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Miguel Cabrera VS Franklin Gutierrez

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Who is worth more Wins?

Franklin Gutierrez
24
44%
Miguel Cabrera
30
56%
 
Total votes : 54

Re: Miguel Cabrera VS Franklin Gutierrez

Postby Big Pimpin » Fri Jun 11, 2010 9:14 pm

baseball77 wrote:But WAR doesn't take into account the fact that Miguel has more HR than anyone else in the 7th inning or later and also more HR that have either tied the game or put the Tigers ahead this season. I see no reason to think Cabrera is going to slow down. He turned 27 in April and is entering his prime, not to mention the fact that he is now sober. Everything points to him putting up monster numbers and he has done nothing but that so far. His average hasn't been below .333 once this season and I think he's the most talented hitter in the AL.


FWIW he's been worth exactly 0.72 wins based on his production in high leverage situations. Although last year he was worth -1.9 wins in those same situations, so if "clutch" is something he can control why isn't he always good? O:-)
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Re: Miguel Cabrera VS Franklin Gutierrez

Postby Matthias » Sat Jun 12, 2010 4:02 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:The market value for a player like Guitierrez is about $5 million/year. if he was worth more, I assure somone would pay him more. It's not like you have some sort of wealth of secret information that every team in baseball doesn't have access to and knowledge of. Teams pay the most money to the players that help them win ballgames. I wouldn't be so quick to discredit the Phillies or their personel decisions. last I checked, they've been to a couple of world series' recently.

So much wrongness in here. But I think it can be summed up by saying that not all front offices are the same and with the same priorities. The Phillies, for example, are handing out contracts in the hundreds of millions of dollars without an annual expenditure in the tens of thousands of hiring, "an in-house stats guy." IMO this is the equivalent of spending hundreds of millions of dollars on an oil field without hiring a geologist. Just because you happened to hit the money lode doesn't mean that you went about it in a way that was smart.

For the conversation at large, the proximity in real player value in MCab and FraGu* and their disparity in Triple Crown stats is exactly what taking a meaningful look at what drives success in baseball is all about. It's kind of the equivalent of pre Columbus saying, "People thinks the world is round. Look out your window and tell me what you think!!!"

* By the way, in MattihasWar, you get an extra 2 points for having the cooler nickname. Point FraGu.
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Re: Miguel Cabrera VS Franklin Gutierrez

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat Jun 12, 2010 4:14 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:The market value for a player like Guitierrez is about $5 million/year. if he was worth more, I assure somone would pay him more. It's not like you have some sort of wealth of secret information that every team in baseball doesn't have access to and knowledge of. Teams pay the most money to the players that help them win ballgames. I wouldn't be so quick to discredit the Phillies or their personel decisions. last I checked, they've been to a couple of world series' recently.

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Re: Miguel Cabrera VS Franklin Gutierrez

Postby thejusman1 » Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:37 am

None of this changes the fact that MCab has a 2.4 WAR and FraGu has a 2.1 WAR as of right now. Those of you voting FraGu and trying to justify your selection using WAR can't even do that, because you would lose your argument.

If you want to get into money/contracts, how about the fact that the media/fans are mostly fans of the long-ball? Having a slugger like Ryan Howard, Pujols, or MCab SELLS tickets. They are the reason why casual fans who don't have the slightest knowledge of sabermetric stats even go to games. Offense will always be sexier, more appealing, and more marketable, and thus profitable, than defense. People want to see those huge power numbers out of a 1B more so than a defensively gifted center fielder... unless that CF is also putting up ridiculous power numbers.
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Re: Miguel Cabrera VS Franklin Gutierrez

Postby Matthias » Sun Jun 13, 2010 11:24 am

thejusman1 wrote:None of this changes the fact that MCab has a 2.4 WAR and FraGu has a 2.1 WAR as of right now. Those of you voting FraGu and trying to justify your selection using WAR can't even do that, because you would lose your argument.

If you want to get into money/contracts, how about the fact that the media/fans are mostly fans of the long-ball? Having a slugger like Ryan Howard, Pujols, or MCab SELLS tickets. They are the reason why casual fans who don't have the slightest knowledge of sabermetric stats even go to games. Offense will always be sexier, more appealing, and more marketable, and thus profitable, than defense. People want to see those huge power numbers out of a 1B more so than a defensively gifted center fielder... unless that CF is also putting up ridiculous power numbers.

I kind of read it the other way around, actually. It's the OP who wanted to launch an assault on the idea that FraGu had equal or greater value than MCab because someone mentioned that FraGu had a higher WAR than MCab last year. So he posted this year's Triple Crown stats to try to say, "Who do you believe: WAR or traditional stats" either ignoring or not knowing that MCab was leading in both this year.

I won't argue with you that, "chicks dig the long ball." But at the end of the day, success breeds a fanbase. And teams may give some players a courtesy contract to keep around a fan favorite, but it's not something you want to do with a club that you really want to compete with and it's also not a good overall way to run your franchise. I think it's much more likely, and there's much more evidence, to support the claim that teams just don't price ballplayers perfectly rather than they figure out an, "on the field value" and then add a, "bringing them to the stands value." I'm not saying it's not ever done: I think Boras tried to make that exact pitch in the ARod negotiations. But I will say that it's something that I think it's much more common for teams to just pay the wrong amount for players.
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Re: Miguel Cabrera VS Franklin Gutierrez

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed Jun 23, 2010 5:27 pm

so.. I was just fiddling around on fangraphs and I noticed that Fragu is the 10th best centerfielder defensively and like the 30th best outfielder according to UZR/150..

I thought we were arguing that fragu has equal value to Miggy's offense because he plays such exceptional defense... but this leads me to believe he is no better of a player that Denard Span or Chris B. Young.. what gives???? :-? am I looking at the wrong defensive matric or something?

and.. if we're gonna pee all over ourselves because of someones defense, it appears carl crawford should be the player we like..

I don't know too much about this defensive matric stuff... is there something I'm missing?
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