Hunter Pence: 27 year old Power/Speed guy currently being taken around the 9th round. vs. CarGo: Another power/speed potential stud, 24 and a half year old, starting in Coors, everyone's favorite sleeper going in the early 11th on average.
Pence's hot spring as well as his offseason training regimen has raised his stock recently. He also displayed much improved plate discipline last season, which coincided with a spike in batting average. Carlos has also had a very solid spring, and he has a secure job as well as the support of management, who view him as a major part of the future of the franchise. Pence looks to have better power numbers, while Carlos will surely run more if he can get on base. Normally I'd expect most people to select Pence, based on experience and major league production. However, I've seen Carlos go before Pence in many of my drafts, which is what inspired me to create this poll.
I touted CarGo pretty hard last season, and I like him as much as the next guy. However, he needs to cut down on strikeouts this season in order to get on base more. For that reason, and the fact that I'm expecting some bumps in the road for CarGo this season, I'm going to take the more boring and obvious option, Pence.
But all of you who are jumping on Carlos early, do you expect him to outperform Hunter Pence? For the sake of argument, assume this is a typical 12 team 5x5 mixed Roto redraft league.
I love both of them. Both have improved their strike zone judgment, and seem to be learning as they go.
The problem with Pence is that he smashes everything into the ground, he's had two consecutive seasons of 50+% GBs. If he could re-jigger his swing to elevate a bit more he could be a serious power force. Also, he gets caught stealing too much.
I'm voting for CarGon, because if management somehow develop a brain in Houston they'll stop Pence running, and he's not quite as sexy without the steals.
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Fade2White12 wrote:It's Pence, and for me it isn't very close.
IMO CarGo's realistic ceiling this year is almost what is expected out of Pence. Minus the fact that CarGo could steal 30+ while Pence will steal closer to 20.
Fade2White12 wrote:It's Pence, and for me it isn't very close.
IMO CarGo's realistic ceiling this year is almost what is expected out of Pence. Minus the fact that CarGo could steal 30+ while Pence will steal closer to 20.
CarGo's ceiling = what is expected of Pence, yet CarGo is a better bet for this year?
CarGo has PT questions with the crowded Rockies OF and has considerable BA downside considering how much he Ks, his contact rate, how high his BABIP was last year, and his poor home/away splits. Yes, he'll steal more bases, but he has a much higher likelihood of disappointing. Considering all the questions, I'd take Pence every single time in a redraft league.
Fade2White12 wrote:It's Pence, and for me it isn't very close.
IMO CarGo's realistic ceiling this year is almost what is expected out of Pence. Minus the fact that CarGo could steal 30+ while Pence will steal closer to 20.
CarGo's ceiling = what is expected of Pence, yet CarGo is a better bet for this year?
CarGo has PT questions with the crowded Rockies OF and has considerable BA downside considering how much he Ks, his contact rate, how high his BABIP was last year, and his poor home/away splits. Yes, he'll steal more bases, but he has a much higher likelihood of disappointing. Considering all the questions, I'd take Pence every single time in a redraft league.
Sorry if I didn't make it clear, but I agree with Pence, I voted Pence here.
j24jags wrote:IMO CarGo's realistic ceiling this year is almost what is expected out of Pence. Minus the fact that CarGo could steal 30+ while Pence will steal closer to 20.
CarGo's ceiling = what is expected of Pence, yet CarGo is a better bet for this year?
CarGo has PT questions with the crowded Rockies OF and has considerable BA downside considering how much he Ks, his contact rate, how high his BABIP was last year, and his poor home/away splits. Yes, he'll steal more bases, but he has a much higher likelihood of disappointing. Considering all the questions, I'd take Pence every single time in a redraft league.
Sorry if I didn't make it clear, but I agree with Pence, I voted Pence here.
Each of your statements somewhat contradicted each other, so I just assumed you were going with the latter. My bad.
Fade2White12 wrote: CarGo's ceiling = what is expected of Pence, yet CarGo is a better bet for this year?
CarGo has PT questions with the crowded Rockies OF and has considerable BA downside considering how much he Ks, his contact rate, how high his BABIP was last year, and his poor home/away splits. Yes, he'll steal more bases, but he has a much higher likelihood of disappointing. Considering all the questions, I'd take Pence every single time in a redraft league.
Sorry if I didn't make it clear, but I agree with Pence, I voted Pence here.
Each of your statements somewhat contradicted each other, so I just assumed you were going with the latter. My bad.
What I meant to say was that in four of five categories Pence is almost certain to outproduce CarGo. CarGo's ceiling in Rs/RBIs/HRs/BA is fairly close to what is expected of Pence. So if CarGo reaches his ceiling he will be comparable to Pence in four cats and beat him in SBs. If CarGo does not reach his ceiling Pence will probably outproduce him in four of five categories, and CarGo's extra 12ish SBs will not be enough to make him more valuable than Pence.
So we know what Pence is capable of.....and we aren't sure what CarGo can do. CarGo is going two rounds later, hits at the top of a better lineup and seems to be building off of an excellent 2nd half/playoffs last year. I'll take Gonzalez two rounds later.
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by West » Sat Apr 03, 2010 9:24 am 
