c - brian mccann 1B - adam dunn 2B - chase utley SS - stephen drew 3B - chris davis OF - carl crawford OF - rajai davis OF - juan rivera util - vladimir guerrero (util only) bench/C - miguel montero bench/1B/OF - garrett jones bench/OF - kyle blanks
SP - felix hernandez, carlos zambrano, matt cain, david price, ricky romero RP - mariano rivera, andrew bailey, carlos marmol, francisco rodriguez, ryan franklin, bobby jenks
i have an offer on the table to get stephen strasburg for francisco rodriguez, straightup. WARNING: it's gonna get tl;dr after this, so like lemme say WHIR and leave a link to yours and i'll give you my thoughts, as it's so much easier to dispense advice when it's not your team, but when it's your team you're like OH NOOOZZZ. so looking at this team, would you give up one of the sure-things in your lot of 6 closers to take a flier on strasburg?
here comes my own analysis thoughts... again, TL;DR FOR LIVE PEOPLES!!@
clearly, my offense is solid and with the usual tinkering/trading/upgrading that goes on during the season, if/when i can cement 3B as a 30/100 type position and if/when i can cement the outfield with a bonafide .300/30/100 candidate, i believe that my offense will be good enough to allow me to ride my pitching staff and make a run at the league. coming out of an autopick draft with 6 -closers tells me that i clearly valued RP/saves a bit too much, seeing as they're akin to steals in fantasy baseball (akin to the stolen base, as SBs more directly impact runs and happen because of success at the plate, a save also, ideally,a good closer will also help with ERA/WHIP/Ks.
so basically, the offer on the table is straightup: i give up k-rod for strasburg. out of all of my 6 closers, ryan franklin is the one i fear losing because he's 37 or 38 years old, and despite a few years of continual improvement under dave duncan, you know he's more injury prone, not to mentiont aht tony larussa has a pretty darn quick hook on closers and they've got a couple'a other guys. marmol and andrew bailey technically haven't had a full season of being THE MAN, but they're both young and their stuff is amazing, and injury or cataclysmic meltdown is the only thing that will derail them.
so like, given my staff, which is the weakest out of all of my 5 leagues, as i'm relying on david price AND ricky romero / another FA-or-someone-i-have-to-trade, i know that i could really use strasburg whe he shows up a-la tommy hanson last year, or mark prior in 2002.
so would you take a chance to nab strasburg here, knowing that you're going to give up a for-sure 30 saves to a guy who has no other closers, or maybe just a john rauch type guy, and still having 5 closers with franklin ebing hte only one who is meh..... or would you try to tinker with the deal and see if he undervalues strasburg or overvalues k-rod?
WHIR, aka will help if you respond. just drop a link to your question..
I need to know if this is a keeper or a redraft. I also need the number of teams.
Assuming 12 teams redraft. I do not do it. If he gets called up how many innings do you think he will pitch? Tommy Hanson pitched 127 innings last year. after being called up in early june, and that is the most you really can expect out of a rookie starting pitcher throwing 95 pitches a game, and Hanson had a lot more pro experience than Strasburgh. Francisco Rodriguez will get you 70 ip for the whole year.
Now that is best case scenario of being called up and pitching effectively. What are the odds of that? 67%, 75% maybe?
Multiple the odds with the best possible outcome and you have the value. So I value Strasburg at 7 wins and 90ip.
Are 7 wins and 90ip worth a 35 save closer? No! so don't do the trade.
"I do not think baseball of today is any better than it was 30 years ago... I still think Radbourne is the greatest of the pitchers." John Sullivan 1914-Old athletes never change.
I think it's a must for you. With your staff right now I think you could use what Strasburg has to offer. Right now is the only time you're going to get him for decent value, in a few weeks there's no way you are able to trade him for K-Rod. You have a lot of closers and can easily give one up. Keeper or not do it