Well, Arod's always tough to gauge mid-season because he's prone to going on a tear and ratcheting his numbers up a few notches within a week. Assuming his hip injury isn't chronic, he should be back to double-digit steals as well.
That said, let's get empirical. You say Arod's out of the first round? Assume a 12-team 5x5 redraft league. Who goes ahead of him? 2011 rankings are gonna be tough- lots of disappointing player seasons in 2010, so there may be a lot of variance in rankings depending on how much people are banking on "bounce-back" years.
The only guys I can personally say absolutely belong there at this point are Pujols, Miggy, and Crawford.
After that... Longoria (probably, putting up similar numbers to Arod this year, but younger) Hanley (having a not-so-spectacular year, but benefits a lot from thin SS) Braun (probably)
Beyond that, who at this point can you say with certainty that you'd take before Arod? Howard? Probably, but NO speed Wright? Maybe, but Arod's power may be more valuable than Wright's speed Halladay? Depends on how you feel about taking a SP that early Hamilton? Show me you can do it consistently Kemp? Tex? Prince? Not after this year. I can see Votto edging up there, possibly Cano.
Howard is a definite first rounder because it's getting to the point where you can bank on huge power numbers. Consistency should play some sort of role in whether or not a player is first round material and I think Howard has established himself enough. Braun and Kemp will probably be about the same as they were last year, maybe Kemp falling more towards the bottom half. Longoria is a for sure first rounder too and Wright probably will be too. I don't foresee a SP being an automatic first rounder just because pitching has become such a deep position.
mkultra wrote:The only guys I can personally say absolutely belong there at this point are Pujols, Miggy, and Crawford.
After that... Longoria (probably, putting up similar numbers to Arod this year, but younger) Hanley (having a not-so-spectacular year, but benefits a lot from thin SS) Braun (probably)
Beyond that, who at this point can you say with certainty that you'd take before Arod? Howard? Probably, but NO speed Wright? Maybe, but Arod's power may be more valuable than Wright's speed Halladay? Depends on how you feel about taking a SP that early Hamilton? Show me you can do it consistently Kemp? Tex? Prince? Not after this year. I can see Votto edging up there, possibly Cano.
Don't take declining players in the first round. This is very similar to the situation w/ Manny Ramirez at the tail end of his Red Sox days. He never quite produced as much as you thought he would and, aside from his insane first three months w/ the Dodgers, he hasn't. If Manny was being dropped down to the 2nd, 3rd round by the time he was 35, I think it's reasonable to treat A-Rod the same way. I think the ceiling now is .300-35-100, and the median is closer to .280-30-100. Very good player, but I'd have to think about taking him or Ryan Zimmerman (or Kevin Youkilis) in the 3rd round. I would not dream of touching him in the first. Longoria and Wright are the only 1st-round worthy 3B's.
mkultra wrote:Well, Arod's always tough to gauge mid-season because he's prone to going on a tear and ratcheting his numbers up a few notches within a week. Assuming his hip injury isn't chronic, he should be back to double-digit steals as well.
That said, let's get empirical. You say Arod's out of the first round? Assume a 12-team 5x5 redraft league. Who goes ahead of him? 2011 rankings are gonna be tough- lots of disappointing player seasons in 2010, so there may be a lot of variance in rankings depending on how much people are banking on "bounce-back" years.
The only guys I can personally say absolutely belong there at this point are Pujols, Miggy, and Crawford.
After that... Longoria (probably, putting up similar numbers to Arod this year, but younger) Hanley (having a not-so-spectacular year, but benefits a lot from thin SS) Braun (probably)
Beyond that, who at this point can you say with certainty that you'd take before Arod? Howard? Probably, but NO speed Wright? Maybe, but Arod's power may be more valuable than Wright's speed Halladay? Depends on how you feel about taking a SP that early Hamilton? Show me you can do it consistently Kemp? Tex? Prince? Not after this year. I can see Votto edging up there, possibly Cano.
Lots of churn, IMO. What do you guys think?
Pujols Miggy Halladay Lincecum Longoria Carl Crawford Teixeira Cano Wright Howard Carlos Gonzalez Votto Hanley Ramirez Braun healthy Chase Utley
should all easily go before A-Rod.
A-Rod may not even be top 5 at 3b (I'd take Wright, Longoria, Zimmermann, and Youk before him).
And, if you place any credence in Nate Silver's work, A-Rod is headed for a cliff:
Geek wrote:Late 2nd for the Yankees fans, mid 3rd to early 4th for everyone else.
His ceiling is .280, 30 HR, 10 SB, 70 Runs, 110 RBI. Poor man's Kevin Youkilis.
I think you severely misunderstand what ceiling means. He could get 70 R by the ASB and he hasn't had less than 30 HR since 1997, including last season when he missed 40 games. And guess how many times he's hit below .280 in his career - I'll give you a hint, it's never happened. I'm not saying he's a first-rounder still, but he's also not Russell Branyan yet. Your "ceiling" looks like an improbable worst case scenario.
Geek wrote:Late 2nd for the Yankees fans, mid 3rd to early 4th for everyone else.
His ceiling is .280, 30 HR, 10 SB, 70 Runs, 110 RBI. Poor man's Kevin Youkilis.
I think you severely misunderstand what ceiling means. He could get 70 R by the ASB and he hasn't had less than 30 HR since 1997, including last season when he missed 40 games. And guess how many times he's hit below .280 in his career - I'll give you a hint, it's never happened. I'm not saying he's a first-rounder still, but he's also not Russell Branyan yet. Your "ceiling" looks like an improbable worst case scenario.
Nah, it looks more like a 40th-50th percentile projection to me. Here's how I see it:
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by mkultra » Thu Jul 29, 2010 4:45 pm 
