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Re: The Other Ricky

Postby rookies and cream » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:47 pm

mweir145 wrote:
thatguy27 wrote:
rookies and cream wrote:Update:

Santana
ERA: 3.66
WHIP: 1.33
W-L: 8-4
K: 85


Romero
ERA: 3.69
WHIP: 1.39
W-L: 5-5
K: 90


Tight race except for Wins, which I doubt should be considered for purposes of the bet. Unless the bet was who will be more useful in a standard 5x5 league.

I think that's exactly what it was, though.

Edit:
With the Jays losing like 12 of their last 15, they've fallen into a tie with the A's (41-42). And with the teams' schedules in the 2nd half, I'm starting to not like my chances with Aussie's bet. :-°


Yep, that's what the bet was. Wins matter.
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Re: The Other Ricky

Postby AussieDodger » Mon Jul 05, 2010 11:36 pm

mweir145 wrote:With the Jays losing like 12 of their last 15, they've fallen into a tie with the A's (41-42). And with the teams' schedules in the 2nd half, I'm starting to not like my chances with Aussie's bet. :-°


The old schedule excuse :-b
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Re: The Other Ricky

Postby mweir145 » Mon Jul 05, 2010 11:54 pm

AussieDodger wrote:
mweir145 wrote:With the Jays losing like 12 of their last 15, they've fallen into a tie with the A's (41-42). And with the teams' schedules in the 2nd half, I'm starting to not like my chances with Aussie's bet. :-°


The old schedule excuse :-b

You can't fight reality.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos
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Re: The Other Ricky

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Jul 06, 2010 12:03 am

mweir145 wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:
mweir145 wrote:With the Jays losing like 12 of their last 15, they've fallen into a tie with the A's (41-42). And with the teams' schedules in the 2nd half, I'm starting to not like my chances with Aussie's bet. :-°


The old schedule excuse :-b

You can't fight reality.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos


Oh man imagine if you were 41-42 in the AL West, you'd still be in the running. ;-7 ;-7
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Re: The Other Ricky

Postby mweir145 » Tue Jul 06, 2010 12:57 am

AussieDodger wrote:Oh man imagine if you were 41-42 in the AL West, you'd still be in the running. ;-7 ;-7

I didn't say anything about being in the running. I said something about the remaining schedule (30+ games against the three best teams in baseball) reducing my chances of winning the bet now that the teams are tied halfway through the season.
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Re: The Other Ricky

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Jul 06, 2010 2:00 am

mweir145 wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:Oh man imagine if you were 41-42 in the AL West, you'd still be in the running. ;-7 ;-7

I didn't say anything about being in the running. I said something about the remaining schedule (30+ games against the three best teams in baseball) reducing my chances of winning the bet now that the teams are tied halfway through the season.


Oakland games left vs "difficult" teams

NYY: 6
TB: 4
BOS: 6
TEX: 13
= 29

Toronto games left vs "difficult" teams

NYY: 12
TB: 9
BOS: 12
TEX: 6
= 39

Oakland vs "easy" teams

SEA: 10
BAL: 0
CLE: 3
KC: 9
= 22

Toronto vs "easy" teams

SEA: 3
BAL: 12
CLE: 3
KC: 3
= 21

Yep 10 more hard ones has you in a bit of trouble here. :-°
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Re: The Other Ricky

Postby mweir145 » Tue Jul 06, 2010 3:26 am

First of all, while Texas is a good team, the Rangers still aren't anywhere near as good as NYY, BOS or TAM. Check BP's 3rd-order standings which adjust for strength of schedule (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... ndings.php) or BtB's rankings (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/7 ... #storyjump).

Second of all, you've just proven my point about the difficulty of the Jays' schedule in the 2nd half. Even 10 games over the final 80 is significant (it's 12.5% of the 2nd half) and enough to hurt my chances of winning. The Jays likely needed to be well over .500 going into the final 3 months to have a chance to beat the A's. And for a while there, I thought they would do it.

Anyway, I don't see why you've made this into an issue of contention here. I wasn't making excuses, I was commenting on the reality of the situation at this point. It's looking less and less good for the 3rd year in a row.
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Re: The Other Ricky

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Jul 06, 2010 3:51 am

mweir145 wrote:First of all, while Texas is a good team, the Rangers still aren't anywhere near as good as NYY, BOS or TAM.


Actual winning%:
NYY .622
BOS .590
TAM .598
TEX .585

These are the current top 4 best teams in the AL.

Off the ESPN page you linked to before: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/expWinPct

Expected winning%:
NYY .622
BOS . 583
TAM .634
TEX .602

*ExW-L and ExWP are derived from Bill James' Pythagorean theorem of baseball: Runs scored [squared] / (Runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared]). This formula was designed to relate a team's runs scored and runs allowed to its won-lost record.


If I was dropping anyone off that list it would be Boston. They are +69 runs for and against, where as Texas are +79. I don't need any third order shenanigans to tell me that.


mweir145 wrote:Second of all, you've just proven my point about the difficulty of the Jays' schedule in the 2nd half. Even 10 games over the final 80 is significant (it's 12.5% of the 2nd half) and enough to hurt my chances of winning. The Jays likely needed to be well over .500 going into the final 3 months to have a chance to beat the A's. And for a while there, I thought they would do it.


Yes we are in agreement that Toronto has a more difficult 2nd half ;-D

mweir145 wrote:Anyway, I don't see why you've made this into an issue of contention here. I wasn't making excuses, I was commenting on the reality of the situation at this point. It's looking less and less good for the 3rd year in a row.


I just like busting your chops if you sound excuse-y :-b :-D
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Re: The Other Ricky

Postby mweir145 » Tue Jul 06, 2010 4:11 am

AussieDodger wrote:If I was dropping anyone off that list it would be Boston. They are +69 runs for and against, where as Texas are +79. I don't need any third order shenanigans to tell me that.

ESPN's EXPWP there doesn't account for strength of schedule like BP's 3rd order standings or BtB's rankings do. Texas has a great run differential, but they've done it against considerably worse opponents than NYY/BOS/TAM have. If we're going to be comparing teams, we should use the most accurate methods possible.


I just like busting your chops if you sound excuse-y :-b :-D

I've noticed, haha. But that was more of a rant of frustration than anything.
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Re: The Other Ricky

Postby mweir145 » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:12 am

After yesterday's CG 2-hitter over NYY for Romero, I remembered this thread:

Since April 14th:

Santana: 131.1 IP, 128 H, 49 ER, 14 HR, 38 BB, 108 K, 3.36 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10-5 record.
Romero: 132 IP, 125 H, 52 ER, 8 HR, 49 BB, 112 K, 3.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8-7 record.

Santana has taken a bit of a lead since Romero got destroyed by NYY and BOS early last month, but it's still close and will go down to the wire.

And the season's xFIP update:
Santana: 4.35
Romero: 3.57

And the update on my bet with Aussie:
Jays: 56-51
A's: 53-53

This one could go right down to the end of the season as well.
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