jfg wrote:I don't know, 500 is a pretty exclusive club and the only people that might not have a chance in that club lies solely on steroids and the fact that they were front and center of the scandal. One dimensional or not, you have to consistently hit balls out of the park and have longevity. Even in the steroid era few players joined the club so if Dunn gets to 500 I think he gets in.
The 500 HR club really isn't that exclusive (Palmeiro and Sheffield) and the steroid era (post 1990) is responsible for 10 out of 25 of the players in the 500 HR club. And regardless of steroids Palmeiro, Sheff and Thome are maybe's with regards to the HOF. Thome has the best case but he needs to find something that separates himself from the Palmeiro's (a borderline case w/o the steroids), McGriff's, Bagwell's, Delgado's, Berkman's, Edgar's, Mientkiewicz's and probably a dozen other 1B/DH sluggers from this era. I would probably put him on top of that list but was he that much better than these non-HOF'ers?
I think Dunn makes the 500 HR club unless his career drops off of a cliff in the next couple of years. But it won't be HOF worthy for the same reasons Thome is a marginal HOF'er.