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How much do you put into 1st/2nd Half splits?

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How much do you put into 1st/2nd Half splits?

Postby LloydChristmas » Tue Jun 22, 2010 3:20 pm

At a fundamental and logical level, I'm trying to figure out if there's anything to 1st and 2nd half splits for pitchers. I think doing an analysis on both pitchers and catchers is apples to oranges and introduces way too many variables. Basically, I'm asking do they mean anything? And more importantly, the big question in fantasy analysis, can they be used to predict future performance?

The possible hypothesis:

1) They do mean something. A pitcher may pitcher better with a fresher arm at the beginning of the season. A pitcher may pitcher better towards the end of the season after they have "settled in" and got some innings under the belt.

2) The majority of splits that the consensus feels are significant (i.e. Dan Haren's traditionally poor 2nd half) are coincidental. A good pitcher is a good pitcher no matter what month it is. The difference in split is just statistical randomness. He's just as likely to pitch well (or poorly) 1st or 2nd half.

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Re: How much do you put into 1st/2nd Half splits?

Postby Grounded Polo » Tue Jun 22, 2010 8:59 pm

Splits are basically worthless unless they kept occurring over and over again like Dan Haren, but that's over because now he's bad in the first half instead. A half season of baseball doesn't tell you how good or bad a player is.

I only use second half splits to find some potential gems on draft day, don't look that much into first half unless the league is deep enough to warrant it.
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