So I've been doing fantasy baseball for about 5 years now and this is the first point that I can remember that in 1 catcher leagues, you can have legitimate studs like Mauer or McCann and, even if you believe that they'll fill their projections, don't justify themselves as a high pick because there's such depth at the position. Let's think a second about the catchers in next year's draft.
Mauer McCann Victor Martinez Wieters M. Montero Napoli Posada Soto Martin Santana Posey Jaso? J. Montero?
In 2 catcher leagues, I think the position will look like 3B this year with a decent list of quality options and then the bottom drops out.
Thoughts?
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
I still don't see anyone to get excited about after Mauer, McCann and V-mart. And chances are they go much earlier than I would be willing to take them.
Pogotheostrich wrote:I still don't see anyone to get excited about after Mauer, McCann and V-mart. And chances are they go much earlier than I would be willing to take them.
Then I think you're not looking.
Player A: .258 / .330 / 10 HRs / 23R / 26RBI / 3 SBs Player B: .260 / .384 / 6 HRs / 28R / 27RBI / 2 SBs
Can you tell me which of these 6 are Mauer, McCann, and V-mart? Note that three others on my list: Posey, Santana, and Jaso have only had limited action since being called up and one other on my list, J. Montero, hasn't been called up yet but probably will be next year.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
3b has turned into a very shallow position with ramirez and chipper no longer playing well
I think of it as there's a high plateau that fills the position for about half the teams. And then it falls off a cliff and everyone else is left scrambling. That's about what Catcher next year looks to me in leagues that use 2 catchers. I think there's a pretty good top tier and then a lot of people to be worried about.
But in leagues that only use 1 catcher, the difference between #12 and #1 is going to be pretty thin.
To put it into auction values, if Mauer was a projected $25 player* the last couple of seasons, I see his projected value next season more along the lines of $12 to $13. Not because his projection has gone down any, but rather because the baseline alternative of the 12th best catcher has gone up so much.
* Last year, I think Mauer produced actually much more, closer to $40 to $45 in value.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
The last couple years I've been taking a catcher in the last few rounds in our 14 team 1 C league and its worked out great. And not only for who I drafted but who was hot to start the season and was able to pick up for nothing. Last year I was able to get Montero in several leagues for his terrific 2nd half. Drafting late this year I ended up with Pudge & Y Molina and both have outperformed most of the catchers drafted in the middle rounds. Maybe you don't get excited for any catcher after the first handful, but you can get decent production waiting till very late in drafts. Not so many years ago you just wanted someone who wasn't going to drag you down, thats no longer the case
Matthias wrote:But in leagues that only use 1 catcher, the difference between #12 and #1 is going to be pretty thin.
More importantly, the difference between #12 and #4 is going to be almost non-existent.
With so many decent options out there, no real reason to carry more than one, and no way to determine who's going to have that "up" year that will make them valuable, I can't see spending more than $1 on Catcher next season.
In my league at least, I see it sorting itself out this way: The same people every year somehow convince themselves to pay for a "good" catcher. Just based on reputation that will suck up Mauer/VMart/McCann. Then there's that other group of guys who project big futures for unproven guys, and are willing to pay a price somewhere in the middle of their potential and their actual worth. Those guys will be paying extra for the Posey/Santana/Montero, and maybe even Wieters again. There's even guys who will gladly pay for an aging Posada, simply because of his history and lineup.
Even with all eight of those guys being gone, there's still probably 6+ guys left I'd be more than happy to roster... Napoli of course, Doumit, Suzuki, Soto, Molina(s), Barajas. The list goes on and on.
C is as deep as any other position out there right now, with the exception of SP.
Matthias wrote:But in leagues that only use 1 catcher, the difference between #12 and #1 is going to be pretty thin.
More importantly, the difference between #12 and #4 is going to be almost non-existent.
With so many decent options out there, no real reason to carry more than one, and no way to determine who's going to have that "up" year that will make them valuable, I can't see spending more than $1 on Catcher next season.
In my league at least, I see it sorting itself out this way: The same people every year somehow convince themselves to pay for a "good" catcher. Just based on reputation that will suck up Mauer/VMart/McCann. Then there's that other group of guys who project big futures for unproven guys, and are willing to pay a price somewhere in the middle of their potential and their actual worth. Those guys will be paying extra for the Posey/Santana/Montero, and maybe even Wieters again. There's even guys who will gladly pay for an aging Posada, simply because of his history and lineup.
Even with all eight of those guys being gone, there's still probably 6+ guys left I'd be more than happy to roster... Napoli of course, Doumit, Suzuki, Soto, Molina(s), Barajas. The list goes on and on.
C is as deep as any other position out there right now, with the exception of SP.
Yah. This is exactly how I see it playing out as well.
In years prior I would've defended spending upwards of $20 on Mauer, but not next year. I'll be one of the guys either spending $1 or drafting in the 15th or 16th round. Granted, it's a bit early to be thinking of next year's draft but I thought this was a timely discussion with the promotion of Santana and Posey and people can start thinking about next year keepers.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
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by Matthias » Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:20 am 
