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2010 Darft Analysis

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2010 Darft Analysis

Postby TheRock » Fri Mar 19, 2010 11:25 pm

Well, here's what I have for projected standings:

First a note on methodology. I used this spreadsheet to track all draft picks. I've just updated it to the latest MDP data. The projections are composite rankings from several sites, so while they wouldn't reflect any of our own insights or opinions, they are a fairly good, neutral baseline.

Problem with projecting standings is we all finished out our benches differently. So I removed from the draft sheet all players except the best starting lineup available. In terms of pitching, I gave everyone 5 starting pitchers, and 3 relievers. This still leaves the problem that some benches will be more productive than others. Beerdog for instance drafted 4 closers. But I probably did him a favor leaving Lidge out of the analysis. And he still finished 1st in saves, so he's still fine.

So here they are:
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Which is a crock, no way my BA is that low. And my pitching numbers are a little low from having Webb and Lilly starting the season on the DL. I'll be ok. ;-)
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Re: 2010 Darft Analysis

Postby TheRock » Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:26 am

Lol, was just reading through last year's darft analysis thread. Some of us got it pretty close, some of us failed as badly in our analysis as we did in the draft itself. !+)

I got the top 3 right, but I actually picked 4 teams for the top 3. My 4th - beer, had a string of bad luck starting with Jose Reyes. None of my bottom 3 picks finished out of the bottom half.
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Re: 2010 Draft Analysis

Postby oscar15 » Sun Mar 21, 2010 11:16 am

I like Old_Style's projections better! Good stuff Rock.

I actually calculated K's per inning and multiplied it by 1250 (For obvious reasons). It really didn't change the standings significantly, but it did help me out.
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Re: 2010 Darft Analysis

Postby RedBullVodka » Mon Mar 22, 2010 11:52 am

I have some projections too. I'll see if I can post them a bit later. ;-D
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Re: 2010 Darft Analysis

Postby Old_Style » Mon Mar 22, 2010 12:50 pm

Alright, I'm not an Excel wiz by any means.
I keep getting an error message when I try to generate a draft sheet. compile error in hidden module: module 1. What does that mean?
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Re: 2010 Darft Analysis

Postby oscar15 » Mon Mar 22, 2010 1:15 pm

Thought I would re-post rbv survey from last year.

With apologies to Aussie Dodger for the blatant plagiarism...

1. What was your draft strategy?

2. Who do you think was the steal of the draft?

3. Who do you think was the reach of the draft?

4. Who do you think will finish in the top 3?

5. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3?

6. The best pick that you made

7. The worst pick that you made

8. What player is the biggest key to your success?

9. Your team's weak/strong points

Just copy, paste, and answer...if you so desire.
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Re: 2010 Darft Analysis

Postby oscar15 » Mon Mar 22, 2010 1:46 pm

1. What was your draft strategy? Load up on infielders and wait to fill outfield positions. When I arrived at a point early in the draft when an OF was the logical choice, I decided to go with the best SP available (Haren).

2. Who do you think was the steal of the draft? My personal steal - hopefully, one of the many OF I loaded up on late. League wide - Old Style kept plucking SP off the board (Wandy Rod, J. Sanchez, S. Baker) right before I planned to grab them. Don't know if any of them will be the steal of the draft but they were stolen from me! I'm a Braves fan, so seeing Chipper fall to rd 12 was difficult to watch. I hope he is the steal of the draft. Overall, there were several good picks by all the members of the league.

3. Who do you think was the reach of the draft? Personal - Jermaine Dye, I was "distracted" when my pick came up. If I would have performed a simple player news search, like I usually do before I hit the "draft" button I would not have taken Dye. My fault and my responsibility. League wide - I really can't find any that stand out

4. Who do you think will finish in the top 3? Straight from projectons: Cheesebeger 89, Beerdogs 83, Old_Style 70. Of course in season moves are important - Rock and Old_Style always seem to be one step ahead of the league

5. Who do you think will finish in the bottom 3? Straight from projections: Third Day 43, Amazing O 38, Shockers 38. I know shocker personally, no way in hell will he allow his team to finish last. One of the most competitive individuals I have ever met.

6. The best pick that you made. I like the Hamilton pick in RD 7 and the Loney pick in RD 16.

7. The worst pick that you made. Jermaine Dye.

8. What player is the biggest key to your success? Josh Hamilton and Jimmy Rollins having bouce back years.

9. Your team's weak/strong points. Weakness by Category SB, K, W, Strength HR, RBI, R, Weakness by position OF, SP Strength 1B, 2B, RP

Just copy, paste, and answer...if you so desire.
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Re: 2010 Darft Analysis

Postby TheRock » Mon Mar 22, 2010 2:03 pm

Old_Style wrote:Alright, I'm not an Excel wiz by any means.
I keep getting an error message when I try to generate a draft sheet. compile error in hidden module: module 1. What does that mean?


I would expect oscar to not be able to make it work, but you? :-D

No idea. Make sure you enable security and all that jazz. Ask in the thread in leftovers.
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Re: 2010 Darft Analysis

Postby RedBullVodka » Mon Mar 22, 2010 4:56 pm

This takes account of all players including bench, so probably distorts it a bit, as teams like mine have more pitchers, and others more hitters.

Team R HR RBI SB AVG Tot ERA WHIP W S K Tot
RBV xxxxx 2 7 2 4 12 27 8 6 12 9 12 47 74
SeanCasey 11 12 12 10 7 52 3 2 5 3 2 15 67
Embolus 4 1 3 7 10 25 7 5 6 10 9 37 62
beerdogs 5 2 6 6 4 23 9 9 10 12 10 50 73
cheesebeger 12 9 10 12 5 48 10 12 9 4 7 42 90
oscar15 9 11 11 1 2 34 11 8 1 5 3 28 62
third day 7 10 8 3 9 37 1 1 1 1 5 9 46
shockers 3 4 5 8 3 23 2 3 3 8 4 20 43
old style 6 8 9 2 6 31 12 11 11 5 11 50 81
amazin 10 4 4 9 1 28 4 7 4 7 6 28 56
rock xxxxx 1 4 1 5 11 22 5 10 6 11 8 40 62
thomas 8 3 7 11 8 37 6 4 6 2 1 19 56

If anyone who knows how to line up tables that would be cool...
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Re: 2010 Darft Analysis

Postby RedBullVodka » Mon Mar 22, 2010 5:02 pm

This version is with just hitting starters and removing the last pitcher drafted until you get just above the 1250 inns limit (some teams don't reach it according to my projections). Beerdogs and Old Style have around 1330 inns, the rest are around the 1250 limit.

Team R HR RBI SB AVG Tot ERA WHIP W S K Tot
RBV 11 11 10 3 10 45 8 6 11 9 11 45 90
SeanCasey 5 6 8 9 5 33 3 2 7 3 2 17 50
Embolus 9 1 4 11 7 32 10 7 5 10 9 41 73
beerdogs 2 3 3 4 4 16 9 8 10 12 10 49 65
cheesebeger 12 4 5 10 11 42 4 9 9 4 8 34 76
oscar15 7 9 11 2 3 32 11 10 1 5 5 32 64
third day 6 7 6 4 12 35 1 1 1 1 6 10 45
shockers 3 10 9 8 2 32 2 4 4 7 4 21 53
old style 1 12 12 1 6 32 12 12 12 5 12 53 85
amazin 4 5 2 7 1 19 5 5 6 8 7 31 50
rock 9 8 7 6 9 39 6 11 3 11 3 34 73
thomas 8 2 1 12 8 31 7 3 8 2 1 21 52
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