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Re: Site for sabermetric stats

Postby dubstar » Fri May 21, 2010 11:25 am

bigh0rt wrote:
dubstar wrote:
J.C.Fighter wrote:BABIP doesn't always tell the whole story though...remember that


definitely, what are some other things to look at to get a good picture? Other than common stats?

For batters, I check for anomalies in things like their LD% (see: Carlos Lee) and GB% and FB%. HR/FB in the early going can also be indicative of whether or not early power surges are sustainable or due to come crashing down.

For pitchers, FIP and xFIP are helpful and more telling than ERA. Also strand rate (LOB%) can also indicate luck or lack thereof.


Carlos Lee is a great example to help me understand some things. I was thinking about trying to by low on him. his LD% is lower than other years, and his GB% is higher. Is that a sign of a regression? does it indicate that he will not have a good year power wise?
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Re: Site for sabermetric stats

Postby Skin Blues » Fri May 21, 2010 11:28 am

LD% has a tendency to normalize. That said, I'd rather have a guy hitting line drives that are caught as opposed to popping everything up. Haven't looked too closely at Carlos Lee, but he has such a long track record that I wouldn't worry too much about him. Somebody must be poisoning all of the hitters in Houston, it's the only explanation.
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Re: Site for sabermetric stats

Postby AussieDodger » Fri May 21, 2010 11:40 am

I've found with a couple of hitters previously (can't remember who off hand), an unusual increase of GBs can mean that they're playing hurt. :-?
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Re: Site for sabermetric stats

Postby dubstar » Fri May 21, 2010 11:59 am

So just so I understand FIP...

It is a better measure of how a pitchers really pitched than ERA. If a pitchers ERA is 2.74, but their FIP is 3.99, this tells us that he had some luck and his ERA should naturally climb? and the opposite: Fi the FIP is lower than the ERA it says they have been unkucky and they may be a good buy low/pick up?

What is the difference in FIP and xFIP?
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Re: Site for sabermetric stats

Postby AussieDodger » Fri May 21, 2010 12:12 pm

dubstar wrote:SWhat is the difference in FIP and xFIP?


xFIP makes every pitcher have the league average HR/FB, which makes it a garbage stat IMO. :-t
It's polarising, some people love it and some hate it.
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Re: Site for sabermetric stats

Postby bigh0rt » Fri May 21, 2010 12:54 pm

dubstar wrote:So just so I understand FIP...

It is a better measure of how a pitchers really pitched than ERA. If a pitchers ERA is 2.74, but their FIP is 3.99, this tells us that he had some luck and his ERA should naturally climb? and the opposite: Fi the FIP is lower than the ERA it says they have been unkucky and they may be a good buy low/pick up?

It's not always the case, and guys can go a season or several seasons with an ERA negligibly higher or lower than their FIP and/or xFIP. Some styles of pitching and pitchers seem to just be that way. For a pitcher with a longer track record, comparing to what they've done in the past is a good starting point. Then you can investigate things like if they've added a pitch, change in velocity, ballpark, defense, etc.

But to answer your question, yes, if a pitcher's ERA is considerably higher than his FIP and/or xFIP, he may very well just be getting unlucky. Some guys, though, just suck. ;-)
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Re: Site for sabermetric stats

Postby Neato Torpedo » Fri May 21, 2010 1:48 pm

AussieDodger wrote:
dubstar wrote:SWhat is the difference in FIP and xFIP?


xFIP makes every pitcher have the league average HR/FB, which makes it a garbage stat IMO. :-t
It's polarising, some people love it and some hate it.

Well, IMO the window for a sustainable HR/FB rate for a major league pitcher is about 8.5% to 13.5% and anything outside that should be considered anomalous. Webb, who was the poster child of high HR/FB wormburners, had a single digit HR/FB rate in both '07 and '08. Of course, xFIP isn't the be-all, end-all stat but you have to do a little extra analysis. I think it's a useful tool when a pitcher is letting 'em fly at like 20% or 2%, or when you have a pitcher who doesn't have a meaningful HR/FB track record yet.
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