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Miguel Cabrera All Star

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Re: Miguel Cabrera All Star

Postby lastingsgriller » Thu May 06, 2010 11:50 am

Inukchuk wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:40ish? Miggy is a career .313 hitter.. but more importanatly it seems that Cabrerra has topped out. he's shown us how good he is capable of being. Which is no doubt exceptional.. .320, 34 hr, 115 RBI.. but whats scary about longoria is that he is just about there. he is there in hr and RBI and this is only his 3rd season. he made significant progress last season and looks this year as though he is still getting better. no clue where the ceiling is for longoria. but is .310, 42hr, 125 RBI impossible? no, it is safe to say that it is not. and he plays 3rd base. :^


Eh, the problem with using Miggy's career average is it takes his age 19 and 20 seasons into account. Since then, his career avg (which is more than enough of a sample size to base projection on, IMO) is 321. If you really want to drive the point home, you could discount his first year in Detroit (292) as an adjustment period. Aside from that year, his lowest yearly average was 320. He's a legitimate threat to win the batting crown every year, and I have no problem projecting at least a 325 avg from him.

Clearly, Longo is young and still developing, but with the K rates he carries (and has always carried), I see no way he ever gets to 310 barring a fluky BABIP year.

Look at it this way: from age 20 to 24, Cabrera carried a 313 avg all compiled against major league pitching. During the same age span, Longoria batted 289, but 40% of his ABs were against minor league pitching.

So to answer your question: a 310 avg might not be impossible, but I find it to be very improbable. Also, to say Cabrera has topped out in May of his age 27 season is a bit ridiculous, in my opinion. ...


I don't really see how you can throw out any averages.. becasue if you are going to throw out outliers than you probably have to throw out the year he hit .339 as well.. because for some reason that year he sacrificed power for line drives, hence only 26 hr's but 50 doubles.. (career low in hr's and career high in doubles) which is most likely the reason for the outlier average.


Inukchuk wrote:By the way, did you really need to include that smug little smiley at the end? Pretty rude way to respond, imo...


no.. no ill will meant here. I love both of these players and think a valid argument can be made from both sides.. maybe would have been better to use the "tounge in cheek" guy.. ;-7
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Re: Miguel Cabrera All Star

Postby AquaMan2342 » Thu May 06, 2010 11:59 am

Inukchuk wrote:By the way, did you really need to include that smug little smiley at the end? Pretty rude way to respond, imo...


:-b
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Re: Miguel Cabrera All Star

Postby Inukchuk » Thu May 06, 2010 12:06 pm

So I guess the question is, did you project Miggy to hit 313 this season due to his career average? As I said, the only years I really discounted are his very early ones, due to the fact that his avg has been so consistently good in the 5 years since then.

The only point I'm trying to make is that Longoria is by no means a lock to outproduce Cabrera. I'd be more comfortable assuming the opposite, particularly since it has yet to happen.
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Re: Miguel Cabrera All Star

Postby bazzy_51 » Thu May 06, 2010 12:09 pm

Inukchuk wrote:Eh, the problem with using Miggy's career average is it takes his age 19 and 20 seasons into account. Since then, his career avg (which is more than enough of a sample size to base projection on, IMO) is 321. If you really want to drive the point home, you could discount his first year in Detroit (292) as an adjustment period. Aside from that year, his lowest yearly average was 320. He's a legitimate threat to win the batting crown every year, and I have no problem projecting at least a 325 avg from him.

Look at it this way: from age 20 to 24, Cabrera carried a 313 avg all compiled against major league pitching. During the same age span, Longoria batted 289, but 40% of his ABs were against minor league pitching.


So then wouldn't you have to throw out Longoria's first year in the majors because he also needed an adjustment period? Thats been his lowest average so far, and would raise the .289 you talked about?
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Re: Miguel Cabrera All Star

Postby lastingsgriller » Thu May 06, 2010 12:25 pm

lastingsgriller wrote: .320, 34 hr, 115 RBI..


I predicted .320 for Cabrera. but as I said, I would take Longoria because we don't know yet even know how good he can be. It seems that every month that goes by, he becomes a better player.

all I am saying is that you know what your getting from cabrera. and that consistancy is great. and the safe play between the two is to go Miggy. But I personally would rather go with the higher risk/reward guy. because..
1. he's still a pretty safe bet to get the power numbers you are looking for and...
2. we don't even know, Longoria could be on a whole different level. he hasn't even played two full seasons yet.

It's a personal preference, but for my money I'm going Longo.
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Re: Miguel Cabrera All Star

Postby Inukchuk » Thu May 06, 2010 2:06 pm

bazzy_51 wrote:
Inukchuk wrote:Eh, the problem with using Miggy's career average is it takes his age 19 and 20 seasons into account. Since then, his career avg (which is more than enough of a sample size to base projection on, IMO) is 321. If you really want to drive the point home, you could discount his first year in Detroit (292) as an adjustment period. Aside from that year, his lowest yearly average was 320. He's a legitimate threat to win the batting crown every year, and I have no problem projecting at least a 325 avg from him.

Look at it this way: from age 20 to 24, Cabrera carried a 313 avg all compiled against major league pitching. During the same age span, Longoria batted 289, but 40% of his ABs were against minor league pitching.


So then wouldn't you have to throw out Longoria's first year in the majors because he also needed an adjustment period? Thats been his lowest average so far, and would raise the .289 you talked about?


No, I think you misunderstood. I said you could throw out Miggy's first year in Detroit if you thought it was an outlier. In comparing their age 20-24 numbers, I used every year in both players' years, which included each players' first 2 years in the majors. That time period didn't include Miggy's first year in Detroit, so that's a moot point.

Lastings, I have no problem with that reasoning. If you feel Longo still has significant room to grow, there's no problem with taking him early. As you mentioned, it is conceivable that Longo outproduces Cabrera. But I also think there's a very good chance the opposite happens. As of right now, I feel they're very close in value, but I prefer the less risky play myself.

In a way, all this really discussion really drives home the op's point that Cabrera has become so consistently good, he's somewhat boring. I for one appreciate the fact that if you end up with Cabrera, you know almost exactly what you're going to get with next to no risk. These days, it seems as if everyone is so obsessed with upside and finding the next big thing, that consistency has become a bit undervalued, oddly enough...
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Re: Miguel Cabrera All Star

Postby AussieDodger » Thu May 06, 2010 2:12 pm

Inukchuk wrote:In a way, all this really discussion really drives home the op's point that Cabrera has become so consistently good, he's somewhat boring. I for one appreciate the fact that if you end up with Cabrera, you know almost exactly what you're going to get with next to no risk. These days, it seems as if everyone is so obsessed with upside and finding the next big thing, that consistency has become a bit undervalued, oddly enough...


Yep Cabrera is brilliant. Plug him in on the first day of the season, and don't worry about him.

Regards,

Satisfied 2nd year Cabrera owner.
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Re: Miguel Cabrera All Star

Postby mtxdevil » Fri May 07, 2010 7:19 pm

Another HR today early. As I said before, he will put up career numbers this season.
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Re: Miguel Cabrera All Star

Postby baseball77 » Fri May 07, 2010 7:25 pm

He just went yard again. That brings his season line to .377/.454/.684 with an OPS of 1.138, good for tops in MLB in H, TB, RBI, and AVG. and 2nd in MLB in OBP and OPS
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Re: Miguel Cabrera All Star

Postby moochman » Fri May 07, 2010 9:18 pm

He's good.
What is exciting about Miggy is that if last year's embarrassing drunken escape(s) made him decide to take better care of himself and focus more on the game, his numbers should go up. And that is saying a ton for a guy who was putting up HOF numbers to begin with. Hey, it's early in the season so I temper my enthusiasm. I just know I would love to have his bat in my line-up anyday, everyday.
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