Long term vs. Short term

[jsphlly]

I have a pretty good track record in terms of finishing in the money in my league (Over the last 5 years, 1 championship and only once out of the money), but I have a long standing tendancy to drop good players and play bad players.

I've gotten better with my hitters (Previous years horrible drops include Morneau, Braun, Quentin, JUp) but I'm still "too cute" with my pitching. I can't stop playing matchups, analyzing split stats and chasing saves, "LaTroy is really gonna nail it down this time!"

My current pitching line (WHIP excluded, but it's bad)

770.2 IP - 48 W - 67 SV - 646 K - 3.82 ERA

My 10 drafted pitchers: Garza, Cain, Floyd, Scherzer, ESantana, HBell, K-Rod, Gregg, Madson and Lyon had I played the RPs every day and played every SP for every start would have combined for:

826.2 IP - 56 W - 78 SV - 721 K - 3.64 ERA

I dropped Gregg and Lyon early. I dropped Floyd and Scherzer after they started the year horribly. Madson isn't really a regretable drop and I've benched ESantana and Garza for some of their better starts (No hitter included).

Should I chalk this up to bad luck this year, or should I start to treat my fantasy team like my stocks? Draft and watch, don't tinker.

[A Fleshner Fantasy]

It seems you've diagnosed the problem, so it should be pretty easy to fix it: just don't tinker so much. Seems like you're way too impatient and you fiddle around way too much. Get your good players and let them play. If someone goes on a cold streak, it will be okay (believe it or not).