This is a "head to head" league where we play one person for a week, take the win/loss and then move on to another opponent the next week. Anyway, we start 9 pitchers, doesnt matter if they are SP's or RP's and the scoring for pitching is as follows:
looking over '09 stats as well as '10 projected stats, using this scoring system... good SP's score 500-700pts in a season and good RP's score 300-400 in a total season. I drafted 7 SP's and 2RP's however there are starters still available that post a good 150-200 total pts in a season than the 2 RP's I currently have. Should I just bag the RP's and fill up on SP's?
On the surface, this seems like an easy question to answer. You have to remember though, that some weeks, SP's start once, and some weeks they start twice. I am writing this post with a hypothesis, but no mathematical proof on which strategy is best. Let's do the actual work and see what the answer is.
If I am not mistaken, there are 25 weeks in the MLB season. SP's that remain healthy get an average of 32.4 starts per season (assuming a constant 5-man rotation).
I am going to assume that you have average relievers on your team, and that they fall in the middle of the 300-400 point range that you stated. So 350. I am also going to assume that the SP's on the waiver wire are at the bottom of the range that you gave for SP, so 500.
Using these numbers, we learn that a 500 point SP that makes 32.4 starts in a season will earn you about 15.4 points per start. We also learn that a 350 point RP will earn you 14 points per week. So pretty much any time a 500 point SP starts twice in a week, he will be the clear choice over a 350 point RP. Even in weeks when the 500 point SP only starts once, MOST of the time he will be a better bet than the 350 point RP.
I think that the SP's are the best option from the information given. Exactly how I would handle things going forward if I were you depends heavily on your roster, whether you have Daily or Weekly lineup changes, and how many bench spots you have in your league.
I like going in-depth on strategy discussions. If you can answer the following questions, I would be happy to explore this strategy decision more.
1. Post your ENTIRE roster (all hitters, bench players, and pitchers), along with the positions they are eligible at, and just as a point of reference, the 2010 projected points (by your league's website service) using your league's scoring system for ALL players.
2. Whether you have daily or weekly lineup changes.
3. The top 2-3 options on the waiver wire for each position, along with their projected points.
yes, thats pretty much the math I was getting from everything as well. I currently have 2 RP's just to be able to plug in if needed. If needed meaning on a mediocre SP's 1 start week or possibly just hanging on to them for the first few weeks of the season to see how the scoring plays out and make sure Im not missing something. Here's my roster and 2010 projected pts are in BOLD.
C Joe Mauer, Min C, DH 701 1B Joey Votto, Cin 1B 667 2B Ben Zobrist, TB 2B, OF 632 3B Gordon Beckham, CWS 3B 639 SS Alexei Ramirez, CWS SS 571 OF Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos OF 627 OF Hunter Pence, Hou OF 614 OF Chris Coghlan, Fla OF 585 UTIL Placido Polanco, Phi 2B 624 UTIL Todd Helton, Col 1B 601 Bench Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B DTD 655 Bench Carlos Lee, Hou OF DTD 660 Bench Denard Span, Min OF 582 DL -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- P Dan Haren, Ari SP 570 P Josh Beckett, Bos SP 534 P Francisco Rodriguez, NYM RP 343 P Ubaldo Jimenez, Col SP 485 P Scott Baker, Min SP 470 P Brett Anderson, Oak SP 441 P Jorge De La Rosa, Col SP 429 P Frank Francisco, Tex RP 287 P Gavin Floyd, CWS SP 401
(*) The lineup changes are dailey.
(*) Available SP's: Phil Hughs: 411pts, Andy Pettitte: 374pts, Brian Matusz: 356pts, Joel Pineiro: 352pts
Ive been waiting for Kinsler to go on the DL so I could pick up Hughs and not have to drop anyone. Would like to have him on my roster before the season starts. I hadn't noticed until today that the lineup changes were dailey, maybe having a few closer to throw in for non starters isnt a bad idea.
Well, unless you have a limit on innings pitched, or games started per week (you should if you have decent rules), your rules make it senseless to carry hitters on your bench. I think you are right by DL'ing Kinsler and picking up a pitcher.
I think you should also try to trade an outfielder for a closer, and depending on the free agent hitting pool, maybe deal two guys. You have good position flexibility with Zobrist, Polly, Beckham, and two UTIL spots. If you could deal two of Lee/Coghlan/Span/Pence/Ellsbury for a couple of closers, your team would earn quite a few more points over the season. Even if you have to give two of those guys to get one closer and then you pick up a setup guy off the wire, you will earn more points.
Right now, those extra two OF's on your bench serve mainly as injury insurance if one of your starters gets hurt. Those bench spots are much more valuable to your team if they hold relievers with daily lineups. Just taking the projected points at face value here, I am going to use this as your hitting lineup:
C Joe Mauer, Min C, DH 701 1B Joey Votto, Cin 1B 667 2B Ben Zobrist, TB 2B, OF 632 3B Gordon Beckham, CWS 3B 639 SS Alexei Ramirez, CWS SS 571 OF Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos OF 627 OF Hunter Pence, Hou OF 614 OF Carlos Lee, Hou OF DTD 660 UTIL Placido Polanco, Phi 2B 624 UTIL Todd Helton, Col 1B 601 Bench Chris Coghlan, Fla OF 585 Bench Denard Span, Min OF 582 DL Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B DTD 655
The average of your OF and UTIL guys that Coghlan and Span could serve as a safety net for is 625.2, or roughly 25 points per week. Assuming an average of 2 weeks missed per guy (which is a high assumption), you would miss out on 250 points from injuries to those guys. Meaning that if you can get two relievers that contribute 140 points apiece to replace those bench OF's you are carrying, you are going to earn more points as a team. This is without even considering that if one of your OF/UTIL guys were to get hurt, you will be able to gain points back easily enough by filling the injured guy's spot from the waiver wire.
This is all contingent on any sort of pitching limits you might see each week. If you have a games started or innings pitched limit, post it here and we can put that into the equation.
If there is no pitching limit of any sort, then carrying bench hitters should only be done with the express purpose of trading that player within the next few days. Bench hitters do not contribute enough in your setup to help your team win. It doesnt matter who the hitter is, if he cant crack your starting lineup, he is not worth his roster spot to your team.
Now, back to the original question regarding SP vs RP. If you have pitching limits, they will affect your optimal makeup of SP vs RP. If you don't, it all depends on how many points you can expect them to earn. His roster spot might be better used to pick up a 2-start SP every week and drop him for another 2-start guy the next week. Even a guy like Nate Robertson or a similar waiver wire player will be more valuable on an average 2-start week than a guy like Francisco.
So the next two things we need to consider to figure out the optimum strategy are weekly pitching limits, and whatever transaction limits that might exist.
Should I petition the Cafe to let me write a strategy column? I wrote before, but was tasked to write about weekly sleepers which I am not super passionate about and I didn't stick with it for too long.
yes, make the petition for a strategy collum I wasn't expecting nearly this sort of feedback and I really appreciate it.
Looking over the rules there are no limitations at all (min or max) on IP's or AB's or waivers or anything. The only limit what so ever is a max of 10 aquisitions during each matchup (1 week), so subbing in RP's throughout a matchup shouldnt be a problem. As of now I still cant put Kinsler on the DL because MLB hasn't changed his status to DL yet :( I'm going to try and peddal my other OF's for a few RP if that doesnt work then I might have to just drop them. Maybe after a few days to a week into the season I'll get a better feel for which guys to be able to drop. THanks again
If there truly are no restrictions on transactions other than 10 per week, or innings pitched, or games started, there are two things you can do.
1. Strategy #1 is to "churn" with one or two of your roster spots. First, a disclaimer. Some people will certainly complain if you use this strategy. My thought is that if the rules do not prevent it, then it is a legitimate strategy that you can and SHOULD use to win. But others frown on churning. At best, if you churn you are in a bit of a fantasy moral grey area. To churn, basically you pick a starting pitcher up from the waiver wire on the morning of his probable start, insert him into your lineup, and as soon as he makes his start, drop him in favor of a SP that will be pitching the next day. Do this each day, and use mediocre pitchers to rack up points. Plan on using all of your transactions each week to churn your worst couple of SP off the roster for guys that can get you points each day. Keep a transaction in reserve each week to use if a position player gets hurt, but if you are injury-free at the end of the week, use those transactions to get probable starters in your lineup on the last day of the week.
2. The other way to do it is to make your transactions before the week starts, and try to maximize the number of 2-start pitchers you have on your roster to start the week. I think that this would get rid of the touch of moral grey because you are at least not churning every day.
Either way, I dont think that RP have much of a place in this league. I would deal my bench hitters, and all of my RP for SP. They look to be the best source of points. If you follow strategy #1 above, someone in your league will complain, that is almost guaranteed. However, my personal belief is that if the rules allow it, part of your job as an owner is to utilize the proper strategy to win the game within the rules. People that complain about this are going to be the people that are too lazy or unintelligent to realize and utilize the optimum strategy to win.
my only fear with strat #1 is if I'm not the only manager using the strat, if not then there may be times that I have nobody of any value to pick up for the given day/week. I was thinking about using all of my bench spots for extra pitchers, as mentioned. We start 9 total and I currently have 7 SP's, With the bench spots I could hold 12 pitchers. I was kicking around the idea of using the last 5 spots for RP's and plugging them in each day for the SP's that weren't starting. I may churn a few of the SP's and make it cloer to 9SP's and 3RP's but I only want to churn the SP's that I wouldnt be afraid of losing to someone else. But I think I might hold on to a few of the RP's just to plug in where needed. Having 12 pitchers on my roster seems to be a no brainer. Kinsler was finaly placed on the DL so that free'd up an extra spot for me