I've been fortunate to reap the benefits of Hughes' terrific start, but I'm beginning to think he might be a sell-high candidate. His incredibly low BABIP (~.225), high strand rate (~85%), and microscopic HR/FB rate (~2.5%) are entirely unsustainable... Add to that I just don't know how long a guy can succeed as a starter throwing his fastball 85% of the time (albeit a mix of 4s, 2, and cutter ) while dropping an occasional hook in there..
Obviously his numbers are due for some regression... but how much?
Also, supposedly he is on an innings count of 170 or something? I forget the number I just know I heard something about this earlier in the year. So he may not be pitching much come late August into Sept. I'd definately be shopping him aggressively if I had him.
I think selling is an absolute priority here. I've also benefited from his nice start, but his value is going to go downhill quickly after the ASB.
Last year he pitched a total of 105 major- and minor-league innings. 2008 he pitched about 75. 2007 he had just over 100.
If the Yankees think they're going to be able to get away with bumping him up to 170+ IP, they're crazy... and that's even assuming they can start skipping him in the rotation, which they may not do.
I figure come June he's a MUST-sell for me. And if he does get over 170 innings in this year, he won't be anywhere close to ANY of my teams next year... his arm is going to fall off with that kind of increased workload.
Come July, when everybody is talking about this and it's splattered all over Yahoo, he's going to have zero trade value, even if he's still pitching decently.
ensanimal wrote:He should be in the pen and Joba definitely should be starting in the 5th spot.
There are a few things with the New York Yankees that never change. That's pride, tradition, and most of all, we have the greatest fans in the world. -Derek Jeter, 9/21/08 -- last words from old Yankee Stadium
Is there any research done on these innings pitched increases, pitch count limits, and all that? I'm not being facetious, I'm seriously wondering. I assume there is a huge amount of variance on how certain IP counts affect different players. Starting a dozen games and throwing 80 IP is certainly different than being a reliever and throwing 80 IP. Not to mention relievers warm up more often than they actually pitch, they pitch back-to-back days, etc. This whole "limit him to 170" thing seems very arbitrary and a bunch of anecdotal hocus pocus, if you ask me. There certainly should be concern with over-use, but intuitively a guy throwing 120 pitches every 5 days and being shut down in August is far more harmful than consistently throwing 100 pitches every 5 days all season. So many variables to account for. So is there any actual data on this? It can't be hard for somebody with the resources to run the numbers.
Skin Blues wrote:Is there any research done on these innings pitched increases, pitch count limits, and all that? I'm not being facetious, I'm seriously wondering. I assume there is a huge amount of variance on how certain IP counts affect different players. Starting a dozen games and throwing 80 IP is certainly different than being a reliever and throwing 80 IP. Not to mention relievers warm up more often than they actually pitch, they pitch back-to-back days, etc. This whole "limit him to 170" thing seems very arbitrary and a bunch of anecdotal hocus pocus, if you ask me. There certainly should be concern with over-use, but intuitively a guy throwing 120 pitches every 5 days and being shut down in August is far more harmful than consistently throwing 100 pitches every 5 days all season. So many variables to account for. So is there any actual data on this? It can't be hard for somebody with the resources to run the numbers.
Exactly the thing I was going to post... they actually just discussed this one of the ESPN Baseball Today podcasts.
Increasing a pitchers innings by 30% in one season leads to HUGE disparities in rates of injuries and performance the following year (see: Cole Hamels).
Going from 100 IP to 170 IP is the next best thing to career suicide for Hughes, even if that many innings doesn't seem like too much when others are throwing 240+. Of course, if it's the only reasonable shot the Yankees have at post-season success, they'll put his arm into that woodchipper faster than Dusty Baker would.
Exactly the thing I was going to post... they actually just discussed this one of the ESPN Baseball Today podcasts.
Increasing a pitchers innings by 30% in one season leads to HUGE disparities in rates of injuries and performance the following year (see: Cole Hamels).
Going from 100 IP to 170 IP is the next best thing to career suicide for Hughes, even if that many innings doesn't seem like too much when others are throwing 240+. Of course, if it's the only reasonable shot the Yankees have at post-season success, they'll put his arm into that woodchipper faster than Dusty Baker would.
Um...the.....following....year.....
I haven't been able to follow any rationale in this post for selling high THIS year. Unless you just think he stinks, is overrated, and will blow up any day now. If its a keeper, OK but make that point.
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by Merrick65 » Fri May 14, 2010 3:32 pm 
