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Help me with my prospect draft

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Help me with my prospect draft

Postby RNiner » Tue Jul 06, 2010 12:33 am

I have the #2 pick this year. Our league is 20 teams, and our prospect roster is only 3 deep. (You can exceed 3 by trade, but must be at 3 before the prospect draft each year.) If you keep 3 prospects you get 0 draft picks, keep 2 you get 1, etc.
Finally, once a prospect has obtained 150 AB's or 55 IP's at the MLB level they lose prospect status, and must be kept on our MLB roster. We get 9 keepers each year.
What this basically means is that longer-term prospects go down in value, as do those who develop slower. So top-end prospects and high-risk/high-reward prospects are more valuable, as are guys who will make the majors sooner. I try to avoid guys still in rookie or Low-A, unless its a cant-miss guy. (I wouldn't skip Harper for example, even if he takes 3-4 years.)

My only current prospect is Mike Moustakas.

Guys available:

Harper (99% sure he goes with the pick in front of me)
Tanner Scheppers
Brett Lawrie
Mike Montgomery
Julio Teheran
Mike Trout
Eric Hosmer
Simon Castro
Jordan Lyles
Mike Minor
Ben Revere
Randall Delgado

I have 3 picks this year (picked up an extra in a trade), one of which is the 2nd overall. Whats my target list look like?
I'm leaning towards Teheran as my 1st pick, but have no idea who to gun for after that. Trout? Lyles? Hosmer?

Edit: I guess I should mention that we are a roto league, standard 5x5 except AVG is replaced by OBP. So those nice high BB guys are even better for us.
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Re: Help me with my prospect draft

Postby RugbyD » Tue Jul 06, 2010 12:59 pm

Given the high flame-out rate of pitching prospects, I would go Lawrie, Teheran, Montgomery (depending on his injury status at time of draft).
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Re: Help me with my prospect draft

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Jul 06, 2010 2:17 pm

I'd go with Mike Trout before Teheran. He appears to be a can't miss guy even though he's in A ball right now.
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Re: Help me with my prospect draft

Postby mblax10 » Tue Jul 06, 2010 8:00 pm

I see the reason to move down some farther away prospects. With 60 prospects taken, top young guys like Trout, Harper, etc need to be owned. For your circumstances, I'd rank them:

Harper
Mike Trout
Brett Lawrie
Eric Hosmer
Julio Teheran
Mike Minor
Ben Revere
Mike Montgomery (I move him ahead of Teharen as soon as he takes the mound again. I haven't found much about the injury)
Randall Delgado
Simon Castro
Jordan Lyles
Tanner Scheppers
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Re: Help me with my prospect draft

Postby RNiner » Tue Jul 06, 2010 8:22 pm

Thanks guys, I guess I was debating weather to go Teheran or Trout with my 2nd overall pick, and now I'm leaning Trout.

I also agree that a guy like Minor goes up in value somewhat for me, being at AAA already.
I have the 14th overall pick as well, and in fact only 28 prospects will be taken, as 32 are being held. I figure I'll go Hosmer if he's still there, or else take Minor/Teheran.

Montgomery scares me with all this elbow soreness. Our draft is next Monday, so maybe we'll hear something. Having been burned by Jacob McGee, I'm much more weary of young SP's who haven't even been to AA yet.
Lawrie seems solid, but I have Utley at 2B so I'll probably skip him, unless you guys tell me he's a future lock for 20-20 seasons at 2B.
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Re: Help me with my prospect draft

Postby peaceandlove » Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:03 am

Are Machado and Tailon available? if so, i'd easily add them to your list and take them over some of the other guys you have listed on here like Castro and Revere.
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Re: Help me with my prospect draft

Postby RNiner » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:59 am

Ended up going with:

Mike Trout
Mike Minor
Mike Montgomery
Jerry Sands

Machado went really high, soon after I took Trout. Tailon didn't even get drafted! I was tempted but with young pitching already on my MLB roster and two pitching prospects already, I went with Sands as my last pick.

Add to those 4:
Mike Moustakas (was my only returning prospect)

on my MLB roster already as pickups:
Mike Pineda
Craig Kimbrel
Logan Morrison

and I have lots of potential. Going to have to rename my team name and make it something to do with all these Mikes!
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Re: Help me with my prospect draft

Postby mblax10 » Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:15 pm

I would've taken Tailon over Sands for sure. Not sure your options with current players, but I'd rather have him than Kimbrel or Pineda as well.

Not knowing who was available at each pick, it appears you did fine. Trout is arguably as good as any prospect around. Minor is having a fabulous year. If Montgomery comes back without a hiccup, he could be a steal. Sands is still mashing in AA proving he's the real deal and not just dominating a hitter friendly league.
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Re: Help me with my prospect draft

Postby RNiner » Tue Jul 20, 2010 1:27 am

Yeah, was more of a league settings kind of decision then an actual player choice. Taillon is a high-schooler who will take years to develop. We only have 3 prospect spots (I got two more through trade) so spots are precious, and faster turnover is desirable. All my guys other then Trout are at least AA players. Guys like Kimbrel and Minor are nice because they're at AAA and ready to help very soon. This time next year I can either have a closer/solid MR or go with someone else like Taillon.
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