HR contest advice needed

[Neato Torpedo]

Teix over Dunn? Dunn is the surest 40 HR guy I have ever seen.

I am taking the following, LMK what you think.

Howard
Dunn
Miggy (I like Lind but I think Cabreara has a couple more)
Braun

Grandy
Arod

I will flip a coin on Upton and Bruce.


BTW, this contest does not start until April 16, that is when the HR count for me.

The only thing I might change is Miggy -> Cruz. Nelson hit 33 HR last year in 462 AB, while Miggy hit 34 in 611. Cruz plays in a hugely hitter-heavy home field and lineup, and the injury last year that lost him AB was a sprained ankle, which isn't a continually nagging-type injury. I wouldn't blame you for going with Miggy to mitigate the risk factor, but Cruz is definitely someone to consider strongly.

[Captain Furtah]

to win you have to go with safe bets, but you also can't pick the same guys as everyone else. Most in your pool will probably pick Dunn, I think at the minimum Teix comes within a few HRs of Dunn and could easily outdo him (which would give you an advantage). I also think most people will pick Cabrera from group 3, whereas I think Lind could easily hit 40 this year (~5 more than Miggy) and give you a big leg up.

not sure how many people are in it, or there level of research, etc. but if there are a lot of guys in the pool you'll have to hit on 1 or 2 of the not so obvious choices to win it.

side note, who picked the tiers? why would anyone pick Reynolds, Hill, Morales and Branyan (unless it is very very deep and you need some suprises to win it all - and not tie with 8-9 people...)

[kingmike74]

Honestly, a nit wit picked the tiers.

You are right about Lind and Cruz. I will make a decision on who has the least HR and is the coldest over the following days until the 16th, when the contest starts.

I remember last year getting burned becasue I thought the total HR from '09 was the count, and I found out later it started on a certain date.