Liriano vs. Boston

[friedrich15]

man im tempted to start him in my H2H league ......i know its boston but i just hate benching pitchers this early .....what is everyone else doin?

[ghosty]

wondering this myself

[Starksfor3]

I have him and I'm benching him. No doubter in my mind. He's going to walk like 10 batters and get shelled.

[Hes So Taguchi]

As much as I hate sitting my guys, especially this early, there is no way I can justify starting Liriano until he gives me a reason to. This goes double since he's facing Boston.

[Tony Micelli]

I sat him too. However, with my luck so far this season, Liriano will probably end up doing awesome.

[Hes So Taguchi]

Well Liriano is killing it, of course. The right decision was still to bench him though IMO. Gotta be happy looking forward for Liriano owners though!

[pnoozi]

The way I see it, if you're not confident about starting Liriano against certain teams, he's not reliable enough to be on a fantasy team. Reality is that any team can have a breakout day on offense. If you worry about your starting pitchers too much you'll end up missing out on quality starts and lots of strikeouts.

[Hes So Taguchi]

It's not so much that he was going against Boston, although that obviously entered the calculus. Liriano is a guy who has had success in the past but he's coming off injuries and a couple bad years. It makes sense to give him a couple starts before you decide to enter him into your lineups. After this week I won't have any problem giving him a go his next start.

[Tony Micelli]

The way I see it, if you're not confident about starting Liriano against certain teams, he's not reliable enough to be on a fantasy team. Reality is that any team can have a breakout day on offense. If you worry about your starting pitchers too much you'll end up missing out on quality starts and lots of strikeouts.

Dude, before this game ... liriano was 0-2 against Boston with a 13.50 era, a whip well over 2, and Boston was hitting 400 against him as a team. And all as a starter.

Also, Liriano's previous start against the white sox he struggled to get through 6 innings, while issuing 5 walks. And let's not even get into the year he had last year.

It's real easy to say "I told ya so" after the fact and when he is pitching very well.

So, if Liriano had gotten rocked, would you still be here scolding the people who sat him?

[MTUCache]

The way I see it, if you're not confident about starting Liriano against certain teams, he's not reliable enough to be on a fantasy team. Reality is that any team can have a breakout day on offense. If you worry about your starting pitchers too much you'll end up missing out on quality starts and lots of strikeouts.

I'm going to emphatically disagree with this. Completely incorrect in my mind. H2H it may be worth the gamble, but in roto you absolutely cannot afford to be starting questionable pitchers in games where there is a good chance they're going to be shelled. There's more than enough innings out there for your pitchers to use them only in break-even or advantageous situations. No reason to go looking for trouble, starting guys against the Yankees/Tampa, in Texas, etc.

Spot-starting guys is an absolutely valid tactic for most pitchers in the league. Pitchers outside of the top-two in each rotation will have predictable results in the long-term when started against lineups of different strengths.

Unless you're in a league where there's a HUGE inning cap, and the disadvantage in ratios can be offset by advantages in counting stats, you should be spot-starting most of your pitchers. If you're in a league with a 1200 IP-max, for instance, and assuming you're going to get 250IP out of you bullpen* and 450 out of your two ace "everyday" starters, I'd much rather get those remaining 500 IP out of four (or even five) spot-starters in good matchups than just take whatever you get out of three mid- to bottom-tier starters who are going to get shelled in a few of their games.

*-actually, I like to get more like 400 IP out of my pen, but that's a different strategy, depending on league settings.

I definitely benched Liriano today against Boston, in my H2H league no less, and I'm not regretting it. Boston has perennially bashed his head in (13.50 career ERA against BOS, according to ESPN's Daily Notes, and a scary 2 ranking). Maybe Boston's offense is cooling down quite a bit from a few years ago, and I won't be sitting guys as much against them this year, but for now I'll spot-start guys like this every week when they run into top-five offenses or pitch in very unfriendly parks.