Álex Rodríguez Out of The 1st Round in 2011?

[jake_twothousandfive]

Reading Dave Cameron's Negative Trade Value article on Fangraphs.com today got me thinking about ARod's actual fantasy value vs. his perceived value. Cameron labeling him as "merely good" may be overly harsh but simply looking at his career numbers it seems likely that his 50+ HR seasons are far behind him and even his 40+ seasons may be as well. His AB/HR has been trending upward from his ridiculous rates while in his prime years (though it's still very good).

He's currently the #69 ranked player on Yahoo (ESPN Player Rater - #86). In 2009 he finished at #54 (ESPN - 65). In 2008 #12. He has been entrenched atop fantasy rankings for so long it's hard to see him anywhere else. And for good reason. He's undeniably one of the premier talents in baseball history. But like Cameron pointed out, age and injuries are catching up to him. He's no longer a good bet to stay healthy all season.

Would he be a terrible first round pick in 2011? Absolutely not. You can still mark him down for a good-to-great season with confidence. And he'll be hitting in one of the best offenses in the league for the rest of his career.

But with the way things are playing out for him I can't say that he would be your best option with where he's likely to go in drafts next year.

[bballislife17]

No worse than the people who took Mauer in the first round this year...

[swyck]

No worse than the people who took Mauer in the first round this year...

Thanks for the insight.

Way too much time left to decide, and he's heating up. I'm one of those who (reluctantly) took him early in the 1st. Of course I regret it at this point, but I could have done worse I guess. Utley and Braun were my other choices right there.

He's aging and the injury risk is that much higher, and the potential for less production going forward. I can assume I'll mark him lower next year, as I'm leaning towards bumping up risk even more in my evaluations, but he's an all time great and he could rebound and be a monster the rest of the way here. I don't expect 25/75 the rest of the way, but he's someone that could put do that.

[Oatsdad]

I wouldn't take him in the 1st, partially due to the decline in production from aging but also due to that increased injury factor. He isn't likely to get healthier as he gets older.

If I wanted a 1st round 3B, I'd take Wright or Longoria...

[j24jags]

Hard to say exactly. With his lineup, ability, and home park, it is hard to go against him. I definitely would not take him in the top 6ish, but if I picked towards the end of the round it would be tempting. It is hard to say though, there is still plenty of baseball left.

[HasteTheDay]

I agree.

But unless you play in a league of experts, it seems you will always have an owner or 2 who over-value Yankees. And A-Rod will always be the 1st off the board.

If he keeps up this pace through the 2H, he should realistically be drafted in the bottom half of the 1st Round. God forbid he catches fire at seasons end though, as he would be right back as a Top5 pick for a majority of owners.

[Nerfherders]

A big part of his top-5 value in roto was his 15-20 SB per season. Now, he's in the 5-10 range if he's lucky. With his drop in OBP, I think he will slip to round 2 with the other 30 HR 5 SB types. He still has tremendous R and RBI potential being in that lineup though.

That being said, I traded him in my keeper league for mostly filler (Stewart, Rios, Granderson) because his decline is apparent. I will go fishing for a new 3B next season.

[Skin Blues]

Objective projection and ranking systems had him near the top of the first round this year, IIRC. And for good reason. It's not just biased fans. Injuries are hard to predict but he definitely has the talent and team situation to be one of the top fantasy players in the game. He's not his old self anymore but that's irrelevant. He should be compared to current players, not A-Rod circa 5-10 years ago. Kinda hard to knock a guy for no longer being a 50 HR and 30 SB threat while hitting 300.

[BitterDodgerFan]

what's the deal with his hip? i read somewhere that it's still an issue.

[AquaMan2342]

Late 1st/Early 2nd next year.