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Austin Jackson

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Re: Austin Jackson

Postby kab21 » Sat May 01, 2010 9:40 am

dmerl wrote:Looks like he's been doing pretty good without the strikeouts though.. He hasn't strucken out in 4 games now and he's been doing amazing. So if as long as he tries to keep that category low, He should be good.


He hasn't struck out in 4 games and he still has a 32% K rate (K/AB).

.530 BAPIP. 8-o

I would be shocked if he hits >.280 this season. He should be a useful player because of the steals and his good start/defense has cemented his place in the lineup. But I can see a massive slump or two out of him.
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Re: Austin Jackson

Postby NWilli » Sun May 02, 2010 10:00 pm

What do you all think of his value in a keeper league? Worth rostering?
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Re: Austin Jackson

Postby k.k. » Sun May 02, 2010 10:50 pm

NWilli wrote:What do you all think of his value in a keeper league? Worth rostering?

Absolutely. Temper your expectations for him keeping things like his batting avg up all year this season though.
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Re: Austin Jackson

Postby Another Blown Save » Sun May 02, 2010 10:53 pm

kab21 wrote:.530 BABIP. 8-o

If his BABIP falls to .360 (that's what Ichiro's BABIP usually is), he'll hit .250.
If his BABIP falls to league average, he'll hit .210

So sell high folks (unless you are in a keeper league)
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Re: Austin Jackson

Postby dillpickle » Mon May 03, 2010 11:53 am

I have never understood the validity of the BAPIP stat. Just seems to me that comparing this to league averages and other individual players is pointless. Considering the fact that you take strikeouts out of the equation, the comparison of BAPIP between a player who strikes out a lot to a player who doesn't strike out much is a waste of time.

It is like comparing a guy who goes 5 for his first 10 AB's to a guy who goes 40 for his first 100 AB's. A guy who strikes out a lot by the nature of the stat is going to have many few AB's (as used in the calculation) then a guy who doesn't strike out much. As for me, even though a guy goes 5 for 10 and has a .500 average overall, I'd still put a lot more value in the guy who can go 40-100 even though his overall average is lower. The comparison is apples to oranges.

So Ichiro who doesn't strike out at all, has many more at bats as used in the calculation. So his .360 BAPIP is very good. Then you take a guy who strikes out 150 times a year, his at bats are lower and each hit is magnified in the percentage. How can a valid comparison be made?
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Re: Austin Jackson

Postby bigh0rt » Mon May 03, 2010 12:10 pm

dillpickle wrote:I have never understood the validity of the BAPIP stat. Just seems to me that comparing this to league averages and other individual players is pointless. Considering the fact that you take strikeouts out of the equation, the comparison of BAPIP between a player who strikes out a lot to a player who doesn't strike out much is a waste of time.

It is like comparing a guy who goes 5 for his first 10 AB's to a guy who goes 40 for his first 100 AB's. A guy who strikes out a lot by the nature of the stat is going to have many few AB's (as used in the calculation) then a guy who doesn't strike out much. As for me, even though a guy goes 5 for 10 and has a .500 average overall, I'd still put a lot more value in the guy who can go 40-100 even though his overall average is lower. The comparison is apples to oranges.

So Ichiro who doesn't strike out at all, has many more at bats as used in the calculation. So his .360 BAPIP is very good. Then you take a guy who strikes out 150 times a year, his at bats are lower and each hit is magnified in the percentage. How can a valid comparison be made?

It's about regression to the mean, and consistency. That's where the BABIP figure is applicable. If a player has posted a BABIP of .280 for 5 years, and suddenly he's got a .400 BABIP for the first month of a season, chances are it's unsustainable, because he's pretty much shown what he is, and barring minor fluctuations based on new tendencies, progression, etc. the player is who he is. In the case of Austin Jackson, .530 is simply unsustainable no matter who you are, which is really falsely inflating his average. Sooner or later these balls that are finding green grass are going to start being caught, and the regression to the mean (whatever his mean is, since we don't know yet).
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Re: Austin Jackson

Postby NWilli » Mon May 03, 2010 11:01 pm

you know, maybe his BABIP isn't going to decline to .360 (which seemed optimistic).. he is hitting LD% > 39. That's pretty epic
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Re: Austin Jackson

Postby kab21 » Tue May 04, 2010 2:29 am

NWilli wrote:you know, maybe his BABIP isn't going to decline to .360 (which seemed optimistic).. he is hitting LD% > 39. That's pretty epic


You can choose to bet against the BAPIP gods if you want.
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Re: Austin Jackson

Postby NWilli » Tue May 04, 2010 4:35 am

I'm not really betting against any "BABIP gods," just mentioning that if he keeps his LD% at 40, his BABIP will stay high. Probably not .500+, but over .400.

However, that's apparently entirely ridiculous... No one seems to think he can maintain an LD% of 40.

If he can keep his BABIP of .384 from last year though, that is very good. The problem, if I'm correct, is his K%. But that's possibly looking better. In the past 10 days, AJax has 3 walks and 7 strike outs in 47 AB's. That's a K% just under 15.

Can he maintain that K%? Probably not... He was striking out a ton early on. Will it stay at the 30% it's at now? I'm inclined to think it drops, and his average won't be as low as the .250 or .210 numbers (on an earlier post) that realize his BABIP will drop and think his K% won't.

What's my point? I'm not entirely sure. I expect Jackson to regress, I'm just looking at some positives in his statistics also. He could very possibly end with numbers like ZiPS (Update) is projecting .281, 75 R, 50 RBI, 20 SB. He could end up with better numbers too, or obviously he could end up with much worse numbers like some of you predict.

I guess it's easier for me to be optimistic though, because I'm in a keeper league.
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Re: Austin Jackson

Postby baseball77 » Wed May 05, 2010 3:46 pm

He has struck out just three times in his past 38 at bats. If he can keep his K's down, what do you think about his value in keeper leagues?
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