That's quite a projection. Do you expect that running to continue? This is a guy that stole all of 8 bases in 722 AAA PAs...28 is quite a few SBs. The 22 HRs seem a little iffy too, particularly playing 81 games in Petco, though he did show a bit of a spike there last year. Also, how is the playing time between he, Gwynn, and Hairston going to lay out...will Venable be full time?
If that projection pans out for you, he'll jump up over a large number of well-regarded OFers. More power to you if he pulls it off.
22 HR is definitely reachable. 28 SB, however, absolutely not. I pegged him for 20/10 in my Padres article last month, and if the Padres actually do decide to run, I'd raise that to 20/15. The biggest question is PT. Venable is the best non-Blanks OF they currently have, but Bud Black could decide to be a douche and sit him for one of Hairston/Cunningham/Gwynn.
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the fact that he never ran in the minors doesnt mean he cant, the old regimes philosophy was never to run, (Sandy Alderson), but this year, Dave Roberts has worked with all the Padres on leads and jumps, stealing and taking the extra base, and he has turned that into 8/9 in the spring. I expect him to push for 30 SB's honestly, the 22 HR's is a little under what he could do not in Petco, they actually see he has similar raw power to Adrian. Looking at Venable's history, just keep in mind he didnt even get into baseball until his junior year in college, so he is a Torii Hunter type late bloomer.
as to playing time, I think he is the Padres 2nd best player right now, although Blanks or Headley could step up as well, shown by 2nd half and carried over into spring training. Venable will be playing full time vs righties, and unless they use both Hairstons in the OF on a day, he will get his AB's vs lefties. He is not in a platoon, and Cunningham was already optioned to AAA. Hes basically fighting for AB's vs lefties against Gwynn, as one of them will sit when Hairston plays. Venable brings more to the plate then Gwynn, so I stand by my projections. Am I saying take him early in the 15th even, no, but as a 20-25th round/FA pickup you will get TREMENDOUS value.
I can't knock the pick at all because, as you said, you're taking him in the last round. Not much to lose there but there are some red flags on some of your projections.
Venable's Hit% the past three years has been under 30% and his contact rate is on a 3-year slide. Hitting .280 with numbers like that won't be easy to do.. at all. I think he'll end up being a big time drain in BA. That said, stealing nearly 30 bases with very average speed doesn't seem so likely either.
With enough at bats 20-80-80 is feasible though.
If I had to project him out to 500 ABs I'd put him around .250-70-17-60-10
Then again I'm the same wacko that called on Nyjer Morgan for a bust season so maybe my opinion isn't worth much
Good luck with him though. I have a friend in SD who seems to like him as well.
stealing bases isnt as much about speed, as getting reads and jumps, Bagwell and Chipper stole a bunch of bases early in their careers as well, the game is shifting back to running imo. I think Venable is at least faster then both of those guys also
Only 22 people stole 26 or more bases last year in the majors. Expecting a rookie on one of the worst offensive teams in baseball to be on enough and have the green light to swipe that many is asking way too much. In order for the Padres to win games this year, they need to be not making mistkaes on the base paths. Trusting in Venable to do that seems a little risky to me. I'd say about 5 SB's on the low end and about 12 or 13 on the high end.
With any projection over 15 SB, you have to be assuming that he will not only make his way into the OF, but that he'll also make his way into the leadoff spot... correct?
I don't have any problem with assuming he could beat out the Hairstons and/or Gwynn for an everyday job, but I don't see him getting enough playing time to beat out both Gwynn and Everth and weasel his way into the everyday leadoff spot.
If he's getting 500 PAs this year (which is a question in itself), and 90% of them are going to be in the bottom-half of the lineup, I don't see how he could have even 30 opportunities to steal a base, let alone actually get sent and make it.