#4 pick in keeper draft strategy...help!

[RJHNY1]

Hey guys, you can see my team in my sig (Justin Upton will be called to the major league roster after the draft). I have the #4 pick for this Sunday's draft, in addition to the #9 and #12. So I have a chance to make a big impact by snagging 3 players in the first 12 picks.

Best available position players: Sandoval, Youkilis, Werth, Bay, Carlos Lee, Curtis Granderson

Best available SP: Greinke, Haren, Wainwright, Verlander, Carpenter, Josh Johnson, Nolasco, Cain, Hamels,

My thought process is to take Sandoval or Youkilis with the #4 pick b/c of the massive drop off in 1B after those two guys are gone. I have to fill out 1B and CI. If I don't take Sandoval or Youkilis, then 1B and CI could be very ugly.

Here are 2 scenarios, please give me your opinions/advice regarding both scenarios.

Scenario 1
Greinke, Youkilis, and Sandoval are taken 1-2-3. I'm up at #4. Who is the best player to take? I'm not touching Carpenter. Haren scares me b/c he's not a 2nd half pitcher. Verlander scares me because of his horrible 2008 and the fact he pitched a lot of innings and high pitch counts in 2009. I like Wainwright, but can I justify taking him at #4 over Haren and Verlander?

Scenario 2
Greinke and either Youkilis/Sandoval are available to me at #3. Do I go for the pitcher or the bat? I am really struggling with this scenario. Greinke is a top 5 pitcher. But Youkilis is a really good player and Sandoval is a rising star who could be a keeper for 2011 (or a guy I can trade for draft picks after the 2010 season). My thinking is that I get the 1B here and I can still nab 2 high quality starters with 9/12 (say Josh Johnson and Cole Hamels)

[Markus09]

It looks to me you need to go Pitching. Id say Verlander or Grienke if still available.

[RJHNY1]

Right, but if I have to choose between Sandoval and Greinke, do I get the scarce 1B first and then go with pitching with 9 and 12? Or do I forgo the 1B and get Greinke and then be stuck with options like Derrek Lee, Brett Butler, Lance Berkman, etc to fill 1B and CI?

[SLBarnes]

Right, but if I have to choose between Sandoval and Greinke, do I get the scarce 1B first and then go with pitching with 9 and 12? Or do I forgo the 1B and get Greinke and then be stuck with options like Derrek Lee, Brett Butler, Lance Berkman, etc to fill 1B and CI?

I agree, your hitting is great i'd go with some arms. I'd get one solid SP in Greinke (if he falls to you, he is going 1st overall in my 4th year keeper draft this sunday). Who is left at 1B? Billy Butler is going unnoticed in a lot of drafts i am finding. Butler would be a solid option at 1st, with keeper potential.


thanks for the help with mine,

[RJHNY1]

It's true Butler is a good option, I like him. But that's 1 guy and it's very unlikely I will be able to get him. I don't know if he lasts to me in another round. That's why I'm afraid of passing up on Sandoval.

I figure if I got Sandoval at 4, I can get two tier-2 aces like a combination of Josh Johnson and Cole Hamels or something like that.

[itzyaboyrd]

I would have to agree with the above posters. You have great bats I would go with Greinke if he fell to you. Now lets assume he doesn't and you grab Sandoval you may be able to trade him for a top tier pitcher.

[RJHNY1]

Yeah. I'm hoping ONE of Greinke or Sandoval falls to me and I'll select the one that fell to me. It would make it easier on me.

But if BOTH fall to me, that's where I'm not sure. I feel I can get good pitchers...not a Tier 1 pitcher or a top ace, but I can get two Tier 2 pitchers with 9/12. But Greinke was so phenomenal last year that it's hard to pass him up.

[oldmanbean]

Do you know the other owner's needs?? That might help predict who will fall to you.

Regardless, if Greinke is there, take him.

If not, then go with whichever of Sandoval, Youkilis or Werth don't get picked, and if more than one, in that order.


Thanks for the help on mine!

[RJHNY1]

Here's the potential needs of the other guys.

#1 I believe is taking Granderson. He has a HUGE mancrush on Granderson and has kept him for years. Just before the keeper deadline on Sunday, he inexplicably traded his 1st (#7 overall), 3rd, and 10th rounder for the #1 overall pick and 11th rounder. This was BEFORE he knew who the keepers were and who would be available, leading me to believe he wants to get Granderson back.

#2/8 owned Youkilis last year, so I could see him taking him back and hoping for Wainwright at #8. He LOVES Adam Wainwright. He took him last year and he got him in another league that I'm in with him (yahoo auction league for fun). I am positive he will take Wainwright, if he's there, at #8. He also told a guy who doesn't have a 1st round pick "you know who I'm taking" (in regards to the #2 pick) and told him he is going a bat and arm with #2 and #8. This is probably referring to Youkilis.

I can't imagine #3 takes Youkilis or Sandoval when he has 1B and 3B already filled. He had Verlander last year, so I can see him grabbing Verlander back.

I can't imagine #5 taking a SP given he has 3 aces (Beckett, Lee, CC) he's keeping and needs bats.

I don't know what #6 will do. He can go in a lot of different ways (keepers are Braun, Rollins, Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Cano). He's a Mets fan and is not a fan of keeping pitchers, so I could see him go Jason Bay here.

I don't know what #7 (Hamilton, BJ Upton, Lincecum, McCann, Aaron Hill) will do, he is a HUGE Yankee fan, so I can see him going Jeter. He has Lincecum as a keeper and Kershaw in his minors, so it's conceivable he goes offense since Upton, Hamilton, and Hill are major question marks.

#8 (see above when I discuss #2)

#9 me

[sigriffey]

I think Greinke is an awesomely consistent Ace to anchor your staff, especially insofar as he starts hot, sustains decent production, and finishes hot (when you need it most). Couple that with the hope that KC starts to score some more runs and I think he's a just-short-of-no-brainer choice. I do think if he is gone you should go ahead and take Wainwright because he is as steady as they come. HOWEVER, if both are gone, go Kung Foo Panda for the reasons you listed, and then target Josh Johnson.

Maybe I am in the minority, and maybe it's because he got lit up for 7 runs by the Yankees WITHOUT A-Rod, Jeter, Posada or Cano, but I just think Hamels is a headcase and not worth such an early pick. I would much rather take a great bat over him there. But I do agree, in general, that you want to grab two aces before long, so Greinke or Wainwright and then look later for a Gallardo or Lester (ok, obviously they won't last long).

recapping: You have a nice offense there, so grab Greinke if you can ... honestly, I would not blame you for taking Sandoval over Waino if you can but otherwise go for some Aces early.