NWilli wrote:I'm not really betting against any "BABIP gods," just mentioning that if he keeps his LD% at 40, his BABIP will stay high. Probably not .500+, but over .400.
However, that's apparently entirely ridiculous... No one seems to think he can maintain an LD% of 40.
Here's the league leading LD% numbers from the last few years: 2009: 26% 2008: 26.6% 2007: 27.2% 2006: 27.5% 2005: 28.2% 2004: 25.2%
So he'd have to be a pretty ridiculous hitter to keep up anywhere near a 40% figure.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
Right. I did not mean for that to come off as sarcastic. When I said apparently, I meant (I'm new to these statistics, and) it was news to me. So I agree that AJax will not continue with his LD% being so high.
NWilli wrote:I'm not really betting against any "BABIP gods," just mentioning that if he keeps his LD% at 40, his BABIP will stay high. Probably not .500+, but over .400.
However, that's apparently entirely ridiculous... No one seems to think he can maintain an LD% of 40.
Here's the league leading LD% numbers from the last few years: 2009: 26% 2008: 26.6% 2007: 27.2% 2006: 27.5% 2005: 28.2% 2004: 25.2%
So he'd have to be a pretty ridiculous hitter to keep up anywhere near a 40% figure.
Any thoughts on his value in keeper leagues? His K's are way down, he's fouling lots of pitches and hitting to the opposite field and looks good in the box from what I've seen of Tigers games.
baseball77 wrote:Any thoughts on his value in keeper leagues? His K's are way down, he's fouling lots of pitches and hitting to the opposite field and looks good in the box from what I've seen of Tigers games.
I've noticed this too. I am really at a loss of words for this guy.....a statistical anomaly if I have ever seen one. He's still going to K, but within the last week it's looked like he woke up one day and took an entirely different approach at the plate. It's honestly borderline bizarre.
Value in keeper leagues? It's still meh as we are only one month into the season, but he's worth keeping an eye on him. I got him in the 20th round of a roto keeper where we keep the player in the round they are drafted, and he will probably get consideration provided he doesn't fall off a cliff.
NWilli wrote:Right. I did not mean for that to come off as sarcastic. When I said apparently, I meant (I'm new to these statistics, and) it was news to me. So I agree that AJax will not continue with his LD% being so high.
Wow, I haven't seen pwnage like that in a while. thedude's post have been close... but NWilli
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
It's pretty easy to calculate his expected BA based on his LD/GB/FB %s and K rate. The thing is, those percentages also regress to normal levels. So as was mentioned earlier his LD% won't stay this high. He doesn't have a long enough history to know what his BABIP will settle at, or his LD% for that matter. I would bet on him piling up quite a few Ks from here on out though, so don't expect much in terms of BA.
It's hard to sell high on a guy where everywhere you look his name is placed in everybody's sell high lists. I'm saying freaking the Yahoo front page did a article on sellinng high on AJAX
J.C.Fighter wrote:It's hard to sell high on a guy where everywhere you look his name is placed in everybody's sell high lists. I'm saying freaking the Yahoo front page did a article on sellinng high on AJAX
This window has been closed for about a week now, where have you been? His average has dropped almost 40 points in the last ten days.
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by Neato Torpedo » Wed May 05, 2010 4:52 pm 
