Montana168 wrote:Of course, setting aside season-ending injuries. A-rod could go out and break his leg tomorrow and sandoval will have the better 2nd half because he's on the field, and vice versa. Sandoval's power ceiling (25-30 HR) is A-rod's floor.
Projecting plate appearances is an important part of the numbers, if you don't, you'll be left holding the bag on a a great player who's losing at bats.
I was referring to unpredictable incidents like when a player hits a walk-off HR and jumps onto home plate and snaps his ankle (i'm looking at you kendry morales), those injuries are 100% unpredictable.
I think I'd have to put Wright at #1 for his all around category contributions, but Longo is close a close second. I don't expect Longo to maintain his SB pace and his AVG will likely be a bit lower than Wright's, but their other numbers should be comparable across the board. For some reason, I have never trusted Youk, but for completely irrational reasons - I hate his batting stance and his facial hair, really I just hate how he looks. But from a rational point of view, he also historically performs significantly worse in the second half, so, my rankings would be something like this:
Wright Longo
ARod Zimmerman
Youk
Young Reynolds Beltre Prado Pablo Rolen
I didn't rank Bautista, because I still don't believe in him. If his power falls off, what's left?
thatguy27 wrote:I think I'd have to put Wright at #1 for his all around category contributions, but Longo is close a close second.
The thing about projecting Wright for the rest of the year is that he strikes out a TON compared to the old David Wright (more than 1.5 times as much as 2008), and he plays in Citi Field. Since he's striking out a ton now, he has less chances to put the ball in play and more of a handicap on his AVG. He's been getting good results so far, but if his success on batted balls from now on reflects '05 to '08 closer than '09 and half of '10, his AVG is going to go down to .270 or so. Also, Citi Field is notorious for suppressing home runs; remember, Wright had a grand total of 10 HR in 144 games last year. Longo doesn't have these problems, so that's why he should be #1.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
thatguy27 wrote:I think I'd have to put Wright at #1 for his all around category contributions, but Longo is close a close second.
The thing about projecting Wright for the rest of the year is that he strikes out a TON compared to the old David Wright (more than 1.5 times as much as 2008), and he plays in Citi Field. Since he's striking out a ton now, he has less chances to put the ball in play and more of a handicap on his AVG. He's been getting good results so far, but if his success on batted balls from now on reflects '05 to '08 closer than '09 and half of '10, his AVG is going to go down to .270 or so. Also, Citi Field is notorious for suppressing home runs; remember, Wright had a grand total of 10 HR in 144 games last year. Longo doesn't have these problems, so that's why he should be #1.
True, but with just 4 K's in his past 11 games, he's trending in the right direction. Of course, he hasn't provided much in the way of counting stats during that period, so perhaps he's at a point where he needs to be more of a free swinger to hit for power - I really don't know. He's an enigma wrapped in a mystery.
11 games isn't enough to call it a trend. Earlier this year he had a string of 5 K's in 9 games, but then he struck out in 23 of his next 86 AB. Wright is an elite player but I don't think anyone described as an "enigma" should be considered #1 at their position.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
thatguy27 wrote:I think I'd have to put Wright at #1 for his all around category contributions, but Longo is close a close second. I don't expect Longo to maintain his SB pace and his AVG will likely be a bit lower than Wright's, but their other numbers should be comparable across the board. For some reason, I have never trusted Youk, but for completely irrational reasons - I hate his batting stance and his facial hair, really I just hate how he looks. But from a rational point of view, he also historically performs significantly worse in the second half, so, my rankings would be something like this:
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's