PICK YOUR POISON * UPDATED * * ALWAYS REPLY *

[Seanyfever]

Another manager and I have been discussing a flop of players. It largely includes his Berkman and Bumgarner. While I originally tried to move G. Jones, M. Capps and draft pick for them... He balked. We have discussed Hamilton. I favour Hamilton more so just for upside, but how do you gauge the injury risk of Berkman and Hamilton. My OF and 1st are generally filled and good. I am wanting overall value. It is a 14 team keeper league. Buddies since tee ball so it is pretty competitive too. $$$ involved.

UPDATE:
Counter came back: HIS Berkman & Bumagrner for Blanton and Capps
See my pitching below. I actually like Blanton as a lower end guy, but getting Berkman I think I can flip for better than Blanton. Capps? Not a significant piece to me.

I am interested in how this weighs out. Your feelings?

While you are at it.... What kind of starting pitching can I get for Garret Jones? I need one more SP, and he is the most logical piece I have. He seems like a real mystery to me. Not sure what to expect, and if his value falls, I get no SP.

My current pitching:
14 Team League. Head to Head.
Compete in following 6x6 areas:
OBP H HR RBI R SB
WHIP IP ERA SO W SV

Pitching (Play 8/week)(Usually 6 SP/2 CP)
Santana, Johan (2011)
Peavy, Jake (2012)
Anderson, Brett (2012)
Verlander, Justin (2011)
Slowey, Kevin (2012)
Niemann, Jeff (2012)
Lily, Ted (2012)
Blanton, Joe (2012)

Francisco, Frank (2012)
Madson, Ryan (2012)
Perez, Chris (2012)
Capps, Matt (2012)

[jackie hayes]

Imo, and it's basically just guesswork on the injury stuff -- Berkman has less injury risk (despite being injured now), though Hamilton has more upside. (There was a quote from Hamilton a while ago talking about how his immune system is in bad shape, and will continue to be -- that worries me more than any vague notion of 'fragility'.) It really would depend on the rest of my hitters. If I had a very reliable group, I'd go with the upside play. If a lot of youth, injury worries, Berkman. Overall, I'd lean towards Hamilton.

I'm not a big fan of Bumgarner, incidentally. The velocity drop last year wasn't so much a concern, but the fact that he's still sitting around 90 (usually on the wrong side) after the time off definitely is.

I don't know what to make of Jones -- you can't help but think there's a big correction coming, but then the more charitable part of me remembers how much he helped my teams last year. You probably don't get much more than a mid-level starter for him. Slowey-level seems reasonable, but it would make sense to start a bit higher and work down.

[pre1322]

1) I like Hamilton over Berkman for upside, Berkman is likely safer (Hamilton scares me no matter how good he can be). Hamilton's upside>Berkman's safety, but you have to know what you want in that case. How risk tolerant are you in this case, based on who you are keepin already?

2) Jones would likely net a Slowey-level pitcher...unless you can find someone who really believes he can be a difference maker, in which case bump the SP you can get up a tier.

I also agree with the above poster on Bumgarner...that velocity drop this year just scares me. You may be able to use that in bargaining and hope that he finds some velocity again. But I've been shying away in my keepers...

Thanks for your input!

[sigriffey]

Hamilton over Berkman due to the upside, and I do think that Garret Jones should get you a solid starter ... maybe a good #3?

[footballisbetter.com]

I play in two local leagues and I haven't seen a high demand on G Jones. I believe he can be solid but other don't seem sold on his 2nd half stats from last year.

I also am looking for Berkman to bounce back from last season. He should get his BA back to around his career average. But he is an injury risk, and I do also like Hamilton's upside more. Although, Hamilton does not come without risk also.

see mine
viewtopic.php?t=404584

[rayfan4life]

I would definitely favor Berkman over Hamilton. If you weigh equal parts upside, injury, past performance, and consistency, Berkman wins 3 out of those 4 arguments - the only thing Hamilton wins is upside. My opinion is if he didn't have the great backstory and the home run derby performance, most would have given up on him a while ago. In essnce, he is a 29 year old with one half of an amazing season. Berkman will be back, and he still has a couple of good years left in him. IMO, 20% chance Hamilton outperforms Berkman this year.

Regarding SPs, I'd try to get a fringe guy with upside like Hughes. I think it dependsmore on who could use Jones' bat...you got anyone with a lot of speed and no power that might overvalue Jones based on last year's performance? Scout your teams in the league. Also, you got any pirates fans in the league? always good to try and make deals with guys who love their players.

[Seanyfever]

These are some of best responses I have got in some time at Cafe. Keep them coming. Thanks. I have replied to all links already to return the favour.

I updated his counter. Pretty clear to me. Any reason why I shouldn't. I was going to accept ASAP, but I appreciate the input of Cafe Brothers. I have McCab and Youkilis already, and G. Jones on bench. Based on sheer value, I still believe I take Berkman and adjust roster again before season begins.

[Cypher74]

Just read through this - love the counter for you. If Capps isn't an issue, you are basically dealing Blanton for Berkman, a deal I'd make every time. Plus you get to take a chance on Bumgarner. Go for it!

Help if you can?

viewtopic.php?f=26&t=404683&p=3225976#p3225976

[PinStripe Pride 718]

Thanks for the help with mine in a 14 team league i cant see a team having a better rotation then you so i would keep what u got but jones can be a monster last year or can suck like kevin maas did in the 80es for the yankees after a big year so in closing i would say stay with what u got and hope jones does it again then maybe u trade him for a 1 or 2 type starter if the other team has a derek lee that gets hurt haha

[jackie hayes]

That counter is a steal for you. I'd accept that immediately.