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Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

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Re: Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

Postby Big Pimpin » Sun Jul 11, 2010 4:35 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:I suppose that for Cliff Lee, this is actually an upgrade since the TEX offense >>>> Seattle offense (assuming sabermetrics confirmation)


Nope. Defense means everything. Which is why UZR is weighed so heavily in WAR.


You realize UZR isn't weighted any more heavily than anything else, right? ;-)
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Re: Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Jul 11, 2010 7:51 pm

bigh0rt wrote:not if there's a god he's not

was in atlantic city for the weekend, but at least this was proven.
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Re: Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

Postby thejusman1 » Mon Jul 12, 2010 10:56 am

Big Pimpin wrote:
DaSh 1s wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:I suppose that for Cliff Lee, this is actually an upgrade since the TEX offense >>>> Seattle offense (assuming sabermetrics confirmation)


Nope. Defense means everything. Which is why UZR is weighed so heavily in WAR.


You realize UZR isn't weighted any more heavily than anything else, right? ;-)


No, I think Dash is right here. Defense is obviously more important than anything, cause otherwise how could you seriously justify FraGu as an AL MVP and not Miguel Cabrera?
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Re: Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Mon Jul 12, 2010 11:12 am

Big Pimpin wrote:
DaSh 1s wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:I suppose that for Cliff Lee, this is actually an upgrade since the TEX offense >>>> Seattle offense (assuming sabermetrics confirmation)


Nope. Defense means everything. Which is why UZR is weighed so heavily in WAR.


You realize UZR isn't weighted any more heavily than anything else, right? ;-)


Regardless, couldn't that just mean that whoever made up the formula thought defense was more important than it actually is? :-?
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Re: Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

Postby Big Pimpin » Mon Jul 12, 2010 12:05 pm

thejusman1 wrote:No, I think Dash is right here. Defense is obviously more important than anything, cause otherwise how could you seriously justify FraGu as an AL MVP and not Miguel Cabrera?


I don't recall anyone justifying Gutierrez as AL MVP. But pretending that it's impossible for a player who plays an incredibly difficult defensive position at a very high level to compare to a guy who is a great hitter but plays crappy defense at the least demanding position seems counter intuitive to me. But if you want to believe that despite most players deriving most of their value from hitting (which makes sense) it's just not possible for a player to accrue most of his value based on what he does with the leather, go right ahead.

Clearly Ozzie Smith must have been roughly the worst player in baseball history then, right? It's amazing that people let him play for 19 years considering he was such a bad hitter and no one can be good enough defensively to be a solid contributor, isn't it?


A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:Regardless, couldn't that just mean that whoever made up the formula thought defense was more important than it actually is? :-?


I guess, but a run is a run is a run. I'm still trying to figure out how one can contend that a run saved is not equal to a run created.
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Re: Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Mon Jul 12, 2010 12:24 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:Regardless, couldn't that just mean that whoever made up the formula thought defense was more important than it actually is? :-?


I guess, but a run is a run is a run. I'm still trying to figure out how one can contend that a run saved is not equal to a run created.


I'm not trying to contend that. I would argue that when a particular player "saves" a run, there is a relatively high percentage of other players that would also have saved that run. On the other hand, when a player creates a run, I think a much lower percentage of other players would have also created that run.
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Re: Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

Postby thejusman1 » Mon Jul 12, 2010 12:45 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:I don't recall anyone justifying Gutierrez as AL MVP.


Let me refresh your memory.

Thread: viewtopic.php?t=413739&start=20
Date: June 3, 2010:

Big Pimpin wrote:And yeah, at the moment I'd probably vote for Gutierrez over Cabrera, but it would be close...


Big Pimpin wrote:Coming into today's games, Gutierrez was 0.2 RAR ahead of MCab. Yeah, the difference is negligible, but I'll take the guy who I really like and plays defense over the fat loafer whose value comes solely from hitting and plays the easiest position on the diamond.


When MCab's WAR surpassed FraGu's a day later...

thejusman1 wrote:So does he [Miguel Cabrera] belong in the conversation for AL MVP yet? ;-7

Big Pimpin wrote:I'd say no, because Morneau has been so much better than anyone else so far that it's honestly not even worthy of a discussion. Check back in a month or two.


I'm assuming at this point, FraGu was still in the hunt though...

But pretending that it's impossible for a player who plays an incredibly difficult defensive position at a very high level to compare to a guy who is a great hitter but plays crappy defense at the least demanding position seems counter intuitive to me. But if you want to believe that despite most players deriving most of their value from hitting (which makes sense) it's just not possible for a player to accrue most of his value based on what he does with the leather, go right ahead.


Defense is important, and a saved run could be just as important as an earned run... but Miguel Cabrera has been unreal this year. I don't think you can say the same about FraGu's defense. You bashed people pretty hard as being "uneducated" in that AL MVP thread for looking at average/RBI as evaluative statistics and not WAR... but now that FraGu's WAR is 1.9 and MCab's is 3.9, you refuse to concede that MCab is the more valuable hitter and instead retreat into some ambiguous explanation of how defense is just so much more important than offense. Last time I checked, the team with the most runs PRODUCED still wins baseball games.
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Re: Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

Postby Big Pimpin » Mon Jul 12, 2010 12:59 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:Regardless, couldn't that just mean that whoever made up the formula thought defense was more important than it actually is? :-?


I guess, but a run is a run is a run. I'm still trying to figure out how one can contend that a run saved is not equal to a run created.


I'm not trying to contend that. I would argue that when a particular player "saves" a run, there is a relatively high percentage of other players that would also have saved that run. On the other hand, when a player creates a run, I think a much lower percentage of other players would have also created that run.


But they're measured the same. To get credit for saving a run, you've got to do it in relation to all your defensive counterparts. To get credit for creating a run, you've got to do it in relation to all the other hitters out there. It's not a vacuum where you're just looking at Player A and no one else. There's nothing to compare to unless the same rules hold for everyone. I just don't understand how if all the numbers are derived as a measurement against some average, you can argue that the run created was harder to come by. You've completely made that up. There's no basis for it and certainly there's no data to back that up.
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Re: Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

Postby Big Pimpin » Mon Jul 12, 2010 1:14 pm

thejusman1 wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:I don't recall anyone justifying Gutierrez as AL MVP.


Let me refresh your memory.

Thread: viewtopic.php?t=413739&start=20
Date: June 3, 2010:

Big Pimpin wrote:And yeah, at the moment I'd probably vote for Gutierrez over Cabrera, but it would be close...


Big Pimpin wrote:Coming into today's games, Gutierrez was 0.2 RAR ahead of MCab. Yeah, the difference is negligible, but I'll take the guy who I really like and plays defense over the fat loafer whose value comes solely from hitting and plays the easiest position on the diamond.


When MCab's WAR surpassed FraGu's a day later...

thejusman1 wrote:So does he [Miguel Cabrera] belong in the conversation for AL MVP yet? ;-7

Big Pimpin wrote:I'd say no, because Morneau has been so much better than anyone else so far that it's honestly not even worthy of a discussion. Check back in a month or two.


I'm assuming at this point, FraGu was still in the hunt though...

But pretending that it's impossible for a player who plays an incredibly difficult defensive position at a very high level to compare to a guy who is a great hitter but plays crappy defense at the least demanding position seems counter intuitive to me. But if you want to believe that despite most players deriving most of their value from hitting (which makes sense) it's just not possible for a player to accrue most of his value based on what he does with the leather, go right ahead.


Defense is important, and a saved run could be just as important as an earned run... but Miguel Cabrera has been unreal this year. I don't think you can say the same about FraGu's defense. You bashed people pretty hard as being "uneducated" in that AL MVP thread for looking at average/RBI as evaluative statistics and not WAR... but now that FraGu's WAR is 1.9 and MCab's is 3.9, you refuse to concede that MCab is the more valuable hitter and instead retreat into some ambiguous explanation of how defense is just so much more important than offense. Last time I checked, the team with the most runs PRODUCED still wins baseball games.


I was asked if I would take Gutierrez over MCab. I would have. But at no point did I ever say I thought Gutierrez was worthy of the award. I even said the MVP award should go to Morneau without a discussion. He'd just been that much better than anyone else. And as of now, the award should still be his, with the only other person getting any consideration being Carl Crawford.

Cabrera has been no better with the bat than Morneau. And Morneau plays defense. You can even make a good argument based on the numbers that mean anything that Cabrera has even been the first baseman in his division, let alone the best player in his league. I'll happily concede that MCab is a more valuable hitter than Gutierrez. I'll even say that as of right now, MCab has clearly been the better overall player than Gutierrez and is more worthy of an MVP vote than Gutierrez (although it still doesn't mean that he's worthy of one in relation to other, better players). Of course there's a lot of season left so we'll see how it changes over the course of the year.

I would like to see where I ever said defense was more important than offense. And the team that scores more runs than the other team wins baseball games, it has nothing to do with runs "PRODUCED." Every team has an inherent baseline based on the players on their roster. Say a team has players such that on average they will score 3 runs in every game and give up 4. If they want to get better, they need to find players that will make the 3 bigger and/or the 4 smaller. In that respect, taking the 3 to 4 has the exact same effect as dropping the 4 to 3. If you want to drop the 4 to 3, you have to get better pitchers or find guys who can still hit at the same level to not change the 3 runs scored but can save you a run per game with their gloves. It's not that difficult of a concept.
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Re: Cliff Lee on the verge of becoming a Yankee

Postby m16a » Mon Jul 12, 2010 1:27 pm

So, how about that Cliff Lee going to the rangers... Interesting how he was supposed to go to the Yankees and didn't. :-b
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