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Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

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Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

Postby jfg » Tue Jun 01, 2010 2:03 am

Does he have a shot at 500? I think he might since he is purely a power hitter with a good eye and should be able to hit home runs into his late 30's. You never know if he juiced or not or if it matters or whatever, but if he can put together 6-7 decent seasons he's going to be a 500 HR hitter without steroids attached to his name. That's automatic HOF... wait what, Adam Dunn HOF?
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Re: Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Jun 01, 2010 2:10 am

He could finish this year with around 150 to go.
If he averages 25 per year for the next 6, he's there.

HOF?
As much as I love classic Moneyball guys, I think he's too one dimensional. If he adds a couple of rings or somehow hits 600 instead of 500, then yeah he's a chance.
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Re: Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

Postby jfg » Tue Jun 01, 2010 2:16 am

I don't know, 500 is a pretty exclusive club and the only people that might not have a chance in that club lies solely on steroids and the fact that they were front and center of the scandal. One dimensional or not, you have to consistently hit balls out of the park and have longevity. Even in the steroid era few players joined the club so if Dunn gets to 500 I think he gets in.
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Re: Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

Postby NZ Eff » Tue Jun 01, 2010 2:20 am

450 tops
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Re: Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Tue Jun 01, 2010 2:50 am

Dunn doesn't deserve HOF status because of his horrid defense. At least Edgar Martinez didn't cost his team runs by playing DH.
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Re: Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

Postby Zito is God » Tue Jun 01, 2010 2:58 am

I am a huge Adam Dunn fan, but with that said he will come up short of 500 and is not HoF status. Someone a while back said that to be a HoFer you need to have dominated the game for some years and I never thought of Dunn as someone who is "dominating' anything.
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Re: Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

Postby jfg » Tue Jun 01, 2010 3:08 am

I guess it depends on if you think 500 HR gets you in automatically. If you look purely at stats and don't let any outside stuff interfere with your criteria there isn't anybody in the club right now who isn't a HOF. Some people question Thome but I think he makes it pretty easily.

He'd have to get injured or just stop hitting home runs to only hit 450. There's no way he's going to stop hitting homers, he's a power hitter who can look for his pitch. He's 30 right now, he's still going to hit 30-40 for at least a couple more years. The only thing stopping him from hitting 500 is an injury.
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Re: Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

Postby AcidRock23 » Tue Jun 01, 2010 7:40 am

I think that if he can get an AL DH gig it would enhance his chances considerably? Particularly a gig in NY/Bos, however unlikely that may be? In a couple of years, as things shuffle around, I think that he could very well slide over to the junior circuit and set himself up nicely?
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Re: Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

Postby The Mighty Trow » Tue Jun 01, 2010 11:26 am

I think 500 is certainly attainable. I perosonally do not see him as a HOF player unless he hits some of the criteria AussieDodger laid out.

HRs are just one stat that has, in my mind, been overvalued at the expense of other statistics and intanglibles. Never mind the more recent sabermetric stats. If Dunn does hit or surpass 500, I hope it engenders a very lively discussion about what it takes to make the HOF and the value of HRs in that formula. I hope it also spark debate about the value of a player who perennialy plays for losing teams.

For the record, I say he pushes 600 but doesnt' quite make it. 570.
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Re: Adam Dunn Career HR's: What does he end up with?

Postby kab21 » Tue Jun 01, 2010 11:43 am

jfg wrote:I don't know, 500 is a pretty exclusive club and the only people that might not have a chance in that club lies solely on steroids and the fact that they were front and center of the scandal. One dimensional or not, you have to consistently hit balls out of the park and have longevity. Even in the steroid era few players joined the club so if Dunn gets to 500 I think he gets in.


The 500 HR club really isn't that exclusive (Palmeiro and Sheffield) and the steroid era (post 1990) is responsible for 10 out of 25 of the players in the 500 HR club. And regardless of steroids Palmeiro, Sheff and Thome are maybe's with regards to the HOF. Thome has the best case but he needs to find something that separates himself from the Palmeiro's (a borderline case w/o the steroids), McGriff's, Bagwell's, Delgado's, Berkman's, Edgar's, Mientkiewicz's and probably a dozen other 1B/DH sluggers from this era. I would probably put him on top of that list but was he that much better than these non-HOF'ers?

I think Dunn makes the 500 HR club unless his career drops off of a cliff in the next couple of years. But it won't be HOF worthy for the same reasons Thome is a marginal HOF'er.
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