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LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

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LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

Postby thatguy27 » Sun May 16, 2010 5:16 pm

It's been a while since we've had a 300K season (I think the last to do it was either Pedro or RJ in the early part of the 2000's).

LIncecum is currently averaging 8.625 Ks per start. If he gets 35 starts - a pretty typical #, a bit above average - and maintains his current rate, it would put him just above 300 Ks (301.875 to be exact). He should get his 9th start in the Giants 39th or 40th game, which would put him on pace to start 36 games. He's currently King about 11/9IP. Last season he ked about 10.4/9IP. I think it's safe to assume this new rate is sustainable, and can be attributed to him improving some from last year to this year, given his age and career trajectory to date.

What do you all think are the odds that he Ks 300+?
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Re: LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

Postby HighHeater » Sun May 16, 2010 5:20 pm

i still think he's probably not going to reach 300k's even with the trajectory. I dont doubt him just that is a really incredible feat to do and i can see a slight dip in the k's as he wears down some over the season.
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Re: LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

Postby thatguy27 » Sun May 16, 2010 5:23 pm

Yeah, I tend to agree. I don't think the odds are in his favor, but I do think it's possible. I'd say maybe 3:1 odds (so about a 25% chance that he does it)?
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Re: LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

Postby thatguy27 » Sun May 16, 2010 5:27 pm

Actually, the last guys to K 300 were RJ and Schilling in 2002.
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Re: LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

Postby thatguy27 » Sun May 16, 2010 5:30 pm

Here's an article written last season about the possibility of him King 300+ (he obviously fell short by quite a bit).

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_le ... mlb,180436
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Re: LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sun May 16, 2010 5:35 pm

HighHeater wrote:i still think he's probably not going to reach 300k's even with the trajectory. I dont doubt him just that is a really incredible feat to do and i can see a slight dip in the k's as he wears down some over the season.

Tim Lincecum does not wear down. Ever. He could throw two complete games for both teams in a doubleheader and still have enough gas to do a hundred pull-ups with his pitching arm.
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Re: LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

Postby thedude » Sun May 16, 2010 8:22 pm

thatguy27 wrote: He's currently King about 11/9IP. Last season he ked about 10.4/9IP. I think it's safe to assume this new rate is sustainable, and can be attributed to him improving some from last year to this year, given his age and career trajectory to date.

What do you all think are the odds that he Ks 300+?


There have been 18 seasons where a pitcher has struck out 11+/9ip: Randy Johnson (seven times); Pedro Martinez (three times); Nolan Ryan (twice); Kerry Wood (three times); Curt Schilling; Hideo Nomo;Dwight Gooden.

So so it is very possible that his strike out rate will fall some. Also, he would need to not miss many (if any starts). Also he would need to continue go deep into games (which he probably will). So while it is possible he will strikeout 300, I think the odds are against him. I say 20% maybe.
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Re: LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

Postby DaSh 1s » Sun May 16, 2010 9:03 pm

thedude wrote:
thatguy27 wrote: He's currently King about 11/9IP. Last season he ked about 10.4/9IP. I think it's safe to assume this new rate is sustainable, and can be attributed to him improving some from last year to this year, given his age and career trajectory to date.

What do you all think are the odds that he Ks 300+?


There have been 18 seasons where a pitcher has struck out 11+/9ip: Randy Johnson (seven times); Pedro Martinez (three times); Nolan Ryan (twice); Kerry Wood (three times); Curt Schilling; Hideo Nomo;Dwight Gooden.

So so it is very possible that his strike out rate will fall some. Also, he would need to not miss many (if any starts). Also he would need to continue go deep into games (which he probably will). So while it is possible he will strikeout 300, I think the odds are against him. I say 20% maybe.


Which means 80% percent
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Re: LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sun May 16, 2010 9:08 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
thedude wrote:
thatguy27 wrote: He's currently King about 11/9IP. Last season he ked about 10.4/9IP. I think it's safe to assume this new rate is sustainable, and can be attributed to him improving some from last year to this year, given his age and career trajectory to date.

What do you all think are the odds that he Ks 300+?


There have been 18 seasons where a pitcher has struck out 11+/9ip: Randy Johnson (seven times); Pedro Martinez (three times); Nolan Ryan (twice); Kerry Wood (three times); Curt Schilling; Hideo Nomo;Dwight Gooden.

So so it is very possible that his strike out rate will fall some. Also, he would need to not miss many (if any starts). Also he would need to continue go deep into games (which he probably will). So while it is possible he will strikeout 300, I think the odds are against him. I say 20% maybe.


Which means 80% percent

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Re: LIncecum - Will he K 300+?

Postby DaSh 1s » Sun May 16, 2010 10:01 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:
DaSh 1s wrote:
thedude wrote:
There have been 18 seasons where a pitcher has struck out 11+/9ip: Randy Johnson (seven times); Pedro Martinez (three times); Nolan Ryan (twice); Kerry Wood (three times); Curt Schilling; Hideo Nomo;Dwight Gooden.

So so it is very possible that his strike out rate will fall some. Also, he would need to not miss many (if any starts). Also he would need to continue go deep into games (which he probably will). So while it is possible he will strikeout 300, I think the odds are against him. I say 20% maybe.


Which means 80% percent

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