cafe thoughts: Carlos Quentin..

[lastingsgriller]

so.. quietly Carlos has had a nice little June. what are we thinkng here..



A: Choo Choo Baby, time to hop on Gorilla Back's train because there's no tellin' high high he will soar!!

or

B: He's still a fat lazy sack of crap that's just riding a little hot streak. pass..

[Tony Micelli]

so.. quietly Carlos has had a nice little June. what are we thinkng here..



A: Choo Choo Baby, time to hop on Gorilla Back's train because there's no tellin' high high he will soar!!

or

B: He's still a fat lazy sack of crap that's just riding a little hot streak. pass..

Good topic. I added him this morning with a wait and see approach. He's definitely a streaky hitter and I've read his babip is very low this season, his K/bb ratio really isn't that bad, so I figured what the heck .. can't hurt to see how he does in the next few weeks. The Sox as a whole are playing much better baseball these days. However, if he does start to stink it up again ... I'll just cut him.

[DoctaDre]

As an avid sox fan, i will have a bit of a biased opinion, but it still counts .

I have a love / hate relationship with CQ.
He can be a straight monster for a week go cold for a month, monster for next few weeks, etc etc.
There is 1 good thing so far, he doesn't seem to be hurt by the nagging injuries from the past few years. I think he has fully recovered or is operating around the 90 percentile. Which means the bad start can mostly be associated with rusty mechanics.
He is working on it and getting better for sure, as you can see by his recently hot streak.
White sox have won 7 or 8 in a row, part of that is thanks to CQs great hitting. He can hit the longball, we all know that, its just a matter of time before he goes off. Hes got great power and theres a lot of season left, so I ride this train as long as I can. He can produce alot of rbi hitting behind the hot hitters of rios, konerko. Now if only pierre and beckham can get going... watch out twinkies/tiger fans.. we will be hard to stop

[The Artful Dodger]

B: He's still a fat lazy sack of crap that's just riding a little hot streak. pass..

That's an insult to Andruw Jones, I'll have you know.

For one thing, Quentin is getting jammed more often for pop flyballs. That said, I wouldn't give up on him yet as he's still on pace to hit in between 20-25 homeruns, even in a terrible slump. Problem is, it seems like he lives and dies by the HR ball while historically, he isn't a great line drive hitter.

[jake_twothousandfive]

I've read his babip is very low this season

This is true, but it's also misleading. Quentin sports one of the lowest career BABIPs I've seen among guys with a significant sample size at .250. So while his .223 BABIP will more than likely rise, it won't rise by as much as you'd expect for the average hitter. In 2008 he ended the season with a .288 BA and a .278 BABIP. A player can pull off a BA>BABIP if he hits a lot of HRs and/or doesn't strike out much [HR/(HR+K)>BA].

He has a good eye and good power, but his fly ball tendencies are going to keep his BA low.

[Pochucker]

There is one reason and one reason only why he is having a good week this week --I benched him for first time this year! I assure you he will suck as usual next week when I return him to lineup. So far he is my biggest mistake of the draft!

[Neato Torpedo]

I wrote about him a couple weeks ago.

Carlos Quentin: Speaking of inexplicable five-year trends, we find ourselves in yet another year where Quentin has a BABIP well below the usual league norm. His career high in BABIP was in his breakout 2008 campaign (.278), and his career total is .249 in over 1,600 PA. Now, people will instantly point toward his low LD rate (15.8% career), but multiple studies show that the tried-and-horribly-horribly-false method of justifying low BABIPs with low LD rates is pretty much the lamest thing you can do (worse than wearing Crocs but better than being Steve Phillips). Another wrinkle to the statistical story that only serves to confuse me more is that while Quentin has never had a BABIP above .278 in the majors, he never had a mark below .313 in the minors. According to Minor League Splits, he did all that with a batted ball profile almost identical to the one he currently sports. Weird, huh? His BABIP currently sits at .203, which is very, very low no matter which way you slice it.

Perceived value: 11th-12th round

The article is better because it has links to the LD/BABIP studies I mentioned.

[RedHopeful]

Well whether this is the real CQ or just a temporary mirage, he's fun to ride right now. I drafted him in too many leagues this season expecting a big rebound but safe to say he's been my largest disappointment. Most likely going to look to sell high in the near future as the threat of injury and/or a return of a crappy BABIP seem inevitable.

[Merlin401]

Well whether this is the real CQ or just a temporary mirage, he's fun to ride right now. I drafted him in too many leagues this season expecting a big rebound but safe to say he's been my largest disappointment. Most likely going to look to sell high in the near future as the threat of injury and/or a return of a crappy BABIP seem inevitable.

Quentin has really escaped public scrutiny on my team after drafting the likes of Beckett, Aramis Ramirez, McLouth, Sandoval... lol. Oh dear. Glad he's turning it around now.

[Grounded Polo]

Another bomb today. I really hope he keeps this up, I got him on 1 team and he could be huge if he gets hot finally for the H2H playoffs.