Feeling Lucky? 25 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

[mrmarley]

COMPLETE LIST: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key= ... OeEE&hl=en

SORTABLE COMPLETE LIST: http://spreadsheets.google.com/lv?key=0 ... OeEE&hl=en

This doesn't include obvious players like Austin Jackson since he hasn't established a baseline yet. This is only for players with 110 PA in 2010 and at least 900 Major League at bats to compare career BABIP to 2010, luckiest and unluckiest so far:

LUCKIEST:
Name			Team	     '10BABIP '10AVG  Car.BABIP	Car.AVG
Justin Morneau		Twins		.423	.374	.295	.285
Fred Lewis		Blue Jays	.387	.305	.275	.296
Carlos Ruiz		Phillies	.361	.311	.270	.251
Austin Kearns		Indians		.402	.288	.304	.258
Adrian Beltre		Red Sox		.384	.342	.293	.272
Nick Swisher		Yankees		.367	.312	.281	.249
Miguel Olivo		Rockies		.370	.316	.298	.246
Ramon Hernandez		Reds		.341	.303	.276	.263
Ben Zobrist		Rays		.362	.303	.293	.267
Cristian Guzman		Nationals	.379	.324	.308	.273
Jonny Gomes		Reds		.364	.307	.298	.246
Nelson Cruz		Rangers		.352	.327	.297	.262
Cody Ross		Marlins		.359	.295	.307	.268
Jay Bruce		Reds		.318	.265	.272	.245
Mike Napoli		Angels		.355	.263	.305	.258
Robinson Cano		Yankees		.374	.366	.324	.310
Andre Ethier		Dodgers		.368	.376	.320	.296
Ian Kinsler		Rangers		.333	.287	.290	.280
Adam Dunn		Nationals	.336	.269	.294	.250
Alfonso Soriano		Cubs		.350	.299	.307	.279
Franklin Gutierrez	Mariners	.371	.293	.326	.271
Jason Bay		Mets		.373	.286	.329	.280
Evan Longoria		Rays		.362	.318	.321	.285
Ivan Rodriguez		Nationals	.361	.325	.323	.299
Jeff Keppinger		Astros		.319	.302	.287	.280

UNLUCKIEST:
Name			Team	     '10BABIP '10AVG  Car.BABIP	Car.AVG
Aaron Hill		Blue Jays	.175	.186	.299	.278
Mark Kotsay		White Sox	.177	.198	.297	.280
Akinori Iwamura		Pirates		.198	.172	.330	.270
Aramis Ramirez		Cubs		.187	.162	.288	.282
Gerald Laird		Tigers		.195	.162	.287	.242
Carlos Pena		Rays		.207	.176	.284	.244
A.J. Pierzynski		White Sox	.221	.217	.301	.283
Carlos Lee		Astros		.212	.206	.288	.289
Casey Kotchman		Mariners	.201	.194	.271	.262
Mark Teixeira		Yankees		.232	.220	.305	.287
Jeremy Hermida		Red Sox		.242	.208	.315	.261
Yunel Escobar		Braves		.244	.221	.317	.293
Luis Castillo		Mets		.256	.241	.330	.291
Lyle Overbay		Blue Jays	.257	.218	.318	.275
Brendan Ryan		Cardinals	.248	.200	.306	.267
Dustin Pedroia		Red Sox		.250	.254	.308	.302
Juan Pierre		White Sox	.258	.241	.316	.299
Nate McLouth		Braves		.229	.179	.280	.254
Juan Rivera		Angels		.233	.228	.284	.281
Delmon Young		Twins		.276	.272	.335	.289
Aaron Rowand		Giants		.263	.228	.319	.278
Jason Bartlett		Rays		.266	.231	.322	.282
Pedro Feliz		Astros		.221	.215	.267	.252
Corey Hart		Brewers		.250	.268	.302	.272
B.J. Upton		Rays		.280	.219	.336	.263

[Padsin05]

funniest thing I see on that list

Tony Gwynn....Car babip .341, car avg .338

uh those are Tony seniors no's, no wonder the kid is struggling so much

[mrmarley]

funniest thing I see on that list

Tony Gwynn....Car babip .341, car avg .338

uh those are Tony seniors no's, no wonder the kid is struggling so much

lol, nice catch, just glanced over his name...obviously need to put the "jr" in there for the formula to give the right results, doh.

[Neato Torpedo]

If you can somehow work xBABIP into the spreadsheet, it would be absolutely golden. It's pretty damn hard to do, though, especially if you're terrible at Excel like I am.

[LMack]

Dobbs' BABIP may be a little fluky given he only has 48 ABs this year, but useful stuff.

[Padsin05]

Dobbs' BABIP may be a little fluky given he only has 48 ABs this year, but useful stuff.

yah I think when it comes to reserve type players, they are more frequently gonna have up and down years, cause they dont get much playing time, and their AB's could come in tougher situations

[mrmarley]

Dobbs' BABIP may be a little fluky given he only has 48 ABs this year, but useful stuff.

yah I think when it comes to reserve type players, they are more frequently gonna have up and down years, cause they dont get much playing time, and their AB's could come in tougher situations

Good point...I bumped it to a minimum of 90 PA to take out the reserve players.

I'll check into xBABIP and see if there's a way to include that too.

[mrmarley]

If you can somehow work xBABIP into the spreadsheet, it would be absolutely golden. It's pretty damn hard to do, though, especially if you're terrible at Excel like I am.

Looks like it can be done. Do you know if the variables he has posted on that site/excel sheet are still valid? They were pulled from Prospectus for the 2002-2008 seasons.

[mrmarley]

Neato, you want to spot check these xBABIP's against your numbers to see if they match? Do you use IFFB + IFH from Fangraphs to figure out the popup #'s for the xBABIP calc? I might be off on my calculations somewhere...

Biggest difference in 2010 BABIP vs 2010 xBABIP, players with 110+ PA:

LUCKIEST:
Name			Team		xBABIP	DIFF	% DIFF '10BABIP '10AVG Car.BABIP Car.AVG
Justin Morneau		Twins		.275	.148	35.0%	.423	.374	.295	.285
Nick Hundley		Padres		.274	.110	28.7%	.384	.310		
Austin Kearns		Indians		.290	.112	27.9%	.402	.288	.304	.258
Brennan Boesch		Tigers		.268	.097	26.5%	.365	.318		
Austin Jackson		Tigers		.340	.105	23.7%	.445	.324		
Jonny Gomes		Reds		.280	.084	23.2%	.364	.307	.298	.246
Fred Lewis		Blue Jays	.299	.088	22.8%	.387	.305	.275	.296
Ichiro Suzuki		Mariners	.296	.087	22.6%	.383	.346	.358	.333
Adrian Beltre		Red Sox		.299	.085	22.1%	.384	.342	.293	.272
Jason Bay		Mets		.293	.080	21.5%	.373	.286	.329	.280
John Jaso		Rays		.256	.069	21.2%	.325	.308		
Ramon Hernandez		Reds		.269	.072	21.2%	.341	.303	.276	.263
Alfonso Soriano		Cubs		.276	.074	21.1%	.350	.299	.307	.279
Angel Pagan		Mets		.263	.066	20.0%	.329	.295	.324	.285
David Freese		Cardinals	.326	.074	18.5%	.400	.320		
Ryan Sweeney		Athletics	.290	.066	18.5%	.356	.309	.326	.287
Franklin Gutierrez	Mariners	.304	.067	18.1%	.371	.293	.326	.271
Carlos Ruiz		Phillies	.297	.064	17.7%	.361	.311	.270	.251
Nick Swisher		Yankees		.302	.065	17.7%	.367	.312	.281	.249
Colby Rasmus		Cardinals	.317	.068	17.5%	.385	.279		
Robinson Cano		Yankees		.308	.066	17.5%	.374	.366	.324	.310
Orlando Hudson		Twins		.280	.059	17.3%	.339	.305	.318	.283
Jayson Werth		Phillies	.297	.061	17.1%	.358	.295	.329	.267
Matt Holliday		Cardinals	.286	.058	17.0%	.344	.308	.351	.317
Evan Longoria		Rays		.301	.061	16.8%	.362	.318	.321	.285

UNLUCKIEST:

Name			Team		xBABIP	DIFF	% DIFF '10BABIP '10AVG Car.BABIP Car.AVG
Luis Valbuena		Indians		.299	-.127	-74.1%	.172	.134		
Mark Kotsay		White Sox	.289	-.112	-63.5%	.177	.198	.297	.280
Akinori Iwamura		Pirates		.322	-.124	-62.7%	.198	.172	.330	.270
Casey Kotchman		Mariners	.317	-.116	-57.9%	.201	.194	.271	.262
Aaron Hill		Blue Jays	.270	-.095	-54.4%	.175	.186	.299	.278
Brandon Wood		Angels		.297	-.097	-48.3%	.200	.156		
Gerald Laird		Tigers		.289	-.094	-48.2%	.195	.162	.287	.242
Carlos Pena		Rays		.297	-.090	-43.3%	.207	.176	.284	.244
Aramis Ramirez		Cubs		.258	-.071	-37.8%	.187	.162	.288	.282
Justin Smoak		Rangers		.264	-.071	-36.7%	.193	.190		
Carlos Lee		Astros		.282	-.070	-33.2%	.212	.206	.288	.289
Jeremy Hermida		Red Sox		.321	-.079	-32.6%	.242	.208	.315	.261
Jeff Clement		Pirates		.294	-.070	-31.4%	.224	.198		
Andruw Jones		White Sox	.297	-.064	-27.6%	.233	.230	.275	.257
Nate McLouth		Braves		.291	-.062	-27.2%	.229	.179	.280	.254
Luis Castillo		Mets		.324	-.068	-26.8%	.256	.241	.330	.291
Matt Treanor		Rangers		.305	-.064	-26.7%	.241	.210	.280	.230
A.J. Pierzynski		White Sox	.278	-.057	-25.9%	.221	.217	.301	.283
Pedro Feliz		Astros		.274	-.053	-24.2%	.221	.215	.267	.252
Seth Smith		Rockies		.314	-.059	-23.0%	.255	.268		
Lyle Overbay		Blue Jays	.316	-.059	-22.8%	.257	.218	.318	.275
Carlos Quentin		White Sox	.263	-.049	-22.8%	.214	.212	.251	.250
Mark Teixeira		Yankees		.285	-.053	-22.7%	.232	.220	.305	.287
Clint Barmes		Rockies		.287	-.049	-20.6%	.238	.219	.281	.255
Juan Rivera		Angels		.280	-.047	-20.0%	.233	.228	.284	.281

[Havok1517]

A lot of Reds on the luckiest list. Also, amazing that Cory Hart is listed on anything unlucky this season. 14 HR in 44! That is almost Giancarlo Cruz-Mike Stanton numbers, jk.