12 team 5x5 H2H league. So here's the trade as proposed
Joey Votto Carlos Beltran Brett Anderson
Felix Hernandez Jason Bartlett Magglio Ordonez
It feels like a no-brainer to me, especially since I also have Jose Reyes as well as Ian Desmond stashed. But I also have Miguel Cabrera for 1B so Votto isn't a must have or anything. Still, Beltran would be a solid stash, more useful for my roster at this point than Bartlett (Reyes looked like more of a risk on draft day) and with Anderson I'm fairly confident my pitching staff would hold up. Here's my roster as is:
C - Geovany Soto 1B - Miguel Cabrera 2B - Ian Stewart (3B) 3B - David Wright SS - Jose Reyes OF - Curtis Granderson OF - Andrew McCutchen OF - Carlos Gonzalez Util - Alex Rios (OF) Util - Juan Rivera (OF) BN - Jason Bartlett (SS) BN - Magglio Ordonez (OF) BN - Nick Johnson (1B) BN - Ian Desmond (2B, SS)
SP - Felix Hernandez SP - Ubaldo Jimenez RP - Chad Qualls RP - Frank Francisco P - Javier Vazquez P - Ricky Nolasco P - Ben Sheets P - Max Scherzer BN - Octavio Dotel
If I accept the trade, which I'm leaning towards, I would also drop Nick Johnson and pick up Matt Latos to offset some of the risk with Sheets and Scherzer. If Latos gets scooped before then, I'd probably go with Homer Bailey. I might even try to grab both once I can stash Beltran on the DL as well, though I would have some options there.
I would also stand pat on this offer. You are not getting the right value in return for King Felix. If you want to deal him you should be looking at where you are weak and strengthing those spots. I would try and dump Alex Rios on someone who still thinks he might be a player.
Try something along these lines
give - Felix/Rios/Stewart
get - stud 2B(Hill, Kinsler, Phillips)/top 2nd tier SP/mid tier OF
If you can do something like that it would greatly improve your team overall IMO
I see what you guys are saying, and I should note a couple things:
1) I'm not actively shopping Felix. These negotiations have been ongoing, he's been trying to swap Felix for Votto and I've been trying to get Beltran for Bartlett with a second piece that provides a little extra value on my side. My previous offer was Ubaldo, Bartlett, and Rivera for Votto, Beltran, and Anderson, and this was his counter that I hinted I would consider.
2) I am actively shopping Bartlett. He's the only guy I feel strongly that I want to move on from. I only drafted him because Reyes was a larger risk on draft day than he is now, and because Bartlett fell into the 12th round. My plan was to back Reyes up with someone more like Alcides Escobar, but I felt Bartlett had fallen enough to grab him and then deal him for a 10thish round value if/when Reyes came back healthy. His 2009 was so BABIP inflated, and Reyes seems so close to returning that I'm trying to act fast on dealing Bartlett, and I felt Beltran would be a good stash in return, especially if I could squeeze a bit more value out of the deal.
3) I do like Beltran quite a bit, at least more than Bartlett in terms of value relative to my roster. Sure he won't be a SB machine, but I don't really need that. 4-5 months of Beltran could be super valuable and there were some promising offensive signs from him last year despite the fact that he was playing hurt. He walked more than he struck out for the first time in his career. Plus he's going to hit behind Reyes and Castillo, two guys with solid to strong OBPs, and ahead of Wright and Bay, who are RBI machines. I could easily see Beltran going .280-15-70-70-5 even if he misses two months, and until then I'd have him stashed on the DL and I'd be getting decent value out of someone else, like Rivera, who would ultimately wind up on the bench.
4) I see no need to shop Ian Stewart, I think he's a solid value at 2B, and with Desmond there to back him up I'm not terribly worried. Its definitely a potential weak point in my offense, but I highly doubt it'll kill me, and I'm not too crazy about the "elite" second baseman. Hill looks like a regression candidate (don't get me wrong, I'll forever love him for what he added to two of my teams as a NDFA last year, helping me to a 2nd and 1st place finish, and I expect he'll be decent, especially in terms of power, but he was over his head), Phillips is solid but unspectacular, and Kinsler always seems overvalued to me as a second rounder. CHONE projects Stewart to go .262-22-75-75-6 in 505 PAs and Kinsler .273-23-96-77-23 in 593 PAs. Plus Kinsler will start the year on the DL with a leg injury, so add a bunch of risk to those counting stat numbers, especially SBs, and Stewart has a minor league history of higher SB totals and figures to get significantly more than 505 PAs this year. I can see him reaching double-digit SBs and Kinsler finishing below 20, and Stewart racking up slightly better number in all the other counting stats than his CHONE projection after adjusting for Playing Time, which would make them much closer in value than the eight round difference in their draft position would indicate. If there was a second baseman in the Hill-Phillips range I'd target it'd probably be Cano, but I'm not at all desperate. As a sleeper, someone I missed out on and regret is Gordon Beckham, who will have 2B eligibility very shortly this year , but ah well.
5) Also don't feel a need to shop Rios. I got him in the 14th round and I think he's a solid bounceback candidate for that position. His BABIP last year was .273, down from a career .319 mark. His BB/K and HR/FB were pretty much the same as they've always been though. Pretty much all the projection systems like him for a bounceback too. CHONE has him at .270-18-75-80-20, and none of the others are too different from that. Platooning him with Rivera when/if I need a better power matchup as opposed to speed seems like a great way to spend a lineup spot. If anything, I'd rather wait and see if Rios gets off to a hot start and consider selling high to someone buying into the bounceback hype.
6) How's this for a silly counter offer I'm considering (which I'm expecting will get rejected just because its too crazy, and I probably won't do since it might just end the negotiations):
Felix Hernandez Jason Bartlett Juan Rivera Geovany Soto
Victor Martinez Carlos Beltran Brett Anderson Chris Davis
Instead of doing that, I'll probably just reject the offer and drop Magglio for Latos anyway if I don't accept the offer. Thanks for the advice guys, I'm definitely second guessing my initial instinct towards accepting it.
I think you do the first trade. Bartlett and Magglio do nothing for your team. All 3 of the guys you get back will help you.
I know you said you're high on Beltran, but it merits repeating: he was MORE injured last year than this year and he still hit over .310 with decent power and steals. When he gets back on the field, he will hit. He's a great player.
What makes it a lock is that you can get Latos and/or Bailey for free. Anderson isn't going to approach F-Her numbers, but he'll be a good SP3 and you already have a few good SP at the top. SP depth is good, and Ubaldo, Vazquez and Nolasco are all solid 2nd tier SP, with Scherzer and Anderson filling in as 3rd tier guys and Latos/Bailey and Sheets are good upside picks. You'll survive without the King.
Here is why I think you make this trade. King Felix is a stud, but you are packaging him with two guys who you won't even play.
Ordonez is on your bench and so is Bartlett. They arent contributers.
Plus like you, I am high on Beltran.
Now I do think that the trade doesnt make perfect sense from standpoints of what your weaknesses are but I think it makes sense from the standpoint that you are trading guys that won't be starting on your team anyway.
Exactly my initial thinking KimbosBeard and OctaShields. So here's the real question. Magglio obviously doesn't really have trade value by himself. Bartlett does. Could I get a better deal by shopping Bartlett around? I think that's the risk here more than anything. Having Votto, Miggy, and Wright with a slew of speedy outfielders should make my lineup pretty beastly. Add in some draft position upside from Reyes and Soto and it could be dominant. I would lack a true SP1 without Felix, but I have three good SP2s, Nolasco in particular with potential for more, and a bunch of good SP3s and breakout candidates at the back end. I think I would hold my own well in the pitching cats and dominate offense week to week and wind up with great chances to be playoff bound.