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Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

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Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

Postby thatguy27 » Sun May 30, 2010 4:46 pm

Does anyone else think that Greinke is far more likely to post numbers similar to his '08 season than his amazing '09 season?

Thus far his ERA, K/9, H/9, and BAA are more in line with what he did in '08 than '09. His WHIP is pretty much right in the middle at 1.17 (1.28 in '08 VS 1.07 in '09). I mean, his numbers are slightly better than they were in '09, but not by much (save, of course for his W-L which is abysmal due to his lack of run support, and strikingly worse than in '08).

Even if he posts numbers comparable to '08, he'll still be very valuable, but won't be worth anywhere near the 3rd round pick it likely to acquire him.

I know that his start against Colorado is a big reason for his numbers ballooning, but alas it must factor into the equation. And that bad game aside, he just hasn't seemed like the same dominant pitcher we grew accustomed to watching last season.

What are the Cafe's thoughts?
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Re: Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

Postby thatguy27 » Sun May 30, 2010 4:48 pm

Also, I know he's battled social anxiety disorder in the past, and you never know when something like that might come back. As someone who has suffered from this in the past, it really tends to flare up in high pressure situations.
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Re: Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

Postby mweir145 » Sun May 30, 2010 4:54 pm

This is what happens when you give up a lot of fly balls. Eventually some of them go yard, which didn't happen much last year for Greinke (a product of luck).

He's still pitching well, though, he'll be fine. I also expect the Ks to rise soon.
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Re: Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

Postby thatguy27 » Sun May 30, 2010 4:57 pm

mweir145 wrote:This is what happens when you give up a lot of fly balls. Eventually some of them go yard, which didn't happen much last year for Greinke (a product of luck).

He's still pitching well, though, he'll be fine. I also expect the Ks to rise soon.


No doubt he's still pitching well and valuable in every category outside of wins, but I'm just curious if we should expect numbers closer to '08 than '09? They'll almost certainly fall somewhere in between, I just have a feeling they'll be a lot closer to '08s numbers than '09s numbers.
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Re: Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

Postby mweir145 » Sun May 30, 2010 5:50 pm

thatguy27 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:This is what happens when you give up a lot of fly balls. Eventually some of them go yard, which didn't happen much last year for Greinke (a product of luck).

He's still pitching well, though, he'll be fine. I also expect the Ks to rise soon.


No doubt he's still pitching well and valuable in every category outside of wins, but I'm just curious if we should expect numbers closer to '08 than '09? They'll almost certainly fall somewhere in between, I just have a feeling they'll be a lot closer to '08s numbers than '09s numbers.

Well the 2.16 ERA was an aberration...he's not going to repeat that and he may never even reach it again in his career.

Greinke took significant steps as a pitcher last year and became elite, though. There's no reason to believe he's reverted back to his '08 form. He should have very good numbers going forward.
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Re: Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

Postby thatguy27 » Sun May 30, 2010 9:15 pm

Logic tells me that you're right. Ijust have a nagging feeling that perhaps he's not quite right mentally right now - that maybe he's pressing a little bit. Like I said, that social anxiety disorder can be crippling.
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Re: Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

Postby perlick29 » Sun May 30, 2010 10:08 pm

thatguy27 wrote:Logic tells me that you're right. Ijust have a nagging feeling that perhaps he's not quite right mentally right now - that maybe he's pressing a little bit. Like I said, that social anxiety disorder can be crippling.


Wouldn't go there necessarily, there's no evidence that says he's relapsing.

A good explanation is that last year his ability to strand runners when they got on base was ungodly. This year, it's normalized a bit, he's faced better offenses than last year, and a normal BABIP regression was to be expected. He wont have his CY Young form like last year but I wouldn't put it past him, being a top 5 pitcher by year's end.
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Re: Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

Postby Arrowhead Nation » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:43 pm

What Zack did in 09 was an outlier in terms of ERA. His #s in 2008, 13 wins, 3.47 ERA were VERY good. I would expect around a 3 ERA, which is still probably top-5 in the AL by season's end. Much of the hand-wringing over Greinke is media-created drivel.
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Re: Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

Postby Giambis » Thu Jun 03, 2010 3:50 pm

Another medicore start so far. Hanging sliders, bad command, and inefficient with his pitches. I still believe in this guy, but he is actually getting LUCKY this year. His xfip (4.34) was almost a run higher than his era (3.39), at least before this outing.
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Re: Greinke: Closer to '08 form than '09 form?

Postby swyck » Sun Jun 06, 2010 9:06 am

Yeah he's had a couple of bad starts lately, but he was solid before that. In other words he was looking fine and pitching at a high level, but now he's in a small slump.

IMO we can't say he's reverted to '08 yet, but we also can't realistically expect him to pitch at '09 form again either.
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