Ender wrote:Treat fantasy baseball like poker and you'll understand how to win on a regular basis long term and while I love Rickie Weeks he was -EV to start the season.
As a long time and avid poker player, I love the expected value reference. Spot on. But...
jfg wrote:Every other year before this I'd agree with you, but his value was just right on draft day this year. There was very little risk drafting him considering the other options and his ADP was the perfect spot to take a high risk/high reward player. If he went out for the season on day 1 it wouldn't have killed anybody's chances who drafted him.
I think that this post says it perfectly. Because Weeks has such an unhealthy track record, his draft value plummeted this year to a perfect level. I feel he was a low risk, high reward player. I picked him up at 194 (see my post on page 5). You aren't risking much by taking a player in the 20th round. Looking at my league's draft recap, there are few players currently on rosters that were drafted in the last 5 rounds (21-25).
He certainly is a good ways below Cano because of the 50 point difference in batting average, but then again I never expected him to be top 2 anyways. I was hoping to get a top 10 2B to go with Utley (my first rounder).