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Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Matthias » Sat May 21, 2011 2:36 pm

In short, fantasy isn't a game where you look at your roster at the end of the year and say, "whose players look the best." It's about what stats you acquire over all of your players over the entire year and after several years of looking for the unheralded gems or sexy young rookies or players finding a resurgence, I've found that the best thing that those players are good for are destroying the value of pitchers of actual quality that you have drafted. So I just don't get involved with them any more.

Hey, I have Brett Anderson and Josh Beckett and Jeremy Hellickson on my team. But they're the back end of my rotation (or at least, were drafted as the back end). And I even felt a little uncomfortable drafting Hellickson. That's what I'm saying. I don't play risky with 2 or 3 spots at the end of the draft. I might not have any of the top 5 starters, but I'm not owning any of the bottom 30. Because the damage that they can do is often minimized and underappreciated. Hence my new simple rule.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby fezzik » Sat May 21, 2011 3:18 pm

General:

1. As has been mentioned, don't wait too long on your sleepers. If there's someone you really want, reach early enough to make sure you get him...without completely overextending.

2. Stay active.

3. If you aren't playing with standard settings, understand how the differences affect your teams performance.

Roto:
1. Draft durable guys. Stay on top of any injuries or missed playing time, as you want to maximize plate appearances. Having a guy who only plays most of the time, like Seth Smith, is great...just make sure he's only in your lineup when he's scheduled to start. It can be tedious to track a guy like this during the course of a season, though beneficial in the long run. It's difficult to maximize your games played once you get behind.

2. Don't punt categories.

3. Assuming an IP limit and somewhat standard cats, try and get solid K/9 guys.

4. Understand the format...winning era by 0.50 gets you no more points than winning it by .10...apply this understanding when making adjustments to your roster/trading.

H2H:
1. If you play 6x6 or more, don't be afraid to punt a category like SBs or Saves...or whichever category affects the fewest other categories (usually it's the two I mentioned). It can even work in 5x5, though it's slightly less effective.

2. I generally focus more on hitting here, as pitching doesn't typically have an IP cap in H2H leagues. As a result I usually draft one offensive sub and fill the rest of my bench with SPs who I can spot start...or as an alternative, I can overwhelm the pitching counting stats when there's no hope in competing with the ratio categories. This can be done without churning or streaming pitchers, simply because my bench is loaded with SPs. In a league with weekly lineup changes (which I actually prefer, but hasn't caught on much), you have to draft a much more balanced team and this tip should be disregarded. ;-D
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby SpecialFNK » Sat May 21, 2011 6:56 pm

staying active is probably the most important. you would have to draft one hell of a great team if you don't plan on staying very active. if you want to win, IMO you NEED to be active on your team every single day.

know your league set up. I'm in a private league with 2 DL spots. there are maybe 4 or 5 owners who have multiple players on the DL but only 1 of them in an actual DL spot. that's a free extra roster spot right there.

look at players splits, both pitchers and hitters. Wandy Rodriguez can be one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball, if used right. he hasn't had an ERA at home higher than 3 since 2006. Padres hitters aren't usually as good at home and Padres pitchers usually are better at home. there are many different hitters that are much better either at home or on the road. if you have a deep bench there are some lesser type players you could abuse by only using them at home/on the road.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby AussieDodger » Sat May 21, 2011 11:12 pm

1. Understand WHAT your players are.
Example: M.Moreland can't hit LHP (yet) so you bench him against them.
Example: Look at the splits for your pitchers, sometimes RHP get absolutely bombed by LHB because they don't have a pitch the works against them. Avoid him facing teams with good LH hitters, or for a RP, understand that they're really a ROOGY and may not close.

2. Try to understand what a players team thinks of him.
Example: R.Betancourt will ONLY pitch the 8th, and won't be closer because he can't hack it.
Example: Various LHB like K.Fukudome who are benched against LH SP 100% of the time.
Example: A young guy like A.Craig, who STL are trying to mash into any fielding position because they rate his bat.

3. Never, EVER ever give up. There is always something to be gained, whether you're contending or not. Especially in dynasty/keepers. KEEP BUILDING dangit. :-b
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Ender » Sun May 22, 2011 1:56 am

Never play in a daily lineup league unless you have tons of free time on your hands.

That is the #1 rule I've learned since it is an overwhelming disadvantage if you can't babysit your lineup 10 times a day.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby wrveres » Sun May 22, 2011 1:59 am

thejusman1 wrote:It's so much harder to find a Prince Fielder in the later rounds than a good SP.
agreed. i can always find a starter or three on the wire. trying filling SS right now in any league. Did your 3B go down, there ain't much out there. Even outfield can thin out quickly, depending upon how deep the rosters run.
Matthias wrote:* In roto, the pitchers you don't draft are as important as the pitchers you do.
that depends upon whether or not you have a bench. in real roto with 23 man rosters and no bench, this would be very true. but if i have a bench of any sort i can sit that starter, taking the sting out of those 7ER night versus the Yankees.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Matthias » Sun May 22, 2011 9:58 am

wrveres wrote:
Matthias wrote:* In roto, the pitchers you don't draft are as important as the pitchers you do.
that depends upon whether or not you have a bench. in real roto with 23 man rosters and no bench, this would be very true. but if i have a bench of any sort i can sit that starter, taking the sting out of those 7ER night versus the Yankees.

I've never had success trying to guess good night/bad night for starters. It seems any time I bench them against the Yankees, they go 7 innings with 1 run. And then the times I try to spot start them against the Twins, they score 8 runs in 3 innings. So I just throw my guys out there no matter what.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Matthias » Sun May 22, 2011 10:19 am

Matthias wrote:In short, fantasy isn't a game where you look at your roster at the end of the year and say, "whose players look the best." It's about what stats you acquire over all of your players over the entire year and after several years of looking for the unheralded gems or sexy young rookies or players finding a resurgence, I've found that the best thing that those players are good for are destroying the value of pitchers of actual quality that you have drafted. So I just don't get involved with them any more.

Hey, I have Brett Anderson and Josh Beckett and Jeremy Hellickson on my team. But they're the back end of my rotation (or at least, were drafted as the back end). And I even felt a little uncomfortable drafting Hellickson. That's what I'm saying. I don't play risky with 2 or 3 spots at the end of the draft. I might not have any of the top 5 starters, but I'm not owning any of the bottom 30. Because the damage that they can do is often minimized and underappreciated. Hence my new simple rule.

Btw, a guy in our league who normally does pretty well drafting pitchers is hurting in the pitching categories despite having Felix and Hamels leading his staff because so far this season he has gone through: Aaron Harang, Tom Gorezelanny, Jesse Litsch, Jason Vargas, Kevin Corriea, Jake Westbrook, Zach Britton, and Derek Lowe trying to find someone off of the wire. And they've all ding'ed his ratios during their stay on his roster.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby Matthias » Sun May 22, 2011 4:09 pm

Perfect example from today.

One guy in my league has 2 SPs going.

First pitcher, Roy Oswalt: 96 PC, 7 INN, 8 HA, 2 BBI, 3 K, ER, 1.429 WHIP, L, 7 IPCG, 1.286 RAA. Even with the loss, a pretty good line. Kinda high WHIP but not too bad.

Second pitcher, Edison Volquez: 76 PC, 2.2 INN, 7 HA, 4 BBI, 3 K, 6 ER, 4.125 WHIP, 2.6667 IPCG, 23.625 RAA with the L to come. Ooof to the oooooooffff.

Composite line: 9.2 INN, 15 HA, 6 BBI, 6 K, 7 ER, 2.172 WHIP, L, 9.6667 IPCG, 7.448 RAA.

Volquez completely negated Oswalt's value. No single batter has that big of a negative effect.
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Re: Simple Rules to doing well in fantasy

Postby kab21 » Sun May 22, 2011 7:50 pm

For hitters I tend to look at basic hitting ability as much as the fantasy stats. Fantasy stats I'll focus on are BA/OBP and HR's since R/RBI's should correlate pretty well with those. And I look for track record. For example I thought Asdrubal Cabrera and Yunel Escobar were pretty good hitters despite their horrendous 2010 season and I have one or both in all 3 leagues this year drafted late.

I like to load up on pitchers in rds 5-15. Great value. And again I look at the peripherals and basic pitching ability more than just the past year's fantasy stats. K rate and FIP/xFIP probably get the most focus.

I fill up the bottom of my roster with flyers that I don't necessarily have to depend on but can either provide a big boost or have nice trade value. this is more relevant in shallower leagues since the WW is pretty good obviously.
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