ichirosan wrote:Do you REALLY expect him to bat 30 HRs again? Almost everybody believes this was nothing but a power spike, and that he's much closer to a 20 HR guy.
For starters he's only 26 years old, so there is no reason to think he's on any kind of decline due to his age. Secondly, "none of his batted-ball rates changed significantly last year – he continued to be a groundball/line-drive machine (47.8 GB percentage, 22.6 LD) – but suddenly 20.4 percent of his flyballs cleared the fence."
Translation, Mauer had developed a more powerful stroke, without sacraficing his ridiculous batting average.
AND he's a catcher. Catcher is really the only position that has only one legitimate top 25 pick. After Mauer in the first round the only other catcher worth taking in any of the first 3-4 rounds is Victor Martinez. Tell me another position with that much of a drop off.
ichirosan wrote:Do you REALLY expect him to bat 30 HRs again? Almost everybody believes this was nothing but a power spike, and that he's much closer to a 20 HR guy.
For starters he's only 26 years old, so there is no reason to think he's on any kind of decline due to his age. Secondly, "none of his batted-ball rates changed significantly last year – he continued to be a groundball/line-drive machine (47.8 GB percentage, 22.6 LD) – but suddenly 20.4 percent of his flyballs cleared the fence."
Translation, Mauer had developed a more powerful stroke, without sacraficing his ridiculous batting average.
AND he's a catcher. Catcher is really the only position that has only one legitimate top 25 pick. After Mauer in the first round the only other catcher worth taking in any of the first 3-4 rounds is Victor Martinez. Tell me another position with that much of a drop off.
FYI, Mauer had 11 HR which fell in the "just enough" category. While A-Rod has the same number of "just enough" HR, we do know is that he plays half of the season in a park where the wind currents and dimensions are favorable for line drive or pull hit homeruns. It remains to be seen how neutral or favorable Target Field is, but also consider it's an open air stadium where the ball might not travel as well in say, April, when it's still relatively cold.
There's also reason to suggest Mauer doesn't hit for great power on inside pitches. It makes sense in a way, because if pitchers were tailing out and away on him, Mauer's approach is usually to drive the ball to the opposite alleys and to which does with fine success.
While none of his batted ball rates have changed, there's also significant doubt as to whether or not he can sustain that kind of power, as in the 25-30 HR variety.
Also, I think V-Mart can outproduce Mauer's totals in RBI and HR and he can be had two rounds later.
The Artful Dodger wrote:Also, I think V-Mart can outproduce Mauer's totals in RBI and HR and he can be had two rounds later.
Martinez has never hit as many HRs in a season as Mauer did last year.
Essentially you're saying Mauer has hit his peak at 26 years old? Or is it more reasonable that Mauer who is such a fluent hitter, as proof by his batting titles, has developed and matured physically and developed a more powerful batting stroke, without sacraficing his ability to make contact with the baseball.
Q: Why does Albert Pujols get drafted so much further ahead of Adam Dunn? Both players average roughly the same power #s.
A: Pujols hits for a much higher average.
So go ahead and draft Victor Martinez who will bat 40-50 points lower than Mauer, and will lose at bats to a very crowded Red Sox team that consistantly gives players extra rest.
The Artful Dodger wrote:Also, I think V-Mart can outproduce Mauer's totals in RBI and HR and he can be had two rounds later.
Martinez has never hit as many HRs in a season as Mauer did last year.
Essentially you're saying Mauer has hit his peak at 26 years old? Or is it more reasonable that Mauer who is such a fluent hitter, as proof by his batting titles, has developed and matured physically and developed a more powerful batting stroke, without sacraficing his ability to make contact with the baseball.
Q: Why does Albert Pujols get drafted so much further ahead of Adam Dunn? Both players average roughly the same power #s.
A: Pujols hits for a much higher average.
So go ahead and draft Victor Martinez who will bat 40-50 points lower than Mauer, and will lose at bats to a very crowded Red Sox team that consistantly gives players extra rest.
Didn't David Wright hit just 10 HR at 26 years old?
Sure, that's like comparing apples to oranges and usually, I dislike player analogies. Point is, age is still a number, at the end of the day. What age is an indicator that a player can either 1) sustain previous years production or 2) improve upon that. Conversely, age isn't manifest destiny for players to improve nor is it a death sentence for a player's production to just fall off. Sure, citing Wright is an extreme example, but again, you have players who reach their peak before the age of 27 and don't come back to it. Again, a player's age is a good indicator for improvement/busting, but it's surely not gospel.
Back on point with Mauer, it's possible he's just hitting his stride, sure, but given his track record for not hitting for power, there's also a good chance he doesn't. Like I said, he had nearly a dozen HR that were "just enough's", usually an indicator that perhaps a certain percentage of his HR had just cleared the fences. It seems on empirical data that Mauer doesn't hit for great power on inside pitches. FWIW, from mid-August to the end of September, Mauer only hit 3 HR. Perhaps pitchers adjusted into challenging him inside with offspeed pitches instead of trying to throw him middle and away.
Oh, and I'm aware of the average disparity. However, one fault in your argument is you're basically saying it's a given Mauer will hit for a superior average to V-Mart. I don't doubt that at all. The question is, how much? Batting average is the one category that fluctuates most from year to year. You have hitters who have unlucky BABIP and those who have a more inflated one than usual or some that hold steady.
If Mauer has a .310-320 average, then is he really a massive upgrade over say, V-Mart, who for the record had a .336 average in 211 AB with the Red Sox? In a better lineup and ballpark in Boston, it's possible he has a slight improvement across the board and a good bet to hit a .300 average. Also, Mauer's success comes from taking the ball the other way or to center; it's just natural tendency for a pull-hitter. Now, if the defense makes a shift on three fielders, he could record outs which could have gone for hits. He doesn't have much success taking the ball to right field and the % of line drives going to right isn't as prolific.
Also, catchers do tend to carry some injury risk. Just like in '07, Mauer missed 43 games. V-Mart will see time at 1B and DH, which could entail him not missing so many games as you expect.
With all these factors, there is significant risk in taking Mauer with a first round pick, let alone a top 5 one. He's surely worth a 2nd round pick, but I'd rather have players who have had a better track record of posting 1st/2nd round overall stats and the upside to maintain/improve upon that.
Victor Martinez is a career .300 hitter. Mauer is a career .327 hitter. Martinez has never hit more than 25 HRs. Traditionally better parks help power numbers not batting average. You're comparing a low ball estimate for Mauer who took a giant leap forward last year to a high end projection from Martinez who has essentially hit the same every year, with only a fluctuation in power numbers.
Would you pass on Chase Utley for Ian Kinsler with a later pick?
So you recognize comparing one player at a given age to another is comparing apples to oranges. Lets compare one apple to the bunch...Most experts use 27 as the age when players enter the prime of their careers. In fact ESPN, CBS Sports, and MLB.com all post a list of players at 27 years old to target for fantasy purposes. I wouldn't think the expert writers would make such a suggestion if there wasn't some correlation between performance and age.
And if you want to talk ballparks, the Metrodome wasn't exactly a hitter friendly park to begin with. So its not the same as say David Wright who went from Shea to Citi. The new dimensions of Target Field are almost exactly the same so I guess those "lucky" homeruns he barely hit over the wall won't necessarily fall short. If you're going to account for the change in humidity/temp and the negative effect the colder weather will have on the flight of the ball, then conversely you have to consider the warmer weather as well, which will work in favor of hitters.
Another advantage Mauer will have over Martinez is opposing pitching staffs. Mauer will have the advantage of facing weaker AL central staffs as opposed to having to face the Yankees and Rays staffs in 36 games.
Last edited by Wadderboiz on Fri Mar 19, 2010 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
fierro33 wrote:is this a 10 teamer meaning u have the 10 th and 11th?
if u have the 10th and the 13th i might go ahead and take lince at 10 andd then whoever is left out of the top 1b at 13th...i wouldnt consider mauer...i would take longo ahead of tulo/mauer/kinsler etc
Wadderboiz wrote:Victor Martinez is a career .300 hitter. Mauer is a career .327 hitter. Martinez has never hit more than 25 HRs. Traditionally better parks help power numbers not batting average. You're comparing a low ball estimate for Mauer who took a giant leap forward last year to a high end projection from Martinez who has essentially hit the same every year, with only a fluctuation in power numbers.
Would you pass on Chase Utley for Ian Kinsler with a later pick?
My problem is, you're assuming a high end projection for Mauer for this season and that alone, when there are a number of factors as to why he could fall short. Mauer is a .327 career hitter, but there's also a bit of a deviation between those years. Like I said, batting average is the one stat that fluctuates most season to season. Mauer hit a low of .294 on more than 450 PA and that was a season due to injury. Not to mention, Mauer is an injury risk.
Also, the Utley/Kinsler question analogy is unnecessary. Of course, I'd take Utley over Kinsler and Mauer over V-Mart. What I'm saying is, I can get a player with more secure first round potential than Mauer AND get V-Mart a few rounds later. In so doing, I still fill in the same scarce position with a catcher who will post similar RBI and a good chance of 20-25 HR and beyond that given a better lineup and ballpark situation (not to mention a track record for hitting in between 20-25 HR). If Mauer doesn't hit for a .310 average or over, then really he isn't a massive improvement over V-Mart.
I've already noted why there's a good chance Mauer won't duplicate last year's power production and why it's possible his average can dip (i.e. pitching adjustments, defensive switches) and so, I won't reiterate those points.
For the record Artful Dodger is right. Catcher is a taxing position (knees) which means injury risk. Mauer is a fine player and I wish him the best but last year may have been a career year. And yes at the ripe young age of 26. Either way I wouldnt take a catcher that early. I would take Tulo over kinsler but not by much. SS is not as deep as 2B I think, and though Tulo has had injury issues I feel he's less of a risk than Kinsler. Take Tulo and get Beckham later, he'll get 2B availability within the first two weeks. It's a long season
Cafe Home
Fantasy Football
Fantasy Basketball
Fantasy Hockey
by Wadderboiz » Fri Mar 19, 2010 4:58 pm 
