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Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

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Re: Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

Postby AquaMan2342 » Tue Apr 20, 2010 11:48 pm

AussieDodger wrote:I'm buying.


Elaborate, because I am honestly starting to think he might never take that next step. Obviously he can't do much worse than he is doing, so he'll improve...but I don't think he'll ever reach the level we thought he would.
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Re: Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Apr 21, 2010 12:17 am

AquaMan2342 wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:I'm buying.


Elaborate, because I am honestly starting to think he might never take that next step. Obviously he can't do much worse than he is doing, so he'll improve...but I don't think he'll ever reach the level we thought he would.


He's only 25, and he keeps adjusting the ratios of his pitch types every year. Obviously he hasn't quite found the right formula that he is comfortable with yet.

Also, it doesn't appear he had a handle on his curveball in '10 before today, which looks to be his most valuable pitch (according to fangraphs). He had only thrown it 2% of the time, compared to 22% last year. And it has been clocked at 70 instead of the normal 78. It doesn't look as if he has his slider under control this year either.

If a pitcher is still young and finding himself and is a 8.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 45% GB pitcher ('09 stats), and has that 2008 under his belt, I'm buying where there is an opportunity.
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Re: Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

Postby urbanbreez » Wed Apr 21, 2010 12:30 am

AussieDodger wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:I'm buying.


Elaborate, because I am honestly starting to think he might never take that next step. Obviously he can't do much worse than he is doing, so he'll improve...but I don't think he'll ever reach the level we thought he would.


He's only 25, and he keeps adjusting the ratios of his pitch types every year. Obviously he hasn't quite found the right formula that he is comfortable with yet.

Also, it doesn't appear he had a handle on his curveball in '10 before today, which looks to be his most valuable pitch (according to fangraphs). He had only thrown it 2% of the time, compared to 22% last year. And it has been clocked at 70 instead of the normal 78. It doesn't look as if he has his slider under control this year either.

If a pitcher is still young and finding himself and is a 8.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 45% GB pitcher ('09 stats), and has that 2008 under his belt, I'm buying where there is an opportunity.


Hard to argue against that logic but the fact that his velocity is down causes my concern more than anything else he's doing this year.
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Re: Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

Postby The Artful Dodger » Wed Apr 21, 2010 12:56 am

I managed to catch some of Bills' game, but I didn't pay great attention to his outing pitch-by-pitch.

He was OK the first inning or so, but then he gave up 5-6 hits in a row, starting with a leadoff HR from Phillips. Then, Bills proceeds to give up a few line drives and a flyball double to the warning track to Bruce. He also had a terrible throwing error, which had shown that he was clearly rattled. On paper, this might seem like solid evidence that Bills' velocity is off because he tends to induce more groundballs. He wasn't quite healthy down the second half last year, of course, and to the best of my recollection, he was giving up more flyballs then. Billingsley's velocity was fine in that bad second half, but I'd say his struggles then were more or less attributed to fatigue (hamstring/hip). A pitcher that derives so much of his power from his legs, is likely to have spotty location on a leg ailment or two.

Another thing is he's still adjusting to his new mechanics. A rough start to the year, I suppose, was to be expected perhaps. He's been effective in spots, however, and he can't avoid the big inning, like tonight. Might be mental, might be mechanics, but I'd have to wait and see a few more starts to see if this is indeed a dip in velocity.
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Re: Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

Postby DbacksRback » Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:41 am

someone dropped him in one of my leagues so i picked him up and thought he could be decent today... :-P
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Re: Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Apr 21, 2010 8:16 am

.412 BABIP (.308 career), 4.37 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, 53.7 LOB% (75.6% career), 10.0% HR/FB (8.6% career).

I'm buying too.
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Re: Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

Postby Element » Wed Apr 21, 2010 2:28 pm

thatguy27 wrote:
Element wrote:I am a Bills owner too. Fortunately, I also own Votto, Bruce and Kemp. I am first in my money league in ERA and dead last in WHIP. How does that even happen?!


Luck, I imagine. I'd be worried that your ERA may soon explode, too.


Grienke and Slowey just put that to bed. Things are evening out like they always do.
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Re: Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

Postby wrveres » Thu Aug 11, 2011 6:25 am

Chad Billingsley ...
You Are Ruining My Life!!
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Re: Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

Postby wrveres » Thu Aug 11, 2011 6:27 am

AquaMan2342 wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:I'm buying.


Elaborate, because I am honestly starting to think he might never take that next step. Obviously he can't do much worse than he is doing, so he'll improve...but I don't think he'll ever reach the level we thought he would.
Smart man!
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Re: Chad Billingsley, You Are Ruining My Life

Postby AussieDodger » Thu Aug 11, 2011 6:58 am

wrveres wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:I'm buying.


Elaborate, because I am honestly starting to think he might never take that next step. Obviously he can't do much worse than he is doing, so he'll improve...but I don't think he'll ever reach the level we thought he would.
Smart man!


Still buying.
He still hits all the appropriate levels for K/9, BB/9 and GB%. And FIP still likes him.
Tried to buy for 4/$19 at the auction, but got matched. :-C
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