It seems like Colby Lewis has come back down to earth after his hot start. Hes striking out far fewer batters lately and walks have become an issue. In his past 3 starts he has allowed 12BB and just 10K's in 17.2inn, and his strikeout rate has generally declined over his past 6 starts. Also his home ballpark will become even tougher to pitch in as the heat of the Texas summer carries out more and more HR's...
Im thinking about replacing him with Ben Sheets, who was dropped over a month ago and is still a FA. After a an absolutely atrocious stretch at the end of april/early may, sheets seems to have found his stuff again. Hes stiking out batters at a great clip again and hasnt been giving up nearly as many hits. Over his past 5 starts he has struck out 35 and walked 13, allowing just 22 hits in 32 innings. And his home ballpark is a pitchers dream... the place where flyballs go to die.
Here is my roster so you can see what the rest of my pitching looks like:
10 team H2H league. --stats: H R SB HR AVG RBI C Rod Barajas 1B Paul Konerko 2B Ty Wigginton (1B,2B,3B) 3B Mark Reynolds (1B,3B) SS Hanley Ramírez OF Carlos González, Brett Gardner, Bobby Abreu Util Curtis Granderson BN Ian Stewart (2B,3B) BN Buster Posey DL Jacoby Ellsbury
--stats: W K ERA SV WHIP QS SP Tommy Hanson SP Roy Halladay SP Jaime García SP Matt Garza BN CC Sabathia BN Shaun Marcum BN Colby Lewis RP Andrew Bailey
The only thing concerns me with Sheets is his drop in velocity and walks. Ely has a great K/BB, but not amazing stuff. He could give you about league average production. Fister is relying a lot on GB outs, which is sustainable, but doesn't strike out a lot. Garland walks too many and doesn't strike out enough. Leake has been looking alright, but it could be interesting how the IP stack up for the young pitcher.
I think Lewis has the most potential season long, but it couldn't hurt you to take a flier on any of these. I'd probably take Leake or Ely depending on their next matchups.
Thanks for the feedback LMack. Leake's next scheduled start is @ Wash. Ely pitched vs AZ today and gave up just 2 hits, 2bb and 0 ER over 7inn. Great performance. His next start is sunday at home against Atl. Sheets pitches wednesday @ Boston.
I think i will evaluate Sheets start tomorrow, Lewis's start on wed vs CWS, and then make a decision. I just feel like i've already profited from the best Lewis has to offer and he will just be mediocre for the rest of the season. his career ERA is about 6(!) and his WHIP is an atrocious 1.67... I dont think he learned to pitch drastically better in Japan over the [ast 2 years to keep his current ratios where they are at over the course of the season.
Leake shouldnt be pitching any more than 150inn tops this season (but who knows with Dusty) so he shouldt be a factor in sept.
Ely pitched about 160inn in the minors last year so he should be good for near 200 this season. And Sheets obv has no limitations barring injury. So for me i guess it comes down to Ely/Sheets unless someone gives me a very convincing argument to keep Lewis around
I would see how the two starts play out today with Sheets and Lewis. I think I would be leaning towards dropping Lewis as well. It seems that you have ridden him for as much as you can right now. It's not like he is a proven durable starter, and those summer games and air in Texas will only make him come down to earth faster.
Sheets has pitched much better, and even if he just pitches ok against the Sox, I would be willing to give him a shot.
Sheets' performance today wasnt exactly stellar. He allowed 7hits (but just just 1 walk) over 6 innings, and allowed 4ER - the hits he he allowed came at very inoppurtune times. And he only managed 1 K, which wasnt what i was hoping for either after he had been averaging nearly 10K/9 his past 5 starts.
Guess ill have to see how colby fares tomorrow vs the ChiSox