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Is Johan hurt?

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Is Johan hurt?

Postby krunchyfrogg » Mon May 03, 2010 1:30 pm

Johan Santana hasn't pitched like Johan Santana this season. He's topped out at 92, and often struggles to hit 90 mph on the radar gun. I know he had bone chips removed from his elbow in the offseason.

Is he going to recover this season, or should I try to move him and hope somebody bites based on his name and reputation?
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Re: Is Johan hurt?

Postby ROC AllStars » Mon May 03, 2010 1:48 pm

Is he hurt? No. Is his skill set declining? Yes. Johan's velocity has been declining for a few years now. This doesn't mean that he can't or won't be effective this year, but it probably does mean that his days as the undisputed number 1 SP in baseball are over. I would still, however, put him in the top 15 at worst, which means that for most fantasy formats he's a solid #2 and borderline as a staff ace.
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All this being considered, he looked pretty darn good prior to last night's thumping. I believe he had a 2.08 ERA coming in last night over 5 games, and a 28:9 K:BB ratio over 30 innings. Those are very solid numbers.
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Re: Is Johan hurt?

Postby Greg Stink » Mon May 03, 2010 11:28 pm

I wouldn't put too much into Santana's "performance" against the Phillies Sunday. The Phillies lineup will make a lot of pitchers look bad. Yohan got what he deserved though last night. He was throwing way to many fastballs, and many of them were up and over the middle of the plate. I don't know why he was throwing so many fastballs instead of mixing in more changeups and curves to keep hitters off balance (like normal). But for whatever reason he did not have his best stuff last night. Bad location, bad pitch selection = recipe for disaster. He just had a bad game, I don't think he's hurt.
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Re: Is Johan hurt?

Postby bazzy_51 » Tue May 04, 2010 12:01 am

Greg Stink wrote:I wouldn't put too much into Santana's "performance" against the Phillies Sunday. The Phillies lineup will make a lot of pitchers look bad. Yohan got what he deserved though last night. He was throwing way to many fastballs, and many of them were up and over the middle of the plate. I don't know why he was throwing so many fastballs instead of mixing in more changeups and curves to keep hitters off balance (like normal). But for whatever reason he did not have his best stuff last night. Bad location, bad pitch selection = recipe for disaster. He just had a bad game, I don't think he's hurt.


So we are just supposed to 'throw' that start away, because it was against the Phillies? Niese just 3 nights prior held the Phillies to a single run in 7IP. You can't overlook that thus far in the year Johan is definitely not the same pitcher. I mean he only has 2 real blow ups, but with the elbow they have limited him, so even in his good outings we are still only seeing a max of 6-7IP a night. Its also no secret like the first poster said, his fastball doesn't have the same zip on it that it has had prior.

I really think the major question is when will he be back to 100% with that elbow, because I have a real good feeling hes not, but once he is hes tops in the game again. Its just the fact that it will be time before that happens, and outings like his last do nothing good for him.
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Re: Is Johan hurt?

Postby Greg Stink » Tue May 04, 2010 1:02 am

outings like his last do nothing good for him.


Trust me his outing didn't do anything good for my fantasy team either. You make some good points. Maybe he's not all the way back. I don't know, but he's looked pretty good for the most part from what I've seen. Coming into the game last night he only had allowed 1 run in his last 21 innings. So I am definitely not ready to push the panic button yet. That's all I'm saying.
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Re: Is Johan hurt?

Postby ROC AllStars » Tue May 04, 2010 4:51 pm

Johan's always been a 6-7 inning pitcher. He only has 9 CG over his 10 year career. Regarding his performance, bear in mind that he's traditionally been much better in the 2nd half than the 1st half (64 W, 43 L, 3.46 ERA career 1st half; 61 W 19 L, 2.73 ERA career 2nd half). He's particularly good in August (28/7, 2.51 ERA). All that being said, his velocity has been declining for several years running, which makes him a top 15 rather than a top 5 SP. No, we can't disregard the thumping he took against the Phils, but we shouldn't take it to mean that he's finished, either.
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