Keith Law's always been a huge fan of Wallace, so his response to the trade wasn't surprising. He even got in an argument a few weeks back on DJF attempting to justify his ranking of Wallace (as he was simultaneously ignoring the far superior offensive season of JP Arencibia).
Bryan Smith of Fangraphs wrote:
Wallace is pretty much just the opposite. His game is so dependent on offense, that even getting to 2-3 WAR consistently will be an issue. After Lance Berkman moves out of Houston, Wallace is the future at first base. He’s not good there, and is surely somewhere worse than 2.5 runs below average. To even reach 3 WAR, he’d have to produce 25 runs with the bat to be worth three wins. And given the fact that he’s never walked 50 times or hit 25 home runs in any season, getting to a .370 wOBA seems impossible.
I think people aren’t comprehending how not valuable the player they are projecting is. Wallace could be a 25 home run hitter in 2011 and not be worth three wins above replacement. And the math isn’t even hard. Say he gets 600 at-bats (+20 replacement), all at first base (-12.5 position adjustment), where he is bad defensively (-5 UZR) and hits like Juan Rivera did last season (.287/.332/.478 with 25 homers), which is only +10 with the bat. We add it all up, and Wallace is only worth 1.3 WAR.
The question is, of course, is a risky high-ceiling CF prospect that is years away worth an average to below average major league-ready 1B? To me, it''s a no, but I'm at least starting to understand where they were coming from.
Montana wrote:Also, according to AA.....They tried to get Gose in the Halladay trade in place of Taylor, but the Phillies wouldn't include him..........they tried all spring to land Gose in a separate deal, but couldn't pry him from the Phils.
Interesting. This means that both the Jays and Phillies believed Gose was a better prospect than Taylor and Wallace (two top 25 BA guys from last year).
What also stuck out to me, is that AA said Gose is the ONLY player in minor league baseball under 20 years of age, that his scouts were 100% unanimous in their praise. Normally with a player this raw, you'd have a very wide range of opinions on the kid, but with the Jays scouting staff (which it should be noted, AA spent a lot of money on, creating one of the largest scouting staffs in all of baseball)....they were 100% in agreement on.
I don't think AA simply sees simply a player that could develop into a good prospect one day in Gose........I think they see someone with all the raw tools to become one of the top prospects in the game (like a Desmond Jennings)....and they felt they had to buy in early (hence them trying to acquire him for the last year).....before his game really breaks out, and he's untouchable. (something he seemingly was for a while anyway, by the Phillies.....who wouldn't let him go in the Halladay deal along with Drabek, nor would they ever deal him straight up for Wallace)
I think alot of people are gonna be shocked when in a year or two time Gose is the Jays top prospect....and one with a much higher ceilling than Wallace.
"It's a premium position," Anthopoulos said, "and an athletic center fielder with outstanding competitiveness, makeup, leadership skills. He's someone who's in a tough league at a young age, but really a guy who is a game changer."
Anthopoulos added that his army of scouts returned with consistently high ratings on Gose, who will report to high-Class A Dunedin in the Jays' system. Anthopoulos went as far as saying that Gose has even drawn comparisons to Rays outfielder Carl Crawford.
"All of our scouts came back and raved about him," Anthopoulos said. "From a consensus standpoint, every one of our scouts thought this was going to be an above-average, All-Star-caliber center fielder. We don't have too many reports that are unanimous that way."
So not only are the Jays scouts (one of, if not thee, largest scouting staff in the baseball) in complete agreement on Gose as a prospect, they're in 100% agreement on him having the potential to be a All-Star caliber center fielder, in the show.
I'll gladly take a gamble on the next Desmond Jennings/Carl Crawford, for the next Lyle Overbay.