The Artful Dodger wrote:Ellsbury also gives you 100-110 runs and a pretty solid average (.290, .300+ if he turns those flyballs into line drives). Runs tend to be the one category that goes underrated but can be a mountain to climb after the first few months if you fall behind. There's the extra value in Ellsbury. BTW, Roberts' SB total has declined the last few years and while I think he steals 30-35 bags, he is a bit of a risk for being sunken value, more so than Ellsbury.
Runs are a wash because Ethier will give you 100 as well. Ellsbury is a bit better in average, but only by 20 points (290-300 versus 270-280). So the difference isn't much.
I agree on Roberts and I have avoided him in all drafts as I don't think he will contribute much. Actually, see if the guy you are trading with doesn't think so. If you can get Ethier for Roberts, I would take it personally. I don't think Roberts will be helpful.
The Artful Dodger wrote:As for the trade, I don't think it's the best value. I still like Votto over Youkilis only because he gives a little more HR and BA upside. I believe your team could use some power and it's not a bad idea to deal one of your 2B, SS, and/or one of your outfielders for a big bat or two. Ellsbury isn't a bad chip to be using in deals because he's your most valuable OF, but you might not be maximizing the best value out of him in settling for Ethier. Try making a run at say, Holliday, Justin Upton, maybe even Braun or Kemp with Ellsbury as a key part of the trade. The other thing is, if you're dealing Ellsbury in a roto, you are letting go of a big part of your SB cushion.
I agree with the rest of your post (although I think even if Ellsbury is in a package you don't get any of the guys you named), I always have to repeat, in roto leagues you don't get points for winning a category by 50. You get points for winning the category by 1. You don't need a big cushion. Furthermore, there are plenty of speedsters out there if you want steals. Basically any shortstop will do and if Jennings is called up in Tampa, there you go. Maybe I undervalue the steals, but it seems this year, you can get them fairly easily.
The Artful Dodger wrote:Ellsbury also gives you 100-110 runs and a pretty solid average (.290, .300+ if he turns those flyballs into line drives). Runs tend to be the one category that goes underrated but can be a mountain to climb after the first few months if you fall behind. There's the extra value in Ellsbury. BTW, Roberts' SB total has declined the last few years and while I think he steals 30-35 bags, he is a bit of a risk for being sunken value, more so than Ellsbury.
Runs are a wash because Ethier will give you 100 as well. Ellsbury is a bit better in average, but only by 20 points (290-300 versus 270-280). So the difference isn't much.
Ethier isn't a lock to finish with 100 runs, IMO, especially if Manny needs the days off. FWIW, Kemp is hitting ahead of Ethier, which will bump up his RBI total perhaps, but I don't see him having 110-120 run potential like Ellsbury does.
Also, Ethier has shown a trend for not hitting well against lefties. I think he can bounce back to .280, .285 perhaps, but 20 points is a big difference that tends to add up in a way in roto as well.
The Artful Dodger wrote:Furthermore, there are plenty of speedsters out there if you want steals. Basically any shortstop will do and if Jennings is called up in Tampa, there you go. Maybe I undervalue the steals, but it seems this year, you can get them fairly easily.
Yes, you can get cheap speed, but each of the cheap speedsters carry some risk too. For example, Fowler, Stubbs, and Rajai Davis carry some risk of losing PT and the likes of Michael Bourn benefited from a high BABIP (average likely to go down) and say, Everth Cabrera will give you plenty of speed, but will hurt your BA too. I think Morgan and Borbon are the closest things to Ellsbury substitutes than the others are, but relatively speaking, that's in terms of upside.
Also, Jennings won't get called up unless the Rays are hit hard by a couple of injuries.
The Artful Dodger wrote: Ethier isn't a lock to finish with 100 runs, IMO, especially if Manny needs the days off. FWIW, Kemp is hitting ahead of Ethier, which will bump up his RBI total perhaps, but I don't see him having 110-120 run potential like Ellsbury does.
Also, Ethier has shown a trend for not hitting well against lefties. I think he can bounce back to .280, .285 perhaps, but 20 points is a big difference that tends to add up in a way in roto as well.
Fair enough. For me, the question mark regarding Ethier is where they will place him in the order. Last year, he batted at least one game at every batting position 2 through 9. I suspect he will get jerked around again this year. Thus, the batting behind Kemp may not last. However, the fact that he is placed all over the lineup could be a thing that scares you off because you don't know what he will do (i.e., where his strengths will be). And yes, his BA is 50 points lower against lefties.
The Artful Dodger wrote:Yes, you can get cheap speed, but each of the cheap speedsters carry some risk too. For example, Fowler, Stubbs, and Rajai Davis carry some risk of losing PT and the likes of Michael Bourn benefited from a high BABIP (average likely to go down) and say, Everth Cabrera will give you plenty of speed, but will hurt your BA too. I think Morgan and Borbon are the closest things to Ellsbury substitutes than the others are, but relatively speaking, that's in terms of upside.
Also, Jennings won't get called up unless the Rays are hit hard by a couple of injuries.
Stubbs will play full time and be good; same with Davis. Agree on the rest though. Personally I think that Borbon will have some difficulties, but that is just me.
Jennings will get called up simply because they have nothing stopping him. Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler are not roadblocks. Plus if Crawford is traded (as the rumors go), then that increases the likelihood. However, I don't think Crawford will be traded. Nevertheless, Upton, Crawford and Jennings in your outfield is amazing!
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by AtlantisBubba » Thu Apr 01, 2010 2:02 pm 
