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Feeling Lucky? 25 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

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Feeling Lucky? 25 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

Postby mrmarley » Tue Jun 01, 2010 4:09 pm

COMPLETE LIST: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key= ... OeEE&hl=en

SORTABLE COMPLETE LIST: http://spreadsheets.google.com/lv?key=0 ... OeEE&hl=en

This doesn't include obvious players like Austin Jackson since he hasn't established a baseline yet. This is only for players with 110 PA in 2010 and at least 900 Major League at bats to compare career BABIP to 2010, luckiest and unluckiest so far:

LUCKIEST:
Name Team '10BABIP '10AVG Car.BABIP Car.AVG
Justin Morneau Twins .423 .374 .295 .285
Fred Lewis Blue Jays .387 .305 .275 .296
Carlos Ruiz Phillies .361 .311 .270 .251
Austin Kearns Indians .402 .288 .304 .258
Adrian Beltre Red Sox .384 .342 .293 .272
Nick Swisher Yankees .367 .312 .281 .249
Miguel Olivo Rockies .370 .316 .298 .246
Ramon Hernandez Reds .341 .303 .276 .263
Ben Zobrist Rays .362 .303 .293 .267
Cristian Guzman Nationals .379 .324 .308 .273
Jonny Gomes Reds .364 .307 .298 .246
Nelson Cruz Rangers .352 .327 .297 .262
Cody Ross Marlins .359 .295 .307 .268
Jay Bruce Reds .318 .265 .272 .245
Mike Napoli Angels .355 .263 .305 .258
Robinson Cano Yankees .374 .366 .324 .310
Andre Ethier Dodgers .368 .376 .320 .296
Ian Kinsler Rangers .333 .287 .290 .280
Adam Dunn Nationals .336 .269 .294 .250
Alfonso Soriano Cubs .350 .299 .307 .279
Franklin Gutierrez Mariners .371 .293 .326 .271
Jason Bay Mets .373 .286 .329 .280
Evan Longoria Rays .362 .318 .321 .285
Ivan Rodriguez Nationals .361 .325 .323 .299
Jeff Keppinger Astros .319 .302 .287 .280

UNLUCKIEST:
Name Team '10BABIP '10AVG Car.BABIP Car.AVG
Aaron Hill Blue Jays .175 .186 .299 .278
Mark Kotsay White Sox .177 .198 .297 .280
Akinori Iwamura Pirates .198 .172 .330 .270
Aramis Ramirez Cubs .187 .162 .288 .282
Gerald Laird Tigers .195 .162 .287 .242
Carlos Pena Rays .207 .176 .284 .244
A.J. Pierzynski White Sox .221 .217 .301 .283
Carlos Lee Astros .212 .206 .288 .289
Casey Kotchman Mariners .201 .194 .271 .262
Mark Teixeira Yankees .232 .220 .305 .287
Jeremy Hermida Red Sox .242 .208 .315 .261
Yunel Escobar Braves .244 .221 .317 .293
Luis Castillo Mets .256 .241 .330 .291
Lyle Overbay Blue Jays .257 .218 .318 .275
Brendan Ryan Cardinals .248 .200 .306 .267
Dustin Pedroia Red Sox .250 .254 .308 .302
Juan Pierre White Sox .258 .241 .316 .299
Nate McLouth Braves .229 .179 .280 .254
Juan Rivera Angels .233 .228 .284 .281
Delmon Young Twins .276 .272 .335 .289
Aaron Rowand Giants .263 .228 .319 .278
Jason Bartlett Rays .266 .231 .322 .282
Pedro Feliz Astros .221 .215 .267 .252
Corey Hart Brewers .250 .268 .302 .272
B.J. Upton Rays .280 .219 .336 .263
Last edited by mrmarley on Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:32 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Feeling Lucky? 20 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

Postby Padsin05 » Tue Jun 01, 2010 6:33 pm

funniest thing I see on that list

Tony Gwynn....Car babip .341, car avg .338

uh those are Tony seniors no's, no wonder the kid is struggling so much
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Re: Feeling Lucky? 20 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

Postby mrmarley » Tue Jun 01, 2010 6:50 pm

Padsin05 wrote:funniest thing I see on that list

Tony Gwynn....Car babip .341, car avg .338

uh those are Tony seniors no's, no wonder the kid is struggling so much


lol, nice catch, just glanced over his name...obviously need to put the "jr" in there for the formula to give the right results, doh.
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Re: Feeling Lucky? 20 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

Postby Neato Torpedo » Tue Jun 01, 2010 7:30 pm

If you can somehow work xBABIP into the spreadsheet, it would be absolutely golden. It's pretty damn hard to do, though, especially if you're terrible at Excel like I am.
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Re: Feeling Lucky? 20 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

Postby LMack » Tue Jun 01, 2010 7:38 pm

Dobbs' BABIP may be a little fluky given he only has 48 ABs this year, but useful stuff.
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Re: Feeling Lucky? 20 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

Postby Padsin05 » Tue Jun 01, 2010 10:54 pm

LMack wrote:Dobbs' BABIP may be a little fluky given he only has 48 ABs this year, but useful stuff.


yah I think when it comes to reserve type players, they are more frequently gonna have up and down years, cause they dont get much playing time, and their AB's could come in tougher situations
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Re: Feeling Lucky? 20 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

Postby mrmarley » Wed Jun 02, 2010 7:26 am

Padsin05 wrote:
LMack wrote:Dobbs' BABIP may be a little fluky given he only has 48 ABs this year, but useful stuff.


yah I think when it comes to reserve type players, they are more frequently gonna have up and down years, cause they dont get much playing time, and their AB's could come in tougher situations


Good point...I bumped it to a minimum of 90 PA to take out the reserve players.

I'll check into xBABIP and see if there's a way to include that too.
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Re: Feeling Lucky? 20 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

Postby mrmarley » Wed Jun 02, 2010 9:52 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:If you can somehow work xBABIP into the spreadsheet, it would be absolutely golden. It's pretty damn hard to do, though, especially if you're terrible at Excel like I am.


Looks like it can be done. Do you know if the variables he has posted on that site/excel sheet are still valid? They were pulled from Prospectus for the 2002-2008 seasons.
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Re: Feeling Lucky? 25 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

Postby mrmarley » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:17 pm

Neato, you want to spot check these xBABIP's against your numbers to see if they match? Do you use IFFB + IFH from Fangraphs to figure out the popup #'s for the xBABIP calc? I might be off on my calculations somewhere...

Biggest difference in 2010 BABIP vs 2010 xBABIP, players with 110+ PA:

LUCKIEST:
Name Team xBABIP DIFF % DIFF '10BABIP '10AVG Car.BABIP Car.AVG
Justin Morneau Twins .275 .148 35.0% .423 .374 .295 .285
Nick Hundley Padres .274 .110 28.7% .384 .310
Austin Kearns Indians .290 .112 27.9% .402 .288 .304 .258
Brennan Boesch Tigers .268 .097 26.5% .365 .318
Austin Jackson Tigers .340 .105 23.7% .445 .324
Jonny Gomes Reds .280 .084 23.2% .364 .307 .298 .246
Fred Lewis Blue Jays .299 .088 22.8% .387 .305 .275 .296
Ichiro Suzuki Mariners .296 .087 22.6% .383 .346 .358 .333
Adrian Beltre Red Sox .299 .085 22.1% .384 .342 .293 .272
Jason Bay Mets .293 .080 21.5% .373 .286 .329 .280
John Jaso Rays .256 .069 21.2% .325 .308
Ramon Hernandez Reds .269 .072 21.2% .341 .303 .276 .263
Alfonso Soriano Cubs .276 .074 21.1% .350 .299 .307 .279
Angel Pagan Mets .263 .066 20.0% .329 .295 .324 .285
David Freese Cardinals .326 .074 18.5% .400 .320
Ryan Sweeney Athletics .290 .066 18.5% .356 .309 .326 .287
Franklin Gutierrez Mariners .304 .067 18.1% .371 .293 .326 .271
Carlos Ruiz Phillies .297 .064 17.7% .361 .311 .270 .251
Nick Swisher Yankees .302 .065 17.7% .367 .312 .281 .249
Colby Rasmus Cardinals .317 .068 17.5% .385 .279
Robinson Cano Yankees .308 .066 17.5% .374 .366 .324 .310
Orlando Hudson Twins .280 .059 17.3% .339 .305 .318 .283
Jayson Werth Phillies .297 .061 17.1% .358 .295 .329 .267
Matt Holliday Cardinals .286 .058 17.0% .344 .308 .351 .317
Evan Longoria Rays .301 .061 16.8% .362 .318 .321 .285

UNLUCKIEST:

Name Team xBABIP DIFF % DIFF '10BABIP '10AVG Car.BABIP Car.AVG
Luis Valbuena Indians .299 -.127 -74.1% .172 .134
Mark Kotsay White Sox .289 -.112 -63.5% .177 .198 .297 .280
Akinori Iwamura Pirates .322 -.124 -62.7% .198 .172 .330 .270
Casey Kotchman Mariners .317 -.116 -57.9% .201 .194 .271 .262
Aaron Hill Blue Jays .270 -.095 -54.4% .175 .186 .299 .278
Brandon Wood Angels .297 -.097 -48.3% .200 .156
Gerald Laird Tigers .289 -.094 -48.2% .195 .162 .287 .242
Carlos Pena Rays .297 -.090 -43.3% .207 .176 .284 .244
Aramis Ramirez Cubs .258 -.071 -37.8% .187 .162 .288 .282
Justin Smoak Rangers .264 -.071 -36.7% .193 .190
Carlos Lee Astros .282 -.070 -33.2% .212 .206 .288 .289
Jeremy Hermida Red Sox .321 -.079 -32.6% .242 .208 .315 .261
Jeff Clement Pirates .294 -.070 -31.4% .224 .198
Andruw Jones White Sox .297 -.064 -27.6% .233 .230 .275 .257
Nate McLouth Braves .291 -.062 -27.2% .229 .179 .280 .254
Luis Castillo Mets .324 -.068 -26.8% .256 .241 .330 .291
Matt Treanor Rangers .305 -.064 -26.7% .241 .210 .280 .230
A.J. Pierzynski White Sox .278 -.057 -25.9% .221 .217 .301 .283
Pedro Feliz Astros .274 -.053 -24.2% .221 .215 .267 .252
Seth Smith Rockies .314 -.059 -23.0% .255 .268
Lyle Overbay Blue Jays .316 -.059 -22.8% .257 .218 .318 .275
Carlos Quentin White Sox .263 -.049 -22.8% .214 .212 .251 .250
Mark Teixeira Yankees .285 -.053 -22.7% .232 .220 .305 .287
Clint Barmes Rockies .287 -.049 -20.6% .238 .219 .281 .255
Juan Rivera Angels .280 -.047 -20.0% .233 .228 .284 .281
Last edited by mrmarley on Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Feeling Lucky? 25 luckiest and unluckiest hitters so far

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 4:04 pm

A lot of Reds on the luckiest list. Also, amazing that Cory Hart is listed on anything unlucky this season. 14 HR in 44! That is almost Giancarlo Cruz-Mike Stanton numbers, jk.
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