Alright, so I'll admit right off the bat that I'm mainly a rookie in terms of fantasy baseball, but I went with Justin Duchscherer on a matchup whim April 12th and got better than I could have possibly expected. Now I'm not naive enough to call a pitcher a sleeper because of one solid start (7 1/3 IP, W, 4K, 0 ERA, .55 WHIP), but looking into this guys past stats I can't help but be hopeful and hold onto him instead of picking up the next good FA matchup. Yes he was out for a solid stretch of over a year, but he's back and healthy and did pretty well in spring training. The only year he started and pitched at least 20 innings (2008...2007 he didn't do well as a rookie reliever, 2009 he was out with injury) he posted a 2.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 22 games. Only 95 K's so he won't be massively productive in that arena, but also only 34 walks, which is pretty solid as far as I know. Anyone with better baseball knowledge care to put me in my place? Right now I'm viewing him the way I would a rookie with strong potential, which is how I would classify a sleeper.
I'm weary of him because of 1. health and 2. his 2008 season being such a mirage. His K/9 rate was just barely 6 that year, and the only thing he really had going for him was his excellent BB/9. I think if his ERA is below 4 over a full '10 season, you'll have been pretty lucky.
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AussieDodger wrote:I'm weary of him because of 1. health and 2. his 2008 season being such a mirage. His K/9 rate was just barely 6 that year, and the only thing he really had going for him was his excellent BB/9. I think if his ERA is below 4 over a full '10 season, you'll have been pretty lucky.
This is the big thing. I don't doubt that he can put up solid #s (not ace #s, but solid #3 SP numbers) when healthy, but he is always hurt, and there is no reason to expect differently this season. He's definitely worth owning and plug him in while he's healthy (Except when he faces NYY or powerhouse offenses), but don't expect to get 200 IP out of him.
Which means he has FANTASTIC ballpark for fantasy pitchers
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's