Given the numbers he put up in the AL East, it's frightening to imagine what he is capable of doing now that he's in the NL... What is the likelihood that he posts a sub 2.00 ERA? Sub 1.00 WHIP?
Assuming he remains healthy (please stay healthy Roy), he should log in the neighborhood of 250 to 260 IP. What are reasonable projections? 22 Wins, 220 Ks, 2.10 ERA, 1.05 WHIP? I think those projections are very reachable for Roy - I wouldn't call them conservative, but I also wouldn't say I'm going out on a limb. We're talking about a guy at the top of his game who has consistently put up elite numbers in the least pitcher friendly division in baseball. They say moving from the AL to the NL typically shaves 0.5-1.0 off of a pitcher's ERA - well he didn't just move from the AL, but from the AL East. I think an ERA of 2.45 is his absolute ceiling, with a potential floor around 1.8. I see 1.10 as the ceiling for his WHIP, with a floor of maybe 0.90.
A 24 Win, 230 K, 1.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP season is possible and might just make him the most valuable commodity in fantasy baseball. Sure, it's more likely that he posts a line similar to the one in the second paragraph, but I fully believe Roy is capable of posting the absurd numbers listed above (not that the more 'conservative' numbers aren't absurd, but, yeah, you know what I mean...).
None of this should be surprising to anyone. He's the same pitcher as last year (or the year before), he's just pitching against much easier competition (the National League).
Really, he's been the best pitcher in baseball for the better part of the last decade, and it's about time he got some recognition for it.
thatguy27 wrote:Given the numbers he put up in the AL East, it's frightening to imagine what he is capable of doing now that he's in the NL... What is the likelihood that he posts a sub 2.00 ERA? Sub 1.00 WHIP?
Certainly in the realm of possibility. In fact, if he's the same Roy Halladay as 2008/2009 (and the only major difference seems to be that he's improved his 4th pitch, a changeup), that should be the expectation.