Miguel Cabrera VS Franklin Gutierrez

[Pogotheostrich]

Let's say FG's defensive value is equal to M-Cab's offensive value. Wouldn't you rather have the offense since defense flucuates so much. What I mean is M-Cab is going to get 4-5 PA a game while FG might not get an opportunity in the field. It seems to me that FG values comes from random opportunities that are out of his control.

So long as the value is derived on a timer period (like a season) as opposed to a rate (value per chance), then no I wouldn't. Offensive value fluctuates tremendously as well. There are going to be days where MCab goes 0-4 with 4 Ks and games where he goes 4-4 with a double, and two homers.

I haven't done any research so this is just off the top of my head but I would think fielding fluctuates more because of the randomness of the opportunities. Even if FG is the best defensive CF in baseball how much more territory does he cover than the average CF? And won't the number of balls hit into that territory vary wildly from season to season?

[AquaMan2342]

How is this 50-50 in the voting... bunch of sabermetric math heads trying to argue about WAR.. even though Miggy's WAR is currently greater than FraGu's!!!!

This thread = fail.

Ask Neato.

[Neato Torpedo]

I read that as "meth heads" for a second.

[jake_harv88]

I dont know what we're yelling about!!!

Seriously though, what is this thread even about? First it was Miggy vs. FG, then a discussion on WAR, then a discussion on whether or not organizations know what they are doing. Now we are talking about meth?

Miggy by a mile

[lastingsgriller]

I think this argument is settled year after year in the playoffs.. After many years of being a twins fan it just hurts to have it proven to you year after year that no matter how good your defense is, it will be beaten by a better offense.

The Twins had Torii in center field and johan in his prime pitching to go with many other extremely good pitchers and fielders and over and over again the Yankees have made us look like children playing a man's game.

[bigh0rt]

Major League organizations are not stupid..

I would disagree.

I give you... the New York Mets...

[BitterDodgerFan]

oh i thought this poll was for who has a better nickname

FraGu "death to flying things" >>>> mcab

[Big Pimpin]

I haven't done any research so this is just off the top of my head but I would think fielding fluctuates more because of the randomness of the opportunities. Even if FG is the best defensive CF in baseball how much more territory does he cover than the average CF? And won't the number of balls hit into that territory vary wildly from season to season?

Yeah there's fluctuation in fielding due to the chances, specifically the "fringe" chances (I'm referring to the chances that maybe a great CF gets to but a mediocre one doesn't, which really show up and help a fielder prove their value). And it's going to be impacted by how good the fielders are around them and the tendencies of the pitching staff. Sure.

But you're not going to rely on one single number when you do projections. You're going to look at the past several years, and look at how a player has been trending, and all that. And if you think Gutierrez is a +20 CF (+/-5; he was +31 last year) and Cabrera is an average 1B (+/-5), that's a two win advantage. Then you factor in position, which is another 1.5 wins for Gutierrez, because it's easier to find an average 1B than it is an average CF. Now you just have to determine if Cabrera is 35 runs better than Franklin with the bat. Franklin was +7 last year (this year he's already matched that in 60 games since he's learned to walk), which means MCab would have to be +42 with the bat to be the guy you'd rather have. If you look at his past five years, he's averaged right around +40, beating +42 twice. I'd say it's basically a toss up.

And while MCab is winning the WAR battle right now, I don't think MCab is going to keep hitting quite as well as he has (although this just might be his career year) and I think Gutierrez's UZR is a bit low (Gutierrez would actually jump ahead of MCab if you used defensive runs saved from the Fielding Bible instead of UZR ). But time will tell.

I think this argument is settled year after year in the playoffs.. After many years of being a twins fan it just hurts to have it proven to you year after year that no matter how good your defense is, it will be beaten by a better offense.

The Twins had Torii in center field and johan in his prime pitching to go with many other extremely good pitchers and fielders and over and over again the Yankees have made us look like children playing a man's game.

The fact that you think Torii Hunter is good defensively is enough to tell me that you still have a lot to learn. FYI, the Twins were one of the very worst defensive teams in baseball last year. And the fact that they lost to the Yankees is proof of absolutely nothing except that the team with better players won that specific short series. I mean you only have to go all the way back to 2008 to see the top two defensive teams in a given year make the World Series (Rays and Phillies). In fact the Rays laughingstock-to-contender turnaround (which last I checked was still going strong) was due in large part to fixing the defense (Upton from 2B to CF, Delmon gone, Harris gone, Bartlett in, Longoria in at 3B).

[baseball77]

But WAR doesn't take into account the fact that Miguel has more HR than anyone else in the 7th inning or later and also more HR that have either tied the game or put the Tigers ahead this season. I see no reason to think Cabrera is going to slow down. He turned 27 in April and is entering his prime, not to mention the fact that he is now sober. Everything points to him putting up monster numbers and he has done nothing but that so far. His average hasn't been below .333 once this season and I think he's the most talented hitter in the AL.

[Neato Torpedo]

But WAR doesn't take into account the fact that Miguel has more HR than anyone else in the 7th inning or later and also more HR that have either tied the game or put the Tigers ahead this season. I see no reason to think Cabrera is going to slow down. He turned 27 in April and is entering his prime, not to mention the fact that he is now sober. Everything points to him putting up monster numbers and he has done nothing but that so far. His average hasn't been below .333 once this season and I think he's the most talented hitter in the AL.

His failure to hit home runs earlier in the game puts more pressure on the pitchers and puts them in higher leverage situations, which have a higher statistical correlation with arm injuries than low leverage situations.