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Why the hate for Loaiza???

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Why the hate for Loaiza???

Postby Ridgerunner » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:34 am

I think he is being hated on because none of the so called fantasy experts saw his breakout coming. No one had him as a "sleeper" I think it's a jealousy thing myself. He made people feel dumb last year and some people take offense to that. I have not seen a single soul who thinks he will match last year, why?.....because people are pissed they missed him last year and they blame his game for it!!!!
Whats your take?....
Disclaimer: I am not a Sox fan.
RR
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Postby Pedantic » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:36 am

I'll bet that a lot of the folks around here were the ones who nabbed Loaiza. Anyway, if everyone else around here thinks like me, they don't like Loaiza because nothing in his career indicated this kind of jump.
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he went undrafted though

Postby Ridgerunner » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:38 am

yeah they picked him up, but after a sweet start. Who drafted him last year in any league and be honest?
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Re: he went undrafted though

Postby Pedantic » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:39 am

Ridgerunner wrote:yeah they picked him up, but after a sweet start. Who drafted him last year in any league and be honest?


Why would they have drafted him? There was no reason to last year.
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Postby Ridgerunner » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:42 am

So you don't like anyone whose career numbers do not predict a jump?( Sosa, Bonds, B. Boone, Gagne)
I see you working from a FB perspective, though!
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Postby bretmacmo » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:42 am

It's called Regression to the Mean.

Things can and will return to their natural state.

Loaiza has enough games under his belt to show that last year was not the norm for him. He is a 4.50-5.00 ERA and 1.40-1.50 WHIP type pitcher. Last year was a fluke.

Example: Brady Anderson's HR totals from 93 to 99. 13, 12, 16, 50, 18, 18, 24.
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Postby Ridgerunner » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:45 am

people who predicted him as a sleeper might have draft him. And this is exactly my point. No one predicted him as sleeper so he is getting hated on here because nobody saw it coming.
15 W 3.25 ERA 1.2 WHIP 200K (I do not have him on my team)
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regression of the mean

Postby Ridgerunner » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:47 am

Humans don't fit your statistical theorem as well as you might think.
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Postby Pedantic » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:50 am

Nobody is "hating" on him here. It's just that being the kind of people that want to win at fantasy baseball, we're practical--and that means looking at the facts. The fact is that no one could have predicted him as a sleeper because there were no facts to support a conclusion like that. No one just picks sleepers out of thin air.
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Postby Madison » Thu Mar 25, 2004 11:52 am

It has nothing to do with hate. I freely admit that I did not pick up Loaiza last year and at the same time I did not lose any league to anyone that had him. He didn't cost me a thing last year so it has absolutely nothing personal about it. It's all about the numbers.

Here's a pretty good post I put in another thread about it:

Madison wrote:I should just make this a sticky. Lol. :-D

Here's what I wrote in another thread about Loaiza:

Madison wrote:Ok, here we go:

Here's some stats:

2001: 190 innings, 5.02 era.
2002: 151 innings, 5.71 era.
2003: We know what he did, we just don't know how. Adding 1 pitch doesn't do that. Dozens of pitchers add a new pitch, we don't see dozens of guys drop their era by a run and a half.

Loaiza has never posted an era under 4.13. That's the best he's ever done and it was way back in '97. It's a fluke, and there's no way that he repeats it. I know a lot of people are high on him, and want to keep him, but the best thing you can do is let him ruin some other owners fantasy team next year.

4+ era and 12 wins is what I've predicted for months now, and I stand by it.

Here's some more, this was another post in that same thread:

Madison wrote:Interesting........I've seen a few people mention how consistant he was for the whole year.

Amazins04 wrote:Furthermore, his K/9 rate jumped in the SECOND half, and that's definitely a good sign.


It is?

Pre All Star: 2.21 era
Post All Star: 3.84 era

guest wrote:One pitch can't do that for a pitcher?


How many pitchers learn a new pitch each year? 50? How many pull a Loaiza? Maybe 1. I believe too much is being made of this 1 new pitch.

guest wrote:I mean the guy was pretty dominant from the beginning all the way through to the end of the year.


See the above era splits. He just continued his hot start a little longer this year.

Career era by month:

April: 2.85
May: 5.47
June: 5.31
July: 4.73
Aug: 4.29
Sept: 4.71
Oct: 2.37 ( 3 starts)

Those numbers were even worse before last year.


I'm sure you are getting the idea. ;-)

Bottom line, in his 8 previous years, his best era was 4.13 and his highest win total was 11. He's had plenty of opportunity too. 1480 career innings, so it's not like he just now got a starting role.

I'm avoiding him, and suggest that everyone else let someone else waste the high pick on him. ;-)
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