:58 am

thedude wrote:I also would not be surprised if the Red Sox kept Papelbon. If they keep Papelbon he will be the closer.


if Bard is doing a considerably better job next year, then i wouldn't count on Papel closing all year.. if Mariano Rivera suddenly lost his splitter, and his era ballooned to 4.90.. you can bet your ass that David Robertson will be closing games (by the way, Robertson IS THE future yankee closer - just wanted to throw that in ;-D )
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Re: Papelbon and Bard

Postby thedude » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:15 am

carter wrote:
thedude wrote:I also would not be surprised if the Red Sox kept Papelbon. If they keep Papelbon he will be the closer.


if Bard is doing a considerably better job next year, then i wouldn't count on Papel closing all year.. if Mariano Rivera suddenly lost his splitter, and his era ballooned to 4.90.. you can bet your ass that David Robertson will be closing games (by the way, Robertson IS THE future yankee closer - just wanted to throw that in ;-D )


Well like I said, everything I wrote depends upon Papelbon not falling apart. It takes a lot for a veteran who has a history with his team to lose a starting job. See David Ortiz start in 2009 and 2010.
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