I'd take Vlad over Beltran. Better avg, hr, runs, rbi. If he steals (and I'm one of the few who believes he will) then all is well. If he doesn't steal, then there are quite a few cheap sources for steals. Looking at your roster steals don't seem to be a problem, so I'd grab Vlad easily in your situation.
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I say Beltran. Vlad is a little better in every category excpet SBs, were Bletran will blow him away this year. I would be suprised if Vlad exceeds 20, while Beltran should easily exceed 40 and could push for 50. A 30 differential in SBs cannot be overstated, in a roto league, this is like a guy hitting 60 more HRs than the other guy in terms of what it does for you in the standings.
vlad showed he has recovered from the back injury with a hot second half last year. he won't be stealing bases but everything else will be in place. as far as injury risk.....didn't beltran start the seanon on the DL last year? so i think they are both injury risks, but i'd have to go with vlad with your current situation.